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2024 NBA Draft Mega Thread

Elizah Huge said:
No thanks to Walter at 8
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Who you taking in this scenario at 8?

1. Sarr
2. Risacher
3. Sheppard
4. Topic
5. Dillingham
6. Castle
7. Clingan

Think I go between Holland and Knecht depending on offense or defense priority. Admittedly, looking at it like this, it certainly does look like a really bad draft.
 
So Tyler Smith is the same age, played on the same team, and was much better than Matas this year. Does that mean anything?
 
Elizah Huge said:
From Wasserman’s last mock:

The analytics say Reed Sheppard’s impact stacks up with top-five pick freshmen—only Zion Williamson, Anthony Davis, Michael Beasley, Kevin Love, Chet Holmgren, Karl-Anthony Towns and Evan Mobley recorded higher box plus-minuses for a season.
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Here's a longer post about BPM and Sheppard from The Moose at RealGM

So Reed is currently sitting at 11.5 BPM, outstanding production for a freshman, currently in tied 8th position since 2008 behind Zion, AD, Beasley, Chet, KAT and Mobley. He's now tied with Harden for 8th, so, currently in a tie for best freshman guard BPM since 2008.

We have pretty solid history of freshman BPM being a useful projection tool for draft prospects.

In the last 10 years (since 2014), there has been 47 freshman 6'2+ who have registered an 8+BPM (40%+ mins played). Out of those 46, 39 (84.7%) are currently on nba rosters, only Josh Jackson, Gary Clark, Jontay Porter, Stanley Johnson, Justice Winslow, Vernon Carey Jr, Jahlil Okafor are not.

Conversely, in that same 10 year span, we have 2133 (6'2+, 40+% mins played) players that registered sub 3 BPM as freshman, 30 of which are currently playing in the NBA, so 1.4% of those players.

Now, if we continue to look at the last 10 years, 24 freshman have been drafted in the first round with an 8 BPM and 10%+ ast rate. A sub 10% ast rate is indicative of largely off ball players, typically wing shooters or rim running bigs.

So let's look at the list of freshman who had outstanding production in on ball and offensive creation roles.

1. Zion
2. Chet
3. Kat
4. Mobley
5. Lonzo
6. Brandon Miller
7. Dlo
8. Embiid
9. WCJ
10. Trae
11. Jabari Smith
12. Ayton
13. Simmons
14. Zhaire Smith
15. Winslow
16. Jamal Murray
17. Tyus Jones
18. Fultz
19. Josh Jackson
20. Suggs
21. Stanley Johnson
22. Booker
23. SGA
24. Herro

Lets break down this list into tiers

MVP Candidates/Superstars
Embiid
SGA
Booker

Allstars/Past Allstars
KAT
Simmons
DLO
Trae

Borderline all stars / future all stars
Zion Williamson
Jamal Murray
Chet Holmgren
Evan Mobley

Starters/ impact players
Herro
Suggs
Ayton
WCJ
Lonzo
Tyus Jones

TBD
Miller
Jabari

Busts
Zhaire Smith
Stanley Johnson
Justice Winslow
Josh Jackson

Weird injury
Fultz

So, at least from my own assessment, we have :

11/22 (excluding Miller and Jabari as its too early to say) = between superstar and borderline all star
6/22 = starters/impact players
4/21 = busts
1/21 = freak injury

Essentially, 17/22 (77%) are somewhere on the spectrum of superstar to starters/impact players.

All four of the busts failed primarily because they can’t shoot, all four are 31% or below career 3pt shooters and below 75% career ft shooters as wings, and then Fultz is Fultz.

I think we can safely assume Reed won't bust due to shooting ineptitude, and with that in mind we have 10 years worth of data to suggest it''s very likely, given his freshman production, that Reed becomes an impactful nba player at the least.

