Opponent 3 pt shooting

Jazz opponents from 3 in our last 20 games:

19/41 (46.3%) vs Wolves
20/39 (51.3%) vs Hawks
20/49 (40.8%) vs Celtics
19/32 (59.4%) @ Nuggets
17/39 (43.6%) vs Bulls
16/38 (42.1%) vs Wizards
13/34 (38.2%) @ Heat
10/30 (33.3%) @ Magic
12/32 (37.5%) @ Hawks
13/31 (41.9%) vs Spurs
20/42 (47.6%) vs Hornets
20/42 (47.6%) vs Warriors
14/31 (45.2%) vs Lakers
20/44 (45.5%) vs Warriors
14/29 (48.3%) @ Suns
19/37 (51.4%) vs Thunder
15/41 (36.6%) vs Bucks
14/32 (43.8%) vs Sixers
13/34 (38.2%) @ Knicks
21/45 (46.7%) @ Nets

Total: 329/742 (44.3%)
Per Game: 16.5/37.1 (1.33 points per possession)
League Average: 12.8/35.0 (36.6%) (1.09 points per possession)

Some notes:

We are allowing 7.7% above the league average from 3, on higher volume
Only one time in the last 20 games did a team shoot below the league average on 3pt% against us
In only 5 of the last 20 games did a team shoot below 40% from 3 against us
The best three point shooting team in the league does not average 40% from 3 (OKC - 39.4%).
During this stretch, the Jazz have a DRTG of 124.0 - good for dead last in the league by a mile. The next worse defense is the Raptors at 118.6.
The gap between the Jazz and the Raptors defense is greater than the gap between the Raptors defense and the 13th best defense.

I think this is the result of having minutes going to a combination of rookies and very bad defenders, but I am concerned about building defensive habits going forward. Especially since, ignoring the rookies, the three biggest culprits are probably playing Collins heavy minutes at the 5, and playing Clarkson and Sexton heavy minutes - period. All of them are under contract for the next two seasons after this one.

Bad defense or not, its heavily based on luck.

I would have to see a larger breakdown for stronger takes. Are the Jazz giving up an inordinate amount of corner 3s? Is the 3pt defense stronger or weaker based on coverage (zone/drop/switch)?

Saint Cy of JFC said:

Bad defense or not, its heavily based on luck.

I would have to see a larger breakdown for stronger takes. Are the Jazz giving up an inordinate amount of corner 3s? Is the 3pt defense stronger or weaker based on coverage (zone/drop/switch)?

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If teams shoot above league average from 3 against you in 19 of 20 games, it's almost certainly not heavily luck-based.

Flipping a coin 20 times and landing on heads 19 of 20 is like a 0.002% (1 in 50,000) chance.

MT Steve said:

If teams shoot above league average from 3 against you in 19 of 20 games, it's almost certainly not heavily luck-based.

Flipping a coin 20 times and landing on heads 19 of 20 is like a 0.002% (1 in 50,000) chance.

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It can definitely be based on luck in a 20 game sample size. Not saying it's good defense, but it's probably not as bad as the numbers.

And no, allowing that % from 3 in 20 games is not equivalent to 19 heads and 1 tails

Saint Cy of JFC said:

It can definitely be based on luck in a 20 game sample size. Not saying it's good defense, but it's probably not as bad as the numbers.

And no, allowing that % from 3 in 20 games is not equivalent to 19 heads and 1 tails

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It is if it's just luck-based (which it obviously is not).

Saint Cy of JFC said:

It can definitely be based on luck in a 20 game sample size. Not saying it's good defense, but it's probably not as bad as the numbers.

And no, allowing that % from 3 in 20 games is not equivalent to 19 heads and 1 tails

Click to expand...

The league average is also composed both by the attempts of the most putrid defenses, like ours, and the best ones. It's not as much luck when If anything we're the ones pushing the axis.

Yes. Let's enjoy the tank. This is how it looks like

rjfan said:

The league average is also composed both by the attempts of the most putrid defenses, like ours, and the best ones. It's not as much luck when If anything we're the ones pushing the axis.

