seattlejazzfan
Well-Known Member
because they have the pieces.
The Lauri Thread
- Thread starter SoberasHotRod
- Start date
I think Lauri has played great enough you can say "No Ausuar, No Lauri" outright.
seattlejazzfan
Well-Known Member
i'm convinced - as of three minutes ago - the jazz shouldn't trade lauri* (i reserve the right to change my mind three minutes or more from now). it's kinda crazy to trade a 28 year old star, in the hopes you can draft somebody as good as him. here is what you do: you hover around a .300 to .350 winning percentage (they are at .357 now and will be at about .300 by the end of november), get lauri his all-star game, then sit him from mid-Feb, lose 18 of 22 games to finish the season, and get your top 8 pick. that way you keep your all-star AND draft somebody as good as him. somebody on JF made the point the other day that nba players are staying really good into their mid-30s and it's a relevant point. lauri isn't on the same timeline as the young players, but there will be crossover where can still be a star and if 2 or 3 of these guys pan out, they can/will be stars at the same time and they can contend.
*unless they get absolutely blown away - meaning if it's detroit, ausar being the centerpiece plus a **** ton of picks. if it's SAS, Castle or Harper as the centerpiece and **** ton of picks. iow, unless you are getting near guaranteed young star in return, you hang up the phone.
holland, ivey, and bunch of back end of the first draft picks are not close to that.
*unless they get absolutely blown away - meaning if it's detroit, ausar being the centerpiece plus a **** ton of picks. if it's SAS, Castle or Harper as the centerpiece and **** ton of picks. iow, unless you are getting near guaranteed young star in return, you hang up the phone.
holland, ivey, and bunch of back end of the first draft picks are not close to that.
Tony is great but has he ever scooped Shams on a story?
Just playing devil's advocate:
- If Ainge is true to his word we won't be sitting Lauri just to lose games. (Personally, I can't believe he won't intervene if we are close to losing our pick)
- What you are describing is a 23 win season. Currently there are 7 teams that are on pace to win less than 23 wins, which would put us in the 8th best odds or about a 40% chance of losing out on our pick. (Teams will start winning games and I do believe 23 wins should finish bottom 6 with a 96% chance of keeping our pick)
Handlogten's Heros
Well-Known Member
2019 Award Winner
20-21 Award Winner
2022 Award Winner
2023 Award Winner
2024 Award Winner
2025 Award Winner
2025 Prediction Contest Winner
If we lose our next 3... which we should... a bunch of the teams under us start playing each other and it will look a little better for us.
I think Will playing Cody more is a little bit of a sign that we may be trending towards tank management. If we can lose the Kings game we have coming up on the schedule we should be on track for bottom 5/6 finish by time we break for the NBA cup. We need to do some shady work like sitting Lauri in some of the games of back to backs with tightness and soreness. Need to get Taylor out there for Anderson and Love. Throttle back Svi a bit.
A 3-4 week hamstring pull for a key guy would be something I wouldn't complain about lol. Kings/Pels/Pacers/Hornets all getting or about to get key guys back. I think we are okay but no idea why we love playing with fire.
Once Lauri gets the all star nod we will see tankery
Handlogten's Heros
Well-Known Member
2019 Award Winner
20-21 Award Winner
2022 Award Winner
2023 Award Winner
2024 Award Winner
2025 Award Winner
2025 Prediction Contest Winner
We play Dallas 3 times in January. AS reserves announced Jan 30. I think we need to be doing a little nonsense pre-AS announcement. Maybe AD is back and proving his trade value by then.
Then rest Nurk.
I know people say he helps the tank, but not having any kind of rim presence would make it pretty difficult to win games with 48 minutes of Love/Filipowski/Hendricks center minutes.
Handlogten's Heros
Well-Known Member
2019 Award Winner
20-21 Award Winner
2022 Award Winner
2023 Award Winner
2024 Award Winner
2025 Award Winner
2025 Prediction Contest Winner
Svi/Nurk... a game or two of back tightness for Lauri.
FWIW, I think 23 wins is the magic number. I went back and looked and only once in the last 25 years would 23 wins get you any worse than 6th best odds, and most likely lands you in the 3rd to 5th best odds.
Last edited:
I don't agree with the idea that we should have to be blown away by an offer for Lauri. IMO, that indicates that you're in an especially strong situation with Lauri. Having a young/tanking team with a pick protection is not some super desirable position to be in, and you could make the argument that because of the pick protections we are in a unique position to favor trading Lauri. Nobody is proposing trades for Lauri to other tanking teams because Lauri and tanking teams just don't match.
