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2024 NBA Draft Mega Thread

On average, the small guards who have stuck have an extra inch and a half of wingspan and an extra 6.7 pounds of body weight. That may not seem like a lot, but the NBA is a game of inches and ounces. On a basketball court, it’s a big difference. The fact that none of the successful small guards had a sub-6’4” wingspan stuck out like a sore thumb, especially given that it was the average mark for the whiff group. Obviously, there are exceptions to these findings. Carsen Edwards, Justin Wright-Foreman, and Cassius Winston had plenty of length and bulk, but they didn’t pan out. Conversely, Ja Morant and Darius Garland entered the association as some of the lightest players in the league.

What Morant and Garland did have, though, were outlier talents. Morant was an exceptional vertical athlete with a high level of feel. Garland has out-of-this-world touch and range as a scorer. Going back further, Trae Young overcame the skinniness hurdle by exhibiting phenomenal shooting ability and wonderful timing as a passer. Even longer ago, Chris Paul got over the hump with ease thanks to his playmaking wizardry, dogged defense, and off-the-catch shooting. There have always been small guards who were skinny that broke through, and typically, it’s been because they had something that made them truly special. If a guard is short and thin, it’s a “stay away” for me unless there’s a big, meaningful hook skill-wise.
 
Whether the rules make it easier/harder to be physical, I'm still not sure it favors one player/body type than another. And that's just a general statement for things that become "more difficult" with rule changes. People say this about defense too. Defense is more difficult to play nowadays, does that make defenders less valuable? I think not. The added physicality will make it harder for the guys who are the best off the dribble, but also the guys who are not the best. Someone like Dame's efficiency may drop, but it could drop someone like Jrue completely out of the picture.
I worry as much about strength as size with Dilly. like how they allowed Dort to commit assault on BI and it took him out of the series. Its not something I would factor in heavily but if they cycle back to hands off I think he's a lot tougher to handle.

I think we need to remember we have the 8th pick and stop getting too far ahead of of ourselves. On that same note, I love me some Josh Hart but I still want to start with Brunson. Even if you don't believe in small guys in the playoffs, you still want the best player this early in the process. You are not beholden to whoever you draft forever.
yup
 
I think we need to remember we have the 8th pick and stop getting too far ahead of of ourselves. On that same note, I love me some Josh Hart but I still want to start with Brunson. Even if you don't believe in small guys in the playoffs, you still want the best player this early in the process. You are not beholden to whoever you draft forever.
Yall please let me know when it becomes as easy to identify BPA in the draft as it is comparing established NBA players. Would really help me ace my big boards every year.
 
For me the eye test on nba skills, size and athletic ability usually works. But there are always surprises.
 
Yall please let me know when it becomes as easy to identify BPA in the draft as it is comparing established NBA players. Would really help me ace my big boards every year.

Since you can't actually determine who is BPA, I guess we should just do no evaluation at all right? And of course, the guy who is the correct fit is a sure thing right?

You pick the guy who you think is the best.
 
I'm talking in shoes.

And all these guys are north of 180. (maybe not Zeke?)

Dillingham is not only short, he's also extremely light in the ***. I know he gained nearly 20 lbs from his OTE to UK year, but how much more can he get?

And I would still consider Kyrie a primary option. I dont think the primary/secondary/tertiary separators are 100% based on team context. Some teams run one primary, some run two.

But yeah, if every example of a 6'1(ish) lightweight player is a super-star, doesnt that also raise red flags? IF Dillingham isnt a star can he have a NBA role?
The other Isaiah Thomas was short too...

There have been short guards on championsip teams, but is the question about being superstars or being primary option on championship team? I kind of feel like almost by definition being a primary option on championship team means you are a superstar or at the very least close to it. I've gone through the championship teams in the last 30+ years and the championship teams without an MVP level talent are extremely rare(pretty much just Detroit 2004? if remember correctly).
 
The other Isaiah Thomas was short too...

There have been short guards on championsip teams, but is the question about being superstars or being primary option on championship team? I kind of feel like almost by definition being a primary option on championship team means you are a superstar or at the very least close to it. I've gone through the championship teams in the last 30+ years and the championship teams without an MVP level talent are extremely rare(pretty much just Detroit 2004? if remember correctly).
IT (the recent one) weighed 190 at 5'9, so he was relatively huge height to weight ratio wise. A reel beefcake.
 
The other Isaiah Thomas was short too...

There have been short guards on championsip teams, but is the question about being superstars or being primary option on championship team? I kind of feel like almost by definition being a primary option on championship team means you are a superstar or at the very least close to it. I've gone through the championship teams in the last 30+ years and the championship teams without an MVP level talent are extremely rare(pretty much just Detroit 2004? if remember correct

Definitely the spurs in 2014. No superstar but a bunch a really solid players that were extremely unselfish when moving the ball around the perimeter.
 
