2025-2026 Tank Race Prediction Contest and Current Results Thread

[HermanG]

I don't know which best buy parking lot to believe in most....but I'll just say this non-extension is not the only sign that the FO/Hardy isn't in love with Kessler. There's been a lot of little things over the years so this isn't a one time thing. On top of that, I think the Jazz were in a much better negotiating position before the season then they will be in RFA when there are several teams with space and who should be interested in Kessler. So even if they are 100% in on Kessler, I think they played it the wrong way.

The resolution I'm hoping for is that instead of signing an offer sheet with another team he allows for the Jazz to match the money in a more team structured way. He might just want out though.

Whether they played it right or wrong depends on the deal. Its not a forgone comclusion yet.

I know all about the signs... ive been here. Im just questionning how real they actually are.

Just changing my take out loud.

 

[Jaanipoeg]

Do people feel more likely to move up from 6th or drop down?

2 games up on Charlotte (and 4 on Dallas) and 2 games below Sacramento/Brooklyn (with the potential of New Orleans becoming competent)

 

[KqWIN]

Do people feel more likely to move up from 6th or drop down?

2 games up on Charlotte (and 4 on Dallas) and 2 games below Sacramento/Brooklyn (with the potential of New Orleans becoming competent)

I'd probably say down (to 7+). I think DAL or CHO has a somewhat realistic path to dropping below us depending on how grimey they get. I can really only see SAC winning more games than us from the teams above us, so 2>1.

 

[fishonjazz]

That’s fair enough, I don’t doubt that Austin is less pro-tank than Danny was. I just don’t think his response to that question is good evidence of it. If a front office is asked if they are tanking or not they kind of have to say no.

Not sure what the exact question was but if it was "are you going to tank or not" he could just say no and not talk about how there will be no shenanigans.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I have recently started to think we are reading the Kessler situation wrong.

McMahon said that we are 100% in on Walker and quoted his agent by name who claimed Walker deserves elite center money and we bet on him getting "starter center offers" in FA.

He didnt nail down the fact that we will counter anything but FO would never say that bc that would just drive offers up.

Staying as low as we did doesnt reveal how far we would go so any offers from others should be near fair market value.

Its still a gamble tho, but my new take is we definitely want to keep him.

I don't think that was the plan. I do think we are currently in on Walker and want to keep him. I def think we don't want him to walk for nothing. I do think they play some hardball this summer and it may or may not workout for us.

We will see what the cap space landscape looks like after the deadline but at a minimum Wiz, Lakers, and Atlanta will have interest and the ability to get to an amount of cap space we may not love. I think its more likely than not Walker sticks around though... even if we aren't his first choice. I think the money could be more than what he would have settled for last offseason but maybe we do something with the additional space so its still an overall win.

 

[fishonjazz]

Do people feel more likely to move up from 6th or drop down?

2 games up on Charlotte (and 4 on Dallas) and 2 games below Sacramento/Brooklyn (with the potential of New Orleans becoming competent)

All depends on Lauri and Nurkic playing or not

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Do people feel more likely to move up from 6th or drop down?

2 games up on Charlotte (and 4 on Dallas) and 2 games below Sacramento/Brooklyn (with the potential of New Orleans becoming competent)

I think its maybe slightly more possible that we move into the 5 spot. Sac/NOP are the teams to look at imo. I think Nets get more tanky.

As long as one of Miller or Lamelo stay healthy I think Charlotte is good. That's not a certain bet. Dallas may be too far in front and may be fine with 7th or 8th spot.

 

[Schrödinger's Gerbil]

I still don't understand why anyone took baby Ainge's response to the question of whether the team would tank, or manipulate minutes, at face value. Andy's question basically painted him into a corner - there's really no other answer he could have given. Remember, a few years ago Mark Cuban was fined over half a million dollars, not for the Mavs tanking, but for admitting that they were.

I get what you're saying. It makes strategic sense, from management's perspective, to dissemble in public statements. However, from the fans' perspective (particularly run-of-the-mill fans and not tanking savants like those here), they can legitimately see this as a bait and switch, enticing them to invest money, time, and emotion into what they think will be a legit attempt to field a competitive product only to be served up yet another season of deliberate, strategic losing. I don't blame them one bit if they get pissed. In fact, I wish more would, showing their displeasure via smaller crowds, lower ratings, and hearty boos during God-awful performances like Charlotte.