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Here are some tracking defense 3pt stats:
Collins man shoots 5.2% better than his opponent.

Lauri+3.2%.

Sexton +1.6%.

Keyonte's +5.5%.

Clarkson +2.9%

Kessler +1.3%

Dunn +1.0%

THT +5.8%

Sensabaugh -0.6 But smaller sample size

Hendricks at +9.6, but smaller sample size.

I will say the better teams exploit Hardy's zone and get a lot of wide open 3s, so coaching philosophy definitely comes into play, but we have a few guys that have seen a lot of minutes that don't close out well on 3 pt shooters.

Keyonte needs to learn to fight over screens better. John Collins has a horrible close out on 3s. Just raises his hands and semi jogs to his defender, no "real" challenge.

It feels like the Jazz give up a lot of corner 3s too.

And for the season, the Jazz are dead last in 3pt defense.

rjfan said:

The league average is also composed both by the attempts of the most putrid defenses, like ours, and the best ones. It's not as much luck when If anything we're the ones pushing the axis.

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I would have to see better breakdowns of shot quality to know. The data presented by OP is too shallow to draw any conclusions

Saint Cy of JFC said:

I would have to see better breakdowns of shot quality to know. The data presented by OP is too shallow to draw any conclusions

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It wasn't meant to be a deep dive. But if 3 pt variance against us was just luck of the draw, as you concluded in the 2nd post of this thread, you wouldn't be seeing 19 out of 20 above average 3 pt performances (most of them well above league average), unless you think the Jazz are going through a 1 in 50,000 type of bad luck stretch.

These shallow stats combined to eye test is more than enough. But good luck with the debate, saint has made up his mind

Pretty crazy. I expect it to continue

Sent from my CPH2451 using Tapatalk

One thing that puzzles is that on transition defense we are still super slow in communicating and picking up free runners. Its "all eyes on the ball" mentality, where opponent can go 2 against 3 and run the other guy to the corner and all our guys are almost guaranteed to just focus on the ball carrier.

An example from last game:
How on earth does this transition play lead to a wide open 3? We have all 5 guys under the ball and 3 against 1 in our side of the court. Yet Juzang just keeps pointing at Conley instead of picking him up and Sexton doesnt pick up anyone until its too late.



Conley missed the shot but its a shot he never should have had.

I went to deep dive a bit and its definitely not entirely clear by the numbers why those percentages are that high.

In that same stretch of 20, we have allowed the 8th fewest corner 3's to our opponents. We have seen the most above the break 3 attempts out of any team at 29.4 with a 44.6% success rate which is absurdly high.



We rank 9th in giving up wide open 3s, so there are 8 teams that give up more:



We rank 14th in giving up open 3's, and there are 4 teams (Suns, Hornets, Raptors and Bulls) that give up more 3s in both categories ("open" and "wide open").

I dont think it is luck though.... I think one key part of it is the fact that opponents feel pretty comfortable playing against us. Neither our offense or our defense puts a ton of pressure on the opponents. We are definitely not a good 3 point defending team, but if that kind of stat was mostly a result of bad defense, the other metrics would also light up like a christmas tree.

HermanG said:

I went to deep dive a bit and its definitely not entirely clear by the numbers why those percentages are that high.

In that same stretch of 20, we have allowed the 8th fewest corner 3's to our opponents. We have seen the most above the break 3 attempts out of any team at 29.4 with a 44.6% success rate which is absurdly high.

View attachment 16148

We rank 9th in giving up wide open 3s, so there are 8 teams that give up more:

View attachment 16149

We rank 14th in giving up open 3's, and there are 4 teams (Suns, Hornets, Raptors and Bulls) that give up more 3s in both categories ("open" and "wide open").

I dont think it is luck though.... I think one key part of it is the fact that opponents feel pretty comfortable playing against us. Neither our offense or our defense puts a ton of pressure on the opponents. We are definitely not a good 3 point defending team, but if that kind of stat was mostly a result of bad defense, the other metrics would also light up like a christmas tree.

