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Al/Paul Lineups since 2010/11

GVC said:
As for PER v. +/-, a list of 5 names doesn't do anything for me for a number of reasons. If you want to have that discussion, you'll have to first explain to me the methodology Hollinger used to construct PER so I can explain why that methodology is flawed. I'm not amped up for that discussion, but I can meet you half way if you're serious about it.
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Player_efficiency_rating


For those that are interested. Its major weakness is measuring defense that doesn't have a stat attached.
 
Qman said:
Its major weakness is measuring defense that doesn't have a stat attached.
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I actually think that's just a symptom of its major weakness.

PER is built on the assumption that because team totals of the box score stats are correlated with wins/losses, the value of those (team) statistics to a team can be applied to the individual players who accumulate them. While someone on the team must score the ball when the team scores, it's unusual for the player who actually scores the bucket to be accountable for its full value, for example. Thus, setting good screens, making good passes that eventually lead to a good shot, executing in the halfcourt in general, running the floor (especially to get back on defense), and team and man D are completely ignored by PER (basketball is a dynamic game, with 10 players interacting at the same time). To compound this problem, context is not considered in using the statistics to calculate PER (all shots, rebounds, assists, etc. are created equal). There's no way to build confidence intervals around PER because the methodology makes testing the relationship between a player's PER and team wins impossible (i'm no pro here, so if there's a legit stats guy on the board...).

Because fans are conditioned to check box scores to find out who contributed to their team's success, they trust PER since it's just a repackaging of the box score (a bad case of confirmation bias). Garbage in, garbage out. GMs hand out contracts to players who do well in box scores because thy aren't any more analytical than the fans (KOC talking about point per shot recently...).
 
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PER has it's troubles. But so does +/-. See Mario Chalmers. +13.2 or the 5th highest in the league. Man if I played with Lebron I could probably get a pretty high +/- as well. Then the guy that anchors some offense when Lebron is sitting like Bosh is at +4.0. Is Chalmers really better than Bosh, and by a good margin, or is it simply that some play with James more often than others. Is it their backups that are influencing their rating. Bosh is +8.4 on the field bit when he leaves the team is still +4.4.
 
Lion's Roar said:
PER has it's troubles. But so does +/-. See Mario Chalmers. +13.2 or the 5th highest in the league. Man if I played with Lebron I could probably get a pretty high +/- as well. Then the guy that anchors some offense when Lebron is sitting like Bosh is at +4.0. Is Chalmers really better than Bosh, and by a good margin, or is it simply that some play with James more often than others. Is it their backups that are influencing their rating. Bosh is +8.4 on the field bit when he leaves the team is still +4.4.
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Keep in mind, I'm using +/- to compare two players on the same team, with similar roles/minutes, who play with similar teammates and against similar opponents, using a 3-year sample. I wasn't comparing Millsap/Jefferson to Chalmers.
 
Lion's Roar said:
Even in the same team with same team mates the stat can be misleading. See Chalmers/Bosh.
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They're both starting big men with similar roles/minutes? What star has Millsap played with so much more than Al over the last 3 years to account for the huge difference in their +/-? I don't care to participate in a discussion headed in this direction.
 
colton said:
Also, when Lindsey was hired he had the rep of being a stats/metrics guy. So we have to think he knows the type of info in the OP and will take it into account in the off season. Don't we?
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****, I hope he's using far better info/data. He should have access to all the synergy sports data (only a small portion of it is available for free at mysynergysports.com) at the very least. Unfortunately, the Jazz are not one of the teams that subscribes to SPORTS LLC (or whatever that tracking camera company is called...meh). Hopefully the people they have analyzing the data are competent, and the FO/coaches are flexible/intelligent enough to assimilate good analysis, no matter how heterodox.
 
Lion's Roar said:
Top 5 on/off court by 82games.com 2011-12:

Chris Paul
Ryan Anderson
Steve Nash
Kevin Garnett
Blake Griffin

PER:

James
Paul
Wade
Durant
Love

So yes I don't like it when ppl are using +/- or on court/ off court and talking trash of PER.




I can go get the post where ppl were referring to $12M. I said Ilyasova and Anderson got close to $8M.

Since 4 is half of 8 and 8 + 4 = 12 then yes difference is 50%.



It makes sense to put forth a contract with decreasing values. Signing bonus doesn't make much sense financial wise. Do you remember when Ak signed his contract? Did you know part of the money was actually deferred past the 6 years of the contract to help the Jazz? Did we go from having to defer payments to giving away signing bonus in 8 years?

The idea of contract renegotiation and signing bonus was cool cause it meant that the second year contract could drop like a rock. Since the new contract won't be a renegotiation the contract is still limited by the 7,5% decrease in salary. So giving a signing bonus isn't relevant at all and a waste of the team's money.
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since basketball is a TEAM game i'd rather have +-
than per.
jefferson and boozah have great per but suck at basketball
 
Corbin is crazy to not start Favors with Millsap at the 3. They're always talking about his "guard skills". Any (rumored) defensive liability would be neutralized by having Favors roaming the paint.
 
DutchJazzer said:
since basketball is a TEAM game i'd rather have +-
than per.
jefferson and boozah have great per but suck at basketball
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Ever thought that might say more about you than about the stats? Time to consider you might be biasely (is that a word?)looking at players.
 
green said:
More thoughts. Paul is our best player. Clearly.

Even last year, when Al was in the positive, when you look at the stats, it wasn't Al that was good. It was Paul that carried this team.

This year, Paul is a +13 when he is on the court without Al. What does that tell you? That Favors and Kanter are better than Al. To have a 17 pt swing when Al is on the court without Paul, to when Paul is on the court with Favors/Kanter is shocking.

Also, this completely makes all of you people that want Favors and Al to start look silly. nobody can play next to Al. Favors needs to be near the basket to really shine as a defender. Al needs to be near the basket to hide. You can't play them both together defensively.

Al is the problem on this team. It begins and ends with him. He is our fifth best big, and there is no reason he should get any minutes the remainder of the year. Find out if Paul can take over this team for the rest of the year. Let Kanter blossom and get the minutes he needs to be great. Give Favors a chance to actually play a little offense (and not the Al offense. That isn't Favors' game. Run plays Favors will excel at).
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fixed
 
green said:
my only argument against this, is that you can't play favors and jefferson together. Defensively they are beyond terrible. I think favors is a better defender than kanter, and while kanter is much better offensively, i think he is still a little too young to get starting minutes.

I would start millsap and favors, and have kanter be the first big off the bench. Evans as 4th big and use al only in garbage time.
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fixed
 
Catchall said:
You can infer from GVC's numbers and common knowledge that the frontcourt combo with the highest +/- is Favors/Sap.

I would have thought it would be Favors/Kanter, which is basically implied by neither Al nor Sap being on the floor. However, that line-up comes in 2nd this year, not first.

If you put stock in these numbers alone, you would conclude that Sap is worth keeping on the team.

There might be one more hidden factor, however, which is that when Al is off the floor, so is Randy Foye likely off the floor, and so is Marvin Williams likely off the floor. That's why I prefer the analyses that look at 3 and 4-man combinations. Those analyses are more apples-to-apples, and they come to the conclusion that Foye, and to a lesser extent Tinsley and Marvin, are killing us.
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your marvin williams stuff is getting shattered marvin is comming into his own in the 2nd unit.
while carroll starts sucking
 
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