Coach Ellis
Well-Known Member
Considering the number of picks that the Jazz have coming up, I decided to take a look at successful 2nd round picks and try to get an idea of what factors the Jazz should be looking for. I wanted to see if the picks they have this year (#42 & #54) are worth using, or if they should trade up. I also wanted to see if my impression that older players make more successful 2nd round picks was accurate. I went back to 2006, since that was the first year after they stopped letting kids jump strait from high school to the draft. The year before, there were 3 longtime NBA players (C. J. Miles, Monta Ellis and Andray Blatche) that came directly from high school and were picked in the 2nd round.
Over the nine years that I used, I found 44 players that I consider either as starters or key reserves. Of those players, five are All-Stars caliber players - Paul Millsap, Marc Gasol, DeAndre Jordan, Goran Dragic and Draymond Green. And fourteen others are what I would consider highly capable, starter caliber players - Nikola Pekovic, Mario Chalmers, Omer Asik, Patrick Beverley, Danny Green, Hassan Whiteside, Lance Stephenson, Chandler Parsons, Isaiah Thomas, Jae Crowder, Khris Middleton, Ray McCallum, K. J. McDaniels and Jordan Clarkson. Everyone else, I considered as key reserves, or career backups.
Seniors (16) and Juniors (13) make up the majority of the players that have been successful (66%), while there were about the same number of International players (8) as there were Sophomores (4) and Freshmen (3) combined.
Of the 19 "High Level Players" that I identified, twelve were drafted before pick #42, while seven were taken with pick #42 or later. There were only six players out of the whole group who were picked after #54, and only two of them (Isaiah Thomas and Ramon Sessions) have been high level starters.
Before 42 - Nikola Pekovic (31), Mario Chalmers (34), DeAndre Jordan (35), Omer Asik (36), Hassan Whiteside (33), Lance Stephenson (40), Chandler Parsons (38), Jae Crowder (34), Draymond Green (35), Khris Middleton (39), Ray McCallum (36) and K. J. McDaniels (32)
42 or later - Paul Millsap (47), Marc Gasol (48), Goran Dragic (45), Patrick Beverley (42), Danny Green (46), Isaiah Thomas (60) and Jordan Clarkson (46).
My overall impression after going through the last 9 years of 2nd round draft picks. . .
Over the nine years that I used, I found 44 players that I consider either as starters or key reserves. Of those players, five are All-Stars caliber players - Paul Millsap, Marc Gasol, DeAndre Jordan, Goran Dragic and Draymond Green. And fourteen others are what I would consider highly capable, starter caliber players - Nikola Pekovic, Mario Chalmers, Omer Asik, Patrick Beverley, Danny Green, Hassan Whiteside, Lance Stephenson, Chandler Parsons, Isaiah Thomas, Jae Crowder, Khris Middleton, Ray McCallum, K. J. McDaniels and Jordan Clarkson. Everyone else, I considered as key reserves, or career backups.
Seniors (16) and Juniors (13) make up the majority of the players that have been successful (66%), while there were about the same number of International players (8) as there were Sophomores (4) and Freshmen (3) combined.
Of the 19 "High Level Players" that I identified, twelve were drafted before pick #42, while seven were taken with pick #42 or later. There were only six players out of the whole group who were picked after #54, and only two of them (Isaiah Thomas and Ramon Sessions) have been high level starters.
Before 42 - Nikola Pekovic (31), Mario Chalmers (34), DeAndre Jordan (35), Omer Asik (36), Hassan Whiteside (33), Lance Stephenson (40), Chandler Parsons (38), Jae Crowder (34), Draymond Green (35), Khris Middleton (39), Ray McCallum (36) and K. J. McDaniels (32)
42 or later - Paul Millsap (47), Marc Gasol (48), Goran Dragic (45), Patrick Beverley (42), Danny Green (46), Isaiah Thomas (60) and Jordan Clarkson (46).
My overall impression after going through the last 9 years of 2nd round draft picks. . .
- The Jazz can get a decent player at #42 if they keep that pick, but they greatly improve their likelihood of getting a good player if they trade up.
- International players are hard to figure out. Most of them don't ever come over, but some of the best players drafted in the 2nd round (Marc Gasol, Goran Dragic, Nikola Pekovic, Omar Asik and Patrick Beverley) were all playing in Europe when they were drafted.
- A lot of troubled players get picked in the 2nd round. I think that it's a pretty good spot to take a chance on a player with some question marks.
- The #54 pick has almost no value at all. If they don't trade up with it, then they should just use it on their highest rated international player and then hope to use their rights as a trade chip down the road.
- Players I'm taking a closer look at for the late 1st / early 2nd round - PG: Delon Wright, PF: Chris McCullough, PF: Cliff Alexander, C/PF: Mouhammadou Jaiteh, PG: George De Paula, SF/SG: Timothe Luwawu, C: Dakari Johnson, C/PF: Rakeem Christmas, PG: Terry Rozier, SG: Michael Qualls and SG: Tyler Harvey. These guys all seem to be players who could be worth drafting in that range.