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Yeah, definitely we make it too easy. Remember, when at one point it seemed someone threw season or career highs on us every second game or more? The lack of two way guards and the lack of good, defending wings makes it way easy for the hot hand if opponent's. That will naturally affect a lot for the 3pt success rate. Kris Dunn is good at holding back his guys on most nights, but that's not nearly enough.

HermanG said:

I went to deep dive a bit and its definitely not entirely clear by the numbers why those percentages are that high.

In that same stretch of 20, we have allowed the 8th fewest corner 3's to our opponents. We have seen the most above the break 3 attempts out of any team at 29.4 with a 44.6% success rate which is absurdly high.

View attachment 16148

We rank 9th in giving up wide open 3s, so there are 8 teams that give up more:

View attachment 16149

We rank 14th in giving up open 3's, and there are 4 teams (Suns, Hornets, Raptors and Bulls) that give up more 3s in both categories ("open" and "wide open").

I dont think it is luck though.... I think one key part of it is the fact that opponents feel pretty comfortable playing against us. Neither our offense or our defense puts a ton of pressure on the opponents. We are definitely not a good 3 point defending team, but if that kind of stat was mostly a result of bad defense, the other metrics would also light up like a christmas tree.

Click to expand...

It's luck.

Doesnt mean the defense is good or even passable, but it's not the worst 3pt defense in the NBA. Teams are shooting better than expected with the quality of shots the Jazz have given up.

Step-Back Lauri said:

Remember, when at one point it seemed someone threw season or career highs on us every second game or more?

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Sure, but you only remember when this happens against the Jazz. Do you have any frame of reference for how much it happens against everyone else?

MT Steve said:

It wasn't meant to be a deep dive. But if 3 pt variance against us was just luck of the draw, as you concluded in the 2nd post of this thread, you wouldn't be seeing 19 out of 20 above average 3 pt performances (most of them well above league average), unless you think the Jazz are going through a 1 in 50,000 type of bad luck stretch.

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Im not sure why you are being so argumentative with this.

I'm not saying it's luck as in the Jazz should have a great 3pt defense. They can be playing bad defense and be experiencing bad luck. Their defense is not as bad as the % are. You have to be stupid to think so.

HermanG said:

I went to deep dive a bit and its definitely not entirely clear by the numbers why those percentages are that high.

In that same stretch of 20, we have allowed the 8th fewest corner 3's to our opponents. We have seen the most above the break 3 attempts out of any team at 29.4 with a 44.6% success rate which is absurdly high.

View attachment 16148

We rank 9th in giving up wide open 3s, so there are 8 teams that give up more:

View attachment 16149

We rank 14th in giving up open 3's, and there are 4 teams (Suns, Hornets, Raptors and Bulls) that give up more 3s in both categories ("open" and "wide open").

I dont think it is luck though.... I think one key part of it is the fact that opponents feel pretty comfortable playing against us. Neither our offense or our defense puts a ton of pressure on the opponents. We are definitely not a good 3 point defending team, but if that kind of stat was mostly a result of bad defense, the other metrics would also light up like a christmas tree.

Click to expand...

The above the break 3% is a huge huge huge outlier.

Saint Cy of JFC said:

Im not sure why you are being so argumentative with this.

I'm not saying it's luck as in the Jazz should have a great 3pt defense. They can be playing bad defense and be experiencing bad luck. Their defense is not as bad as the % are. You have to be stupid to think so.

Click to expand...

Sure, and I'm not going to argue if you want to chop a handful of % points off the numbers due to the luck factor. The numbers are so high that you can definitely do that and have them still look bad.

Bad luck might be causing them to be astronomically bad instead of merely terrible, but I also think you'd have to be stupid to think that terrible defense isn't also a major contributing factor. Which brings us back to full circle and my concern with our defense going forward with Clarkson/Collins/Sexton all under contract for the next two seasons (Collins is less of a concern if we stop playing him heavy minutes at the 5).