This goes to one of my many beefs against tanking – looking at it from the fans’ perspective, not ownership/FO perspective – it exploits the unique dynamics of sports fandom. When owners and front offices intentionally deliver an uncompetitive product while maintaining prices, they leverage the captive nature of their audience. Unlike other entertainment industries, fans develop deep emotional and generational attachments that prevent easy switching to competitors. NBA teams benefit from legal monopolies, public stadium financing, and extraordinary fan loyalty, yet face minimal accountability for deliberately providing inferior entertainment. This arguably creates a fundamental betrayal of the implied contract between teams and fans: organizations make good-faith efforts to compete and provide value-for-investment (financial and emotional) in exchange for loyal support.

The longer the intentional losing continues, the more it resembles a systematic breach of basic consumer trust. Fans continue paying premium prices while receiving a product that ownership has deliberately made inferior, essentially subsidizing a multi-year experiment with a highly uncertain return.

This goes to another of my annoyances about tanking: the almost complete lack of critical discourse around it, including its effectiveness, ethics, and associated reasoning fallacies. I really wish the NBA media landscape were open to a more robust discussion of these issues, or any discussion, for that matter. The collective and uncritical groupthink around tanking drives me crazy.

With that said, I would like to keep our pick next year, so three cheers for the tank, I suppose, though the cheers are offered through gritted teeth and with a healthy dose of self-loathing.

 

[fishonjazz]

I get what you're saying. It makes strategic sense, from management's perspective, to dissemble in public statements. However, from the fans' perspective (particularly run-of-the-mill fans and not tanking savants like those here), they can legitimately see this as a bait and switch, enticing them to invest money, time, and emotion into what they think will be a legit attempt to field a competitive product only to be served up yet another season of deliberate, strategic losing. I don't blame them one bit if they get pissed. In fact, I wish more would, showing their displeasure via smaller crowds, lower ratings, and hearty boos during God-awful performances like Charlotte.

This goes to one of my many beefs against tanking – looking at it from the fans’ perspective, not ownership/FO perspective – it exploits the unique dynamics of sports fandom. When owners and front offices intentionally deliver an uncompetitive product while maintaining prices, they leverage the captive nature of their audience. Unlike other entertainment industries, fans develop deep emotional and generational attachments that prevent easy switching to competitors. NBA teams benefit from legal monopolies, public stadium financing, and extraordinary fan loyalty, yet face minimal accountability for deliberately providing inferior entertainment. This arguably creates a fundamental betrayal of the implied contract between teams and fans: organizations make good-faith efforts to compete and provide value-for-investment (financial and emotional) in exchange for loyal support.

The longer the intentional losing continues, the more it resembles a systematic breach of basic consumer trust. Fans continue paying premium prices while receiving a product that ownership has deliberately made inferior, essentially subsidizing a multi-year experiment with a highly uncertain return.

This goes to another of my annoyances about tanking: the almost complete lack of critical discourse around it, including its effectiveness, ethics, and associated reasoning fallacies. I really wish the NBA media landscape were open to a more robust discussion of these issues, or any discussion, for that matter. The collective and uncritical groupthink around tanking drives me crazy.

With that said, I would like to keep our pick next year, so three cheers for the tank, I suppose, though the cheers are offered through gritted teeth and with a healthy dose of self-loathing.

Good post

 

[HermanG]

I don't think that was the plan. I do think we are currently in on Walker and want to keep him. I def think we don't want him to walk for nothing. I do think they play some hardball this summer and it may or may not workout for us.

We will see what the cap space landscape looks like after the deadline but at a minimum Wiz, Lakers, and Atlanta will have interest and the ability to get to an amount of cap space we may not love. I think its more likely than not Walker sticks around though... even if we aren't his first choice. I think the money could be more than what he would have settled for last offseason but maybe we do something with the additional space so its still an overall win.

Learning about the ability to double dip was my first moment when I started questionning the "we dont really want him" narrative.

 

[Elizah Huge]

I’m a little late to the party here but Austin likely doesn’t want to tank. I don’t blame him. It ****ing sucks. I said this during the trade Rudy/Donovan discussions. Tear downs suck.

Now, he knows what he has to do. It doesn’t mean he wants to but he knows what has to happen.

 

[underdog]

Zach Lowe said on his pod that Lauri is legitimately sick from what he's heard. Take that for what its worth.

What Zach says must be true. I heard in a parking lot that Presti asked the league to look into Lauri, and when their doctors came to check him, Lauri contracted a monster form of the flu from their handshakes.