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Obama Might Lose This

Scat said:
Looking at Stoked's favorite poll site is interesting. It has gone from predominantly blue just 3 weeks ago to predominantly red.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/e...us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html
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Obama has a lead in electoral votes, 201 to 191.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html

On their toss-ups, I hear Obama has basically conceded North Carolina, while Romney has basically conceded Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. That would make it 247-206.
 
Obama is winning or tied in Ohio in every major poll - some outside the margin of error. He's also trending slightly upwards while Romney is flat.

Anything can happen in the next week and a half; but if the election were today, I can't see Obama losing Ohio.
 
They both better get themselves on Leno, Letterman, Fallon, and Conan to finish out strong.
The one with the better late night appearances will win.
 
We said months ago that women would decide this one and that seems correct still. The Obama camp is clearly clinging to the various woman's rights straw arguments & doing a pretty good job at it.


Give Romney all the states he has a very good shot at winning--Florida (29), N. Carolina (15), Colorado (9), & Virginia (13)--and you're only up to 257. Romney has to either swing Ohio's 18, or a combination of multiple states. New Hampshire + Nevada + Iowa seems quite the long shot.

Romney needs to do something bold to show he has real ideas.
 
franklin said:
We said months ago that women would decide this one and that seems correct still. The Obama camp is clearly clinging to the various woman's rights straw arguments & doing a pretty good job at it.


Give Romney all the states he has a very good shot at winning--Florida (29), N. Carolina (15), Colorado (9), & Virginia (13)--and you're only up to 257. Romney has to either swing Ohio's 18, or a combination of multiple states. New Hampshire + Nevada + Iowa seems quite the long shot.

Romney needs to do something bold to show he has real ideas.
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FL, NC, VA are safely in the Romney column. OH, NV, CO & WI are a tossup. Looks like Obama's firewall states are now Iowa, State 52 and State 57.
 
Scat said:
FL, NC, VA are safely in the Romney column. OH, NV, CO & WI are a tossup. Looks like Obama's firewall states are now Iowa, State 52 and State 57.
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Where are you getting your info?

Florida is about as "safe" for Romney as Iowa is for Obama. The candidates have an edge in those state's but it isn't insurmountable. Virginia and Colorado are the two closest races in the country. Both states are effectively tied, but you have VA as safe for Romney and CO as a toss-up?

Romney has almost zero chance of winning Wisconsin, and you have it listed as a tossup? New Hampshire isn't even listed.

I understand that Romney's campaign is trying very hard to project that it's momentum from the first debate is still rolling but that's simply not the case. Although I have very much enjoyed the war on quants over the last few days since they don't conform to Fox's favored narrative.
 
Sirkickyass said:
Where are you getting your info?

Florida is about as "safe" for Romney as Iowa is for Obama. The candidates have an edge in those state's but it isn't insurmountable. Virginia and Colorado are the two closest races in the country. Both states are effectively tied, but you have VA as safe for Romney and CO as a toss-up?

Romney has almost zero chance of winning Wisconsin, and you have it listed as a tossup? New Hampshire isn't even listed.

I understand that Romney's campaign is trying very hard to project that it's momentum from the first debate is still rolling but that's simply not the case. Although I have very much enjoyed the war on quants over the last few days since they don't conform to Fox's favored narrative.
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I thought the reference to state 52 and state 57 would have made it obvious I was joking.

That said, here's some serious info about WI. And since I used the quote function, it's a real quote.

President Obama and Mitt Romney are now tied in the critical battleground state of Wisconsin. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Wisconsin Voters shows the president and his Republican challenger each earning 49% support. One percent (1%) likes another candidate, and two percent (2%) are undecided.

Ninety-six percent (96%) of Badger State voters say they are sure to vote in this election. Romney leads 51% to 47% among these voters.

Among the 90% who say they’ve already made up their minds whom they will vote for, it’s Romney 51%, Obama 48%.
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https://www.rasmussenreports.com/pu...n/wisconsin/election_2012_wisconsin_president
 
Well if the left leaning Rasmussen reports it then it must be true....
 
One Brow said:
Obama has a lead in electoral votes, 201 to 191.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html

On their toss-ups, I hear Obama has basically conceded North Carolina, while Romney has basically conceded Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. That would make it 247-206.
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If you truly believe that Romney has given up on Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania then you are being silly. He is very competitive in all 3 states and will need to pick one or two off if he is to have a chance at the Presidency if he doesn't win Ohio. I think Florida is Romney's at this point along with North Carolina and Virginia. I think he wins those. Colodrado will be close but I think he ends up taking it as well.

Anyway, it should be interesting with the storm hitting the east coast. The likely GOP voters have the lead as far as enthusiasm goes. Should be interesting to see what happens. As for Wisconsin, I can see Romney actually winning that state. Walker won his recall and numerous recalls have turned out similar. Add in Wisconsin native Paul Ryan on the bottom of the ticket and you can see why a state Obama carried by I believe 14 points in 2008 is now a dead heat.
 
trigg3r said:
If you truly believe that Romney has given up on Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania then you are being silly.
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There is almost no way Romney wins PA. Every 4 years the R's think they have a chance there because there are huge pockets of right leaning counties in the middle of the state. The problem is no one lives there. Every election PA gets swallowed up by their two major left leaning cities - Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. This year will be no different.
 
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