As far as his draft range, the average pick for this list of 24 players is 5.2.
I think its certainly justifiable to have Reed in the top 5 based just on recent history
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Saint Cy of JFC said:
89th percentile in C&S. 77 3's on the season at 42%

40th percentile on off the dribble jumpers. 32% on 2's and 28 on 3's.


61st percentile at the rim. 60% FG

70th percentile in transition.

56th percentile off screens

67th percentile in PNR

94th percentile in spot up.

44th percentile in isolation. (8% of offense)

93rd percentile in post-up (6% of offense)

88th percentile as a cutter (6% of offense)

Like most right handers he's better at shooting going to his left and better at getting to the rim going to his right.
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Many thanks. The off the dribble jumper looks smooth in the highlights but still looks like it has a way to go. Which is why these numbers are valuable... he makes every shot in the mixtape lol. Maybe not #2 on the big board but still top 5.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
Many thanks. The off the dribble jumper looks smooth in the highlights but still looks like it has a way to go. Which is why these numbers are valuable... he makes every shot in the mixtape lol. Maybe not #2 on the big board but still top 5.
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I think the synergy numbers are useful....Not exactly sure how to use the percentiles though. It's just based on efficiency with no volume considered. That's definitely worth something, but probably similar to looking at raw 3FG% to see who the best shooters are in the NBA. If you looked at the NBA percentiles, everyone who is you'd expect is good is good, but still maybe not exactly what you would have expected.
 
KqWIN said:
So Tyler Smith is the same age, played on the same team, and was much better than Matas this year. Does that mean anything?
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I think starting the season with an injury is not ideal. I just think they are different players and Matas has a higher upside but his role is more difficult so it may not come together.
 
KqWIN said:
I think the synergy numbers are useful....Not exactly sure how to use the percentiles though. It's just based on efficiency with no volume considered. That's definitely worth something, but probably similar to looking at raw 3FG% to see who the best shooters are in the NBA. If you looked at the NBA percentiles, everyone who is you'd expect is good is good, but still maybe not exactly what you would have expected.
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I was specifically interested in the pullup and rim finishing. He looks like he is great at the around the rim stuff because he looks like a quick one foot leaper who can finish with either hand. I am not sure how 60th percentile or whatever translates for a wing. I will say that is good?

The pullup I was interested as he has a good cadence on the dribble pullup where its a slight hesitation but I can't tell if he's going to pullup or drive. Between that and the other shooting stuff that's the making of a 20 ppg guy who spreads the floor. The pullup jumper numbers being low (volume would matter a bit) is slightly concerning for where I wanted to go with Knecht but I think it obviously could get much better.

And without the full access its hard to compare but still fun in a nerdy way.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
I think starting the season with an injury is not ideal. I just think they are different players and Matas has a higher upside but his role is more difficult so it may not come together.
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I hear ya....I definitely think Matas looks more skilled/fluid with the ball, but in the same way that we kinda overlooked Leonard Miller (I guess it's still tbd on that), I wonder if we should respect that level of production. GLeague ignite was also getting stomped all year, so I would expect all their numbers to be pretty bad.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
I was specifically interested in the pullup and rim finishing. He looks like he is great at the around the rim stuff because he looks like a quick one foot leaper who can finish with either hand. I am not sure how 60th percentile or whatever translates for a wing. I will say that is good?

The pullup I was interested as he has a good cadence on the dribble pullup where its a slight hesitation but I can't tell if he's going to pullup or drive. Between that and the other shooting stuff that's the making of a 20 ppg guy who spreads the floor. The pullup jumper numbers being low (volume would matter a bit) is slightly concerning for where I wanted to go with Knecht but I think it obviously could get much better.

And without the full access its hard to compare but still fun in a nerdy way.
Click to expand...

The percentile stuff....it's still a little iffy more me and I also think people have used synergy to chop up shooting samples to a very small sample that makes a player look much better/worse. I think seeing the distribution of playtypes/volume is really useful though. It's good to have all the information.
 
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