Game Thread Feb 09, 2026 05:30PM MT: Utah Jazz @ Miami Heat

[MTS]

I’d estimate the odds of keeping the pick are around 70%. That’s a really good number if you have those odds cumulatively in many equations, but if you’re only getting one roll of the dice then 30% is not an insignificant number.

In order to get to 70%, mathematically you'd have to believe there's a whopping roughly 77% chance of one of these two things happening:

1. The Pels, with no incentive to tank, do not win more than the Jazz in psycho tank mode, AND at least two of the Grizzlies/Bucks/Mavericks win less than the Jazz.
2. The Pels, with no incentive to tank, DO win more than the Jazz in psycho tank mode, BUT all three of the Grizzlies/Bucks/Mavericks win less than the Jazz.

Is that what you believe?

 

[MTS]

I see one single post saying they hate it. From Shad. In the context of him saying we are going to lose Kessler. So if we keep kessler then zero people who hate it?
Tremendous Downside hates everything so he doesn't count.

I already told you I didn't grab literally every post where people disliked the trade, because there were so many. I took less than a minute to grab a small handful.

If it only counts if people literally say "I hate the trade" instead of expressing clear dislike for the trade, then you're intentionally missing the point.

 

[fishonjazz]

I already told you I didn't grab literally every post where people disliked the trade, because there were so many. I took less than a minute to grab a small handful.

If it only counts if people literally say "I hate the trade" instead of expressing clear dislike for the trade, then you're intentionally missing the point.

You used the word hate.
I saw many posts with concerns about keeping the draft pick, fit issues, etc. Didn't see any people who really hated the trade though. Again. There is thread specifically made to grade it and there are zero D or F grades so apparently people didn't hate it enough to give it a failing grade.

 

[fishonjazz]

In order to get to 70%, mathematically you'd have to believe there's a whopping roughly 77% chance of one of these two things happening:

1. The Pels, with no incentive to tank, do not win more than the Jazz in psycho tank mode, AND at least two of the Grizzlies/Bucks/Mavericks win less than the Jazz.
2. The Pels, with no incentive to tank, DO win more than the Jazz in psycho tank mode, BUT all three of the Grizzlies/Bucks/Mavericks win less than the Jazz.

Is that what you believe?

What is psycho tank mode and when are the jazz going to do that?

 

[MTS]

You used the word hate.
I saw many posts with concerns about keeping the draft pick, fit issues, etc. Didn't see any people who really hated the trade though. Again. There is thread specifically made to grade it and there are zero D or F grades so apparently people didn't hate it enough to give it a failing grade.

Fish, the context of my post made it very obvious that my point was people disliked the trade when they should have been thrilled about it.

I'm sorry your brain is getting impossibly stuck on the word "hate", next time I'll be sure to give your ability to spot obvious hyperbole less credit.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

You used the word hate.
I saw many posts with concerns about keeping the draft pick, fit issues, etc. Didn't see any people who really hated the trade though. Again. There is thread specifically made to grade it and there are zero D or F grades so apparently people didn't hate it enough to give it a failing grade.

Bruh if you reading jom's post as anything but hate for the trade you are on crack

 

[MTS]

What is psycho tank mode and when are the jazz going to do that?

Do you think the Jazz are doing everything they can to lose games?

If not, then you can answer the question for yourself.

If you do, then that goes in direct opposition to the people complaining.

 

[fishonjazz]

Bruh if you reading jom's post as anything but hate for the trade you are on crack

Ya I have him on ignore just like Tremendous Downside. Some dudes are never gonna be happy about anything.

 

[fishonjazz]

Do you think the Jazz are doing everything they can to lose games?

If not, then you can answer the question for yourself.

If you do, then that goes in direct opposition to the people complaining.

Nope. So then there is the other question. When is that there psycho tank gonna show up?
I personally dont think the psycho tank every shows up.
I could see them sit a healthy lauri, jjj, nurk for some games here and there. But I dont see them shutting them dudes down for the season. I also dont think they will sit a healthy Keyonte for any games.

 

[footawn]

I’m going to be so happy when we can talk real basketball again next season.

 

[MTS]

Nope. So then there is the other question. When is that there psycho tank gonna show up?
I personally dont think the psycho tank every shows up.
I could see them sit a healthy lauri, jjj, nurk for some games here and there. But I dont see them shutting them dudes down for the season. I also dont think they will sit a healthy Keyonte for any games.

Why do you believe this?

 

[NUMBERICA]

Anything above a 1.2% chance of losing the pick is unacceptably high. Those are the odds the Mavs had of landing #1, so that’s my measuring stick (whether or not the league pulled **** to make that happen).

We need to be targeting 5 and have a no-way-in-hell attitude about sliding back. That’s not something you get to determine by tanking really hard in one game. We have two months of this **** left, so you bet your *** I resent “it’s time to celebrate” type expressions.