No, I'm not giving you theories, I'm giving you the actual facts.
The discussion never was were the Jazz trying to tank. Because that's obvious and there's nothing to discuss.
You continue to claim to holding Lauri out of close games and playing him in big underdog games produces more losses. Against a market of billions of dollars. Either you have your own reality or you've just decided you're gonna argue me, whatever the issue, and look bad doing it.
JC playing or not does nothing for the Jazz odds. (Which might not be a good sign for front office competence considering his salary.)
And both times Lauri was held out, at this point he was listed as OUT (maintenance) so him being listed as questionable (as he was yesterday) is a sign that he's playing - not that he's not.
Yes. And that affects the base odds, but whether Lauri plays or not moves the money line by the exact same amount whether the Jazz are playing the Mavs or the Spurs.
(And the point spread moves differently, because games have pretty much a normal distribution around the average margin of victory. So a 7 % change in win probability moves the spread much less in a tight game than one where the spread starts at 10+.)