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2024 NBA Draft Mega Thread

bigmike said:
Call me an optimist but I like to look at defensive "potential" vs. productivity in projecting D ability, particularly for high-volume scorers in college who spend so much energy on that side of the floor.

My expectation is that every rookie, save 5-6 guys every draft, will come into the NBA and generally suck defensively. So long as they have the physical tools to get there and understand if they don't guard they won't play I'm not too worried. He's long, rangy, athletic enough and plays really hard. I'm not too worried.

Guys like Reed Sheppard scare me more. I know what the defensive metrics say but his size, physique, and length are spooky guarding top end NBA guards.
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Sheppard definitely has inflated metrics compared to how impactful he will actually be
 
bigmike said:
Call me an optimist but I like to look at defensive "potential" vs. productivity in projecting D ability, particularly for high-volume scorers in college who spend so much energy on that side of the floor.

My expectation is that every rookie, save 5-6 guys every draft, will come into the NBA and generally suck defensively. So long as they have the physical tools to get there and understand if they don't guard they won't play I'm not too worried. He's long, rangy, athletic enough and plays really hard. I'm not too worried.

Guys like Reed Sheppard scare me more. I know what the defensive metrics say but his size, physique, and length are spooky guarding top end NBA guards.
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I would rather draft a guy that can defend and hope he improves his offense than a guy that can shoot and hope he learns to defend. If you can't defend you have to be amazing offensively to make up for it and have positive impact on and NBA court. If you are a high level defender you only need to be average offensively to make a positive impact.
 
KqWIN said:
Blind comparisons are kinda dumb, but I thought this one was interesting.

One of these players is 3.5 years older than the other.

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I'll bite... make me feel dumb. One is Dalton... who da other?
 
SoberasHotRod said:
I would rather draft a guy that can defend and hope he improves his offense than a guy that can shoot and hope he learns to defend. If you can't defend you have to be amazing offensively to make up for it and have positive impact on and NBA court. If you are a high level defender you only need to be average offensively to make a positive impact.
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Depends on what level of defending or offense we're talking about, but yeah, check out video clips of young Kawhi, still one of my favorite players.
 
i did watch Knecht specifically to see his defense. He is not great but puts in effort, which is very important. He has the athleticism to be a decent defender if he learns more things to do. Effort is huge on defense and then there are defensive fundamentals. Honestly, if he comes in with the attitude he has shown at Tennesse I think he could be a very good player all around. He is my pick at 8 or later. If the Jazz win the lottery that would change.

As for the talk on Keyonte, I agree you don't pass up a BPA because he is on the roster but I think he has a lot of potential. Teams are usually 8 to 9 deep. These players can get a lot of minutes so even if the Jazz drafted a shorter guard there could be time for them.

Sexton - I think Sexton would be perfect in the role that JC has played and that is a flame thrower off the bench. Jazz seemed to try him at this spot and he did well. Trade JC for whatever we can get and let Sexton bring energy off the bench and bring the scoring. That is his perfect role.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
Got it. Interesting. I think they get there in different ways but yeah... i see that.
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Yeah, I’d agree that Knecht plays in a way that feels more believable + has a few other reasons why he might be more likely to succeed….but I just thought it was interesting. Especially because the other guy is so much younger.
 
It's kind of hard to judge college stars on D when they have to stay out of foul trouble.

Knecht definitely seems not good on D, but like he should be able to be decent if he works on it
 
SoberasHotRod said:
I would rather draft a guy that can defend and hope he improves his offense than a guy that can shoot and hope he learns to defend. If you can't defend you have to be amazing offensively to make up for it and have positive impact on and NBA court. If you are a high level defender you only need to be average offensively to make a positive impact.
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That's just generally not a good bet. You draft for offense and hope they can figure of defense based on their tools or IQ.
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
That's just generally not a good bet. You draft for offense and hope they can figure of defense based on their tools or IQ.
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Yeah, I would probably make a horrible GM, lol, I would still be playing Gobert and Favors next to each other. I do think that a good defender requires IQ, athleticism, effort, etc, that are good indications of being able to play in the league.

To be clear I value guys that can play on both ends. I just don't really enjoy watching guys who only try on offense.
 
From Wasserman’s last mock:

The analytics say Reed Sheppard’s impact stacks up with top-five pick freshmen—only Zion Williamson, Anthony Davis, Michael Beasley, Kevin Love, Chet Holmgren, Karl-Anthony Towns and Evan Mobley recorded higher box plus-minuses for a season.
 
Elizah Huge said:
From Wasserman’s last mock:

The analytics say Reed Sheppard’s impact stacks up with top-five pick freshmen—only Zion Williamson, Anthony Davis, Michael Beasley, Kevin Love, Chet Holmgren, Karl-Anthony Towns and Evan Mobley recorded higher box plus-minuses for a season.
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Too bad he isnt 6'8 or taller like everyone else in that group
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
@Saint Cy of JFC I'd be curious to see what a synergy deep dive on Knecht's shooting and scoring look like. Seems like he has a million ways to get it and when I watch highlights I keep thinking that literally all the stuff he does on offense translates or will be enhanced by a spaced nba floor.

Looks bigger and more athletic than Bogdon (maybe pre-injuries). If that is what he is does that equate to an efficient 20-25 ppg at its peak? Lots of gravity and the on ball stuff looks really intriguing too. The knock is that he is old and is a bad defender... I get that but I think he is the winner of the "this guy is obviously good at basketball and it will translate well and you will feel dumb for not having him higher" award.
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89th percentile in C&S. 77 3's on the season at 42%

40th percentile on off the dribble jumpers. 32% on 2's and 28 on 3's.


61st percentile at the rim. 60% FG

70th percentile in transition.

56th percentile off screens

67th percentile in PNR

94th percentile in spot up.

44th percentile in isolation. (8% of offense)

93rd percentile in post-up (6% of offense)

88th percentile as a cutter (6% of offense)

Like most right handers he's better at shooting going to his left and better at getting to the rim going to his right.
 
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