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Opponent 3 pt shooting

MTS

MTS

Well-Known Member
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Jazz opponents from 3 in our last 20 games:

19/41 (46.3%) vs Wolves
20/39 (51.3%) vs Hawks
20/49 (40.8%) vs Celtics
19/32 (59.4%) @ Nuggets
17/39 (43.6%) vs Bulls
16/38 (42.1%) vs Wizards
13/34 (38.2%) @ Heat
10/30 (33.3%) @ Magic
12/32 (37.5%) @ Hawks
13/31 (41.9%) vs Spurs
20/42 (47.6%) vs Hornets
20/42 (47.6%) vs Warriors
14/31 (45.2%) vs Lakers
20/44 (45.5%) vs Warriors
14/29 (48.3%) @ Suns
19/37 (51.4%) vs Thunder
15/41 (36.6%) vs Bucks
14/32 (43.8%) vs Sixers
13/34 (38.2%) @ Knicks
21/45 (46.7%) @ Nets

Total: 329/742 (44.3%)
Per Game: 16.5/37.1 (1.33 points per possession)
League Average: 12.8/35.0 (36.6%) (1.09 points per possession)

Some notes:

We are allowing 7.7% above the league average from 3, on higher volume
Only one time in the last 20 games did a team shoot below the league average on 3pt% against us
In only 5 of the last 20 games did a team shoot below 40% from 3 against us
The best three point shooting team in the league does not average 40% from 3 (OKC - 39.4%).
During this stretch, the Jazz have a DRTG of 124.0 - good for dead last in the league by a mile. The next worse defense is the Raptors at 118.6.
The gap between the Jazz and the Raptors defense is greater than the gap between the Raptors defense and the 13th best defense.

I think this is the result of having minutes going to a combination of rookies and very bad defenders, but I am concerned about building defensive habits going forward. Especially since, ignoring the rookies, the three biggest culprits are probably playing Collins heavy minutes at the 5, and playing Clarkson and Sexton heavy minutes - period. All of them are under contract for the next two seasons after this one.
 
Bad defense or not, its heavily based on luck.

I would have to see a larger breakdown for stronger takes. Are the Jazz giving up an inordinate amount of corner 3s? Is the 3pt defense stronger or weaker based on coverage (zone/drop/switch)?
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
Bad defense or not, its heavily based on luck.

I would have to see a larger breakdown for stronger takes. Are the Jazz giving up an inordinate amount of corner 3s? Is the 3pt defense stronger or weaker based on coverage (zone/drop/switch)?
Click to expand...
If teams shoot above league average from 3 against you in 19 of 20 games, it's almost certainly not heavily luck-based.

Flipping a coin 20 times and landing on heads 19 of 20 is like a 0.002% (1 in 50,000) chance.
 
MT Steve said:
If teams shoot above league average from 3 against you in 19 of 20 games, it's almost certainly not heavily luck-based.

Flipping a coin 20 times and landing on heads 19 of 20 is like a 0.002% (1 in 50,000) chance.
Click to expand...
It can definitely be based on luck in a 20 game sample size. Not saying it's good defense, but it's probably not as bad as the numbers.

And no, allowing that % from 3 in 20 games is not equivalent to 19 heads and 1 tails
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
It can definitely be based on luck in a 20 game sample size. Not saying it's good defense, but it's probably not as bad as the numbers.

And no, allowing that % from 3 in 20 games is not equivalent to 19 heads and 1 tails
Click to expand...
The league average is also composed both by the attempts of the most putrid defenses, like ours, and the best ones. It's not as much luck when If anything we're the ones pushing the axis.
 
rjfan said:
The league average is also composed both by the attempts of the most putrid defenses, like ours, and the best ones. It's not as much luck when If anything we're the ones pushing the axis.
Click to expand...
Here are some tracking defense 3pt stats:
Collins man shoots 5.2% better than his opponent.

Lauri+3.2%.

Sexton +1.6%.

Keyonte's +5.5%.

Clarkson +2.9%

Kessler +1.3%

Dunn +1.0%

THT +5.8%

Sensabaugh -0.6 But smaller sample size

Hendricks at +9.6, but smaller sample size.

I will say the better teams exploit Hardy's zone and get a lot of wide open 3s, so coaching philosophy definitely comes into play, but we have a few guys that have seen a lot of minutes that don't close out well on 3 pt shooters.

Keyonte needs to learn to fight over screens better. John Collins has a horrible close out on 3s. Just raises his hands and semi jogs to his defender, no "real" challenge.

It feels like the Jazz give up a lot of corner 3s too.

And for the season, the Jazz are dead last in 3pt defense.
 

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rjfan said:
The league average is also composed both by the attempts of the most putrid defenses, like ours, and the best ones. It's not as much luck when If anything we're the ones pushing the axis.
Click to expand...
I would have to see better breakdowns of shot quality to know. The data presented by OP is too shallow to draw any conclusions
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
I would have to see better breakdowns of shot quality to know. The data presented by OP is too shallow to draw any conclusions
Click to expand...
It wasn't meant to be a deep dive. But if 3 pt variance against us was just luck of the draw, as you concluded in the 2nd post of this thread, you wouldn't be seeing 19 out of 20 above average 3 pt performances (most of them well above league average), unless you think the Jazz are going through a 1 in 50,000 type of bad luck stretch.
 
Pretty crazy. I expect it to continue

Sent from my CPH2451 using Tapatalk
 
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