Ace Bailey Hype thread

[The Jazz Wonderbra]

One of my favorite things about Ace in the Spurs game was the high efficiency. He didnt force shots because he is the guy. He let the game come to him. His shots were almost all really good. 7 of 9 at some point for 14 points.

I didnt love the end of the game, down four points and passing the ball off. That was a little odd. I want to see him shoot it and go for the steal, but pass it and have someone else shoot.

Nitpicking? Yeah, prolly. But Ace looks like a fantastic pick!

 

[seattlejazzfan]

And? Players move up and down the board all the time. Ace was not the clear 3rd best prospect at all. The biggest harm to Ace’s draft stock was his poor play at Rutgers.

ace didn't play poorly at rutgers. the only people who think he played poorly are the ones who overthink it by getting too deep into the weeds. if one didn't like him as a prospect, this is probably the reason why - too much overthinking.

the fact is, he averaged 18 and 7 on 46% FGs, and was a plus defender as one of the youngest freshmen in cbb, in one of the best conferences in cbb. 18 and 7 for a frosh in a top conference is objectively good to very good.

 

[KqWIN]

ace didn't play poorly at rutgers. the only people who think he played poorly are the ones who overthink it by getting too deep into the weeds. if one didn't like him as a prospect, this is probably the reason why - too much overthinking.

the fact is, he averaged 18 and 7 on 46% FGs, and was a plus defender as one of the youngest freshmen in cbb, in one of the best conferences in cbb. 18 and 7 for a frosh in a top conference is objectively good to very good.

I despise the "you're overthinking it" talk. It's completely arbitrary to determine what counts as "overthinking" and it's more or less saying "you don't think about it the way I do." People can have their own ways of evaluating things and that's fine, but I really don't understand the policing of how people evaluate. I could very easily say your argument is overthinking it. That phrase is meaningless.

 

[seattlejazzfan]

I despise the "you're overthinking it" talk. It's completely arbitrary to determine what counts as "overthinking" and it's more or less saying "you don't think about it the way I do." People can have their own ways of evaluating things and that's fine, but I really don't understand the policing of how people evaluate. I could very easily say your argument is overthinking it. That phrase is meaningless.

the bolded. no it's literally not. 18 and 7 for a frosh in a top conference is objectively good. there has literally never been a freshman basketball player in the history of college basketball who put up at least 18 and 7 in a top 4 conference who didn't have a good freshman season.

THIS is important: that doesn't mean you have to love him or even like him as a nba prospect, but arguing that any freshman in a power conference who put up 18 and 7 played poorly is like arguing will hardy isn't the head coach of the utah jazz. in other words, i'm not policing how you or anybody evaluates a prospect - what i'm saying is that it makes zero sense and defies all logic to say that guy played poorly during that freshman season.

 

[KqWIN]

the bolded. no it's literally not. 18 and 7 for a frosh in a top conference is objectively good. there has literally never been a freshman basketball player in the history of college basketball who put up at least 18 and 7 in a top 4 conference who didn't have a good freshman season.

THIS is important: that doesn't mean you have to love him or even like him as a prospect, but arguing that any freshman in a power conference who put up 18 and 7 played poorly is like arguing will hardy isn't the head coach of the utah jazz. in other words, i'm not policing how you or anybody evaluates a prospect - what i'm saying is that it makes zero sense and defies all logic to say that guy played poorly during that season.

It is completely arbitrary. For example, I was told I was overthinking it because I didn't like Tre's defense. But with Ace it's ok to mention defense. There is no universal thing that decides what counts as overthinking and what does not. I could very easily dismiss all of this context you put around his numbers as overthinking it because there is no rule. By adding color and context you are actually making an argument. Dismissing context and color as "overthinking" is not an argument. When you dismiss actual arguments due to overthinking, you are policing the way people think and deciding for them what matters. Some people care about 18 and 7. Some people care about more things, some people care about even less things. There are some people who dismissed Ace/Harper because "how can he and Harper be so good if their team sucked". That has less thinking involved than yourself, but it isn't necessarily more correct is it? Nobody gets to draw the line of what is considered overthinking and what is not.