Definitely the spurs in 2014. No superstar but a bunch a really solid players that were extremely unselfish when moving the ball around the perimeter.
At that stage of their development as a team, yeah... but keep in mind they have like 3-4 HOFs on that team.
 
Iverson... ? CP3? Conley... Lowry... Kemba?
Lowry was pushing 200 lbs.

CP3 is an outlier genius. Iverson was outlier for speed/scoring and they are both great examples that even small players with peak skills come up short.

Walker got out of the first round once in his career and would be a player I would never want on my team personally.

Conley has just short of a +7'' wingspan. CP3 + 4'' wingspan. Kemba + 4'' wingspan. Iverson +4'' wingspan.
 
Lowry was pushing 200 lbs.

CP3 is an outlier genius. Iverson was outlier for speed/scoring and they are both great examples that even small players with peak skills come up short.

Walker got out of the first round once in his career and would be a player I would never want on my team personally.

Conley has just short of a +7'' wingspan. CP3 + 4'' wingspan. Kemba + 4'' wingspan. Iverson +4'' wingspan.
Should we wait and see how he measures? Is he going to be at the combine?
 
Should we wait and see how he measures? Is he going to be at the combine?
Yes, if he has a +4 wingspan it would give him a slight bump.

And I do think Dilingham has some outlier talents, but he also has some concerning markers. He's not a tough defender and he isn't good at drawing fouls. You kind of have to have one or the other, if not both, to be a big time small guard.
 
There are other options at 8, I hope Dilly goes before our pick. I know hes probably quicker and maybe a little better in some ways but he gives me trey burke vibes. Burke was a stud in college. This board gets enamored with tiny guys. I would rather swing for a knecht or cody williams and see how they do.
 

So the methodology on this article is pretty janky (unavoidable), but I still found it to be an interesting read. If anyone has a lot of time, I would recommend a read but would also recommend trying to find your own conclusions. I agree with some of his conclusions, others not so much.

The criteria for "whiff" is fairly strict and means players who did not register a single minute this season. To my count, there are only 6 first rounders that were whiffs since 2019 and that incudes KPJ and Kai Jones. The majority of whiffs are just late second round picks. Big surprise. I guess we can decide on our own how much it matters that a second round pick whiffed. When thinking about Shep and Dillingham.....do we really care about how Kyle Guy and Marcus Zegarowski.....maybe you do.

I was more interested in the "hit" rate than the "whiff" rate. Well. I was most interested in the Allstar+Hit rate. I believe that if you are an all star, that should also count as a "hit". With that in mind, the combine hit + all star rate was:

Under 6-4: 33.3%
6-4 / 6'6: 38.2%
6'7 / 6'9: 39.3%
Over 6'9: 26.3%

Under 6-4 had the highest all star rate FWIW.

I also found the timeline a little suspicious because it cut off right before some really good drafts for smaller guards. Out of curiosity, I went back just one more season and included 2018. Here is the hit+all star rate:

Under 6-4: 40.5%
6'4 / 6'6: 40.5.%
6'7 / 6'9: 36.8%
Over 6'9: 35.4%

I felt like the author was coming on a little too strong with his conclusions. Like if one more player met a different criteria (which was blurry to begin with) he would have had a whole different conclusion using the same logic. If he went back one more year and/or considered "hits" to be inclusive of the all stars, he also would have come to a different conclusion. And again, I think the inclusion of second round picks kind of mucks this all up. One year of late second rounders being tilted towards a certain group will throw it off.

Going back one year got me thinking....small guys are wayyyy over represented on the all star teams. They have the most all stars despite having the smallest pool of players. The all star rate for under 6'4 is 5/42. The all star rate for all players 6'4-6'9 is 7/232. Short kings represent about 12.5% of the entire pool of draftees but 35.7% of the all stars. This is without going back to 2017 and adding two more all stars with Fox and Mitchell. I didn't go through that entire draft, but one can assume this only goes more in favor of our glorious short kings. The are not many short kings drafted high up in the draft to begin with, so I don't want to get too ahead of myself in SSS theater.....but I feel like the all star rate is significant. Going back 10 years, 5 of 12 lottery picks that were under 6'4 became all stars.

If you're trying to get an all star in the lottery, short prospects are not a bad bet. If you're looking for any player drafted any spot that is a "hit"....I'm not sure the data is significant enough for any of the height groups to be considered favorable or unfavorable.
 
I dont want him on my team, but a Kemba Walker on a rookie contract would at least be a tradeable asset.

That's kind of the point of drafting BPA. If the only way a prospect can provide value to a franchise is in hypothetical NBA finals series, you might be onto something. But the NBA is much more fluid than that. You are not beholden to the players you draft forever, they can be moved. Chances are there will be a lot of moving parts in order to win a title.
 
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