For me personally, I don't have a specific desire to win with Lauri or any kind of timeline. My position would be to look for a fair trade with the understanding that there is an extra incentive to trade him now because of the tank. But if we're going to step into reality, it will indeed take a "blown away" type of offer to get Lauri. That comes from the desire to win more quickly and not because it's necessarily the right move. If Lauri is worth $10, it would be worth it sell him for $9 dollars if you think the added tanking value gives you $2 back. That's my stance, but I know that's not the ownership/FO stance.
"Why would they trade 28 PPG away" is only a thing because there's a desire to stop tanking. For any other team that would be in our position, the obvious counterpoint is "why is there a great player on a tanking team". It's very easy from my POV to understand that the Jazz want to get out of tanking because of all the reporting from Tony and others. I don't think the national media guys understand that, but it makes sense without the inside understanding. If the Jazz had no rush to end the tank it would make all the sense in the world to trade Lauri.
For me personally, I don't have a specific desire to win with Lauri or any kind of timeline. My position would be to look for a fair trade with the understanding that there is an extra incentive to trade him now because of the tank. But if we're going to step into reality, it will indeed take a "blown away" type of offer to get Lauri. That comes from the desire to win more quickly and not because it's necessarily the right move. If Lauri is worth $10, it would be worth it sell him for $9 dollars if you think the added tanking value gives you $2 back. That's my stance, but I know that's not the ownership/FO stance.
"Why would they trade 28 PPG away" is only a thing because there's a desire to stop tanking. For any other team that would be in our position, the obvious counterpoint is "why is there a great player on a tanking team". It's very easy from my POV to understand that the Jazz want to get out of tanking because of all the reporting from Tony and others. I don't think the national media guys understand that, but it makes sense without the inside understanding. If the Jazz had no rush to end the tank it would make all the sense in the world to trade Lauri.
Tanktastic
Well-Known Member
If Lauri is playing like this, he isn't sitting. Last season, sure, it was down the drain personally as well. But if he's averaging anything close to 30? No way.
Handlogten's Heros
Well-Known Member
2019 Award Winner
20-21 Award Winner
2022 Award Winner
2023 Award Winner
2024 Award Winner
2025 Award Winner
2025 Prediction Contest Winner
I would take 23 in a second.
If you rest Nurk you're likely pulling up a player from the G-League who actually helps us win.
seattlejazzfan
Well-Known Member
damn.
Oscar isnt helping us win more games than Nurk, stop.
The Warriors offered multiple first round picks and multiple pick swaps along with Moses Moody for Lauri Markkanen. We wanted all the picks and all the swaps plus Brandin Podziemski.
That to me seems like 3 picks and 2 swaps. Or 2 picks and 3 swaps type of offer.
I’m not sure how 4 picks and 4 swaps just based off of pure volume isn’t better. Are we sure Detroit is going to be good in 2030/2031/2032? I’m not. Controlling a team’s draft for 8 years straight is bonkers. Something bad is bound to happen eventually.
That to me seems like 3 picks and 2 swaps. Or 2 picks and 3 swaps type of offer.
I’m not sure how 4 picks and 4 swaps just based off of pure volume isn’t better. Are we sure Detroit is going to be good in 2030/2031/2032? I’m not. Controlling a team’s draft for 8 years straight is bonkers. Something bad is bound to happen eventually.
Schrödinger's Gerbil
Well-Known Member
Why is Lowe so fixated on shipping Lauri off to Detroit?
Because that’s the industry: guys like him build careers by issuing grand, authoritative proclamations about what teams should do, handing down verdicts from the studio desk like NBA Solomon, without ever having to live with a single consequence of being wrong. It’s all abstract chess moves to them. Draft picks, assets, timelines… none of it has a human cost when you're not the one sitting in the arena watching your team trade away its top players in exchange for “flexibility” and “future upside.”
For fans, however, those decisions matter. Losing high-end talent isn’t a parlor game; it’s years of watching a team struggle because someone thought a theoretical return sounded clever on a podcast. Whether the Jazz get better or whether the fan experience improves is, frankly, background noise for Lowe. It’s not part of the entertainment product he’s selling.
It’s the sports-media equivalent of romantic advice: incredibly easy to dispense, infinitely harder to follow, and if it blows up in your face and condemns fans to yet more years of losing basketball? Well, that’s your problem, not theirs.