Ace is not a prospect that passed my initial sniff test, but the harder I thought about it the more optimistic I got about him. If I thought less, I would have a different opinion than you. What you're really saying is that I must have thought the way you thought.

 

[Step-Back Lauri]

I saw an opinion in Finnish bball discussion that Ace's early glow up would make Lauri trade more likely, but I think it'd be counterintuitive. Wouldn't this be exactly what they want? Especially as there's no immediate cap relieve pressure to fit the main pieces from rookie deal guys under the cap.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I saw an opinion in Finnish bball discussion that Ace's early glow up would make Lauri trade more likely, but I think it'd be counterintuitive. Wouldn't this be exactly what they want? Especially as there's no immediate cap relieve pressure to fit the main pieces from rookie deal guys under the cap.

Tony and I traded messages on X and he said it makes it more likely we keep Lauri (he said it wasn't reporting and was speculation) because we have a guy who could be a number 1 in house. I think it depends on what offers come in, the other roster developments too - what if Taylor and Flip looks like studs or you draft Boozer?

I think the plan is likely to hold on to him until something knocks that off course - big trade offer, Lauri asks out, roster crunch with the young guys at 4... maybe a combo of all 3.

 

[HadAnEffectHere]

I saw an opinion in Finnish bball discussion that Ace's early glow up would make Lauri trade more likely, but I think it'd be counterintuitive. Wouldn't this be exactly what they want? Especially as there's no immediate cap relieve pressure to fit the main pieces from rookie deal guys under the cap.

It very much depends on Ace's development towards winning and what playstyle he develops. Ace has played well in the first two preseason games by... playing like Lauri Markkanen. He's a giant shooter who can score inside and out off screens right now. If he continues to develop along that path, then and Markkanen are a pretty awful fit together without an elite shot creating guard the Jazz don't have. If Ace develops more into like Paul George, then obviously he and Markkanen fit well, but how long will it take for Ace to become a high level passer and ball handler?

In general, the roster makes no sense which is fine for now, but obviously guys will have to be moved whenever the team actually tries to win. Markkanen, Filipowski, and Hendricks are all PFs and Ace is obviously headed to being a PF in 3-4 years. Some of these guys will be moved.

 

[KqWIN]

Idk how the FO feels, but I don't really like Ace's status is the driving factor behind a Lauri decisions. The driving factor in the Lauri decision is that he likely has a very small trade market and wouldn't yield much in a trade.

 

[HadAnEffectHere]

Idk how the FO feels, but I don't really like Ace's status is the driving factor behind a Lauri decisions. The driving factor in the Lauri decision is that he likely has a very small trade market and wouldn't yield much in a trade.

Yeah, I think the only way Ace influences if Lauri is traded is if the Jazz cannot get their young players enough shots/minutes with how much overlap all of their top prospects (other than Kessler) have with Lauri.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Idk how the FO feels, but I don't really like Ace's status is the driving factor behind a Lauri decisions. The driving factor in the Lauri decision is that he likely has a very small trade market and wouldn't yield much in a trade.

Probably one of a dozen factors.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

It very much depends on Ace's development towards winning and what playstyle he develops. Ace has played well in the first two preseason games by... playing like Lauri Markkanen. He's a giant shooter who can score inside and out off screens right now. If he continues to develop along that path, then and Markkanen are a pretty awful fit together without an elite shot creating guard the Jazz don't have. If Ace develops more into like Paul George, then obviously he and Markkanen fit well, but how long will it take for Ace to become a high level passer and ball handler?

In general, the roster makes no sense which is fine for now, but obviously guys will have to be moved whenever the team actually tries to win. Markkanen, Filipowski, and Hendricks are all PFs and Ace is obviously headed to being a PF in 3-4 years. Some of these guys will be moved.

I think Ace is more of a 3 that can go up and play 4. I don't think too rigidly about 3 and 4 though. I think the issue if you run Lauri, Ace, Walker or Taylor as you main front court is that you will have some ball handling and passing deficiencies unless the guards are great at that. Right now we don't have those guards.

I think its a great problem to have if we do end up with the logjam. I wonder if getting a guy like AJ or Boozer would be a tipping point to settle on a Lauri trade.