An explanation of why, mathematically, this has been the most frustration Jazz season of all time.

[MT Steve]

EDIT: Added the Lakers game.

This is kind of a long one. If you just want the tldr version, scroll to the bottom.

The Simple Rating System (SRS) is a number that is calculated by taking a team's average point margin and adjusting it up or down depending on the strength of their opponents. An above average team's SRS will be positive - a below average team's SRS would be negative. As a result, if you add up every team's SRS in the NBA, you'd wind up with 0. An exactly average team's SRS would be exactly 0.

Historically, SRS has been a more accurate indicator of playoff success than regular season record.

Despite all the injuries, Utah's SRS this season was 2.03 - good for 10th in the NBA and 5th in the Western Conference. This SRS is typical of a team that wins around 47 games. I only went back to the 1999-2000 season, but I did not find a single team with an SRS above 2.00 that did not finish with a winning record. We will be the first of this millennium, and maybe ever.

So why does SRS say, even factoring in all the injuries, that we are a top 10 team when we couldn't even finish with a winning record? The obvious explanation is that we lost an extraordinary amount of close games. But I want to dig deeper. Look below:

@ DET, up by 1 with 23 seconds left
@ CLE, up by 9 with 7 minutes left
vs GSW, up by 2 with 2 minutes left
@ OKC, up by 9 with 7 minutes left
vs NO, up 6 going into the 4th
vs LAC, up 3 with 3 minutes left
vs HOU, up 8 going into the 4th
@ CHA, up 4 with 3 minutes left
@ NYK, up 10 early in the 4th
@ NO, up 8 with 11 minutes left
@ POR, up 13 early in the 3rd, up 2 with 1:30 left
@ BOS, up 13 in the 2nd, up 2 with 30 seconds left
@ MEM, up 14 early, up 5 going into the 4th
vs GSW, up 8 with 7 minutes left, up 3 with 24 seconds left
vs SAS, up 1 with 1 minute left
vs LAC, up 7 with 2:30 left, up 4 with 46 seconds left
vs LAL, up by 10 with 3 minutes left

These account for about 40% of our losses. Granted, I included some results in there that you might've expected even while we had the lead (such as the DET one, the GSW ones, the SAS one, etc...). Also, you'd expect a team to blow late leads here and there throughout the season. Individually, none of these are that surprising.

The point I want to illustrate is, in aggregate, we had a HUGE volume of losses of this nature - where we had a solid 4th quarter lead or a lead very late. stats.nba.com has clutch stats for every team, which shows, among other things, each team's offensive rating and defensive rating (points scored and allowed per 100 possessions, respectively), in situations where the game was within 5 points with 5 or fewer minutes remaining, Utah's defensive rating was a staggeringly awful 120.6 - good for 27th in the NBA. Their offensive efficiency was 104.8, which was 19th in the NBA.

A note - you'd expect offensive and defensive efficiency ratings to both increase in the clutch because of all the intentional fouling going on. Throughout the entire season, our offensive rating was 15th in the NBA (103.2), and our defensive rating was 7th in the NBA (101.5). So while our offense in the clutch was slightly worse than it was overall (15th to 19th), our defense in the clutch completely dropped off a cliff (7th to 27th).

So... what the hell? Why did our defense suck so bad in the clutch compared to the rest of the game? One of the biggest reasons was our rebounding. Overall, we collected 77.7% of available defensive rebounds (7th in the NBA). In the clutch, that number nosedives to only 70.4% (28th in the NBA). For whatever reason, our guys could not collect a damn rebound when games were close late. Also, and this is more subjective, but I thought that players consistently got out of character on defense late in close games throughout the season. We got less disciplined, over-rotated, over-helped, and, in a nutshell, panicked. That probably also contributed to not being in position to gather key rebounds.

Two conclusions here (or the tldr summary):

1: This was easily the most frustrating season in Jazz history. We had a large volume of close losses where we led late. However, it is extremely encouraging that, even with the amount of injuries we had and our youth, SRS still has us as a top 10 team.

2: Our defense was terrific overall, but it needs to be way better in close games. Specifically, it needs to be just as disciplined in the clutch as it is through the rest of the game, and rebounding has GOT to be an emphasis at the end of close games. Failure to defend and rebound in close games cost us a lot of games, and there's no reason that shouldn't be fixable.

 

[RJF]

Just closing out HALF on that list, firmly in 5th. Sigh.

 

[MT Steve]

Just closing out HALF on that list, firmly in 5th. Sigh.

Not even that. Just give them the Portland game and one or two others and they finish 5th.

 

[Douchebag K]

all this says - young inexperienced team that is trying to learn how to win. I think with all the injuries and inexperience it's pretty damn amazing that we were in so many games. How many blowouts were there or games where we were really clearly beaten ?? a small handful ? In pro sports for an inexperienced young team i think that's pretty amazing. So many games where we got down and just kept coming back again and again

 

[fishonjazz]

This is kind of a long one. If you just want the tldr version, scroll to the bottom.

The Simple Rating System (SRS) is a number that is calculated by taking a team's average point margin and adjusting it up or down depending on the strength of their opponents. An above average team's SRS will be positive - a below average team's SRS would be negative. As a result, if you add up every team's SRS in the NBA, you'd wind up with 0. An exactly average team's SRS would be exactly 0.

Historically, SRS has been a more accurate indicator of playoff success than regular season record.

Despite all the injuries, Utah's SRS this season was 2.03 - good for 10th in the NBA and 5th in the Western Conference. This SRS is typical of a team that wins around 47 games. I only went back to the 1999-2000 season, but I did not find a single team with an SRS above 2.00 that did not finish with a winning record. We will be the first of this millennium, and maybe ever.

So why does SRS say, even factoring in all the injuries, that we are a top 10 team when we couldn't even finish with a winning record? The obvious explanation is that we lost an extraordinary amount of close games. But I want to dig deeper. Look below:

@ DET, up by 1 with 23 seconds left
@ CLE, up by 9 with 7 minutes left
vs GSW, up by 2 with 2 minutes left
@ OKC, up by 9 with 7 minutes left
vs NO, up 6 going into the 4th
vs LAC, up 3 with 3 minutes left
vs HOU, up 8 going into the 4th
@ CHA, up 4 with 3 minutes left
@ NYK, up 10 early in the 4th
@ NO, up 8 with 11 minutes left
@ POR, up 13 early in the 3rd, up 2 with 1:30 left
@ BOS, up 13 in the 2nd, up 2 with 30 seconds left
@ MEM, up 14 early, up 5 going into the 4th
vs GSW, up 8 with 7 minutes left, up 3 with 24 seconds left
vs SAS, up 1 with 1 minute left
vs LAC, up 7 with 2:30 left, up 4 with 46 seconds left

These account for about 40% of our losses. Granted, I included some results in there that you might've expected even while we had the lead (such as the DET one, the GSW ones, the SAS one, etc...). Also, you'd expect a team to blow late leads here and there throughout the season. Individually, none of these are that surprising.

The point I want to illustrate is, in aggregate, we had a HUGE volume of losses of this nature - where we had a solid 4th quarter lead or a lead very late. stats.nba.com has clutch stats for every team, which shows, among other things, each team's offensive rating and defensive rating (points scored and allowed per 100 possessions, respectively), in situations where the game was within 5 points with 5 or fewer minutes remaining, Utah's defensive rating was a staggeringly awful 120.6 - good for 27th in the NBA. Their offensive efficiency was 104.8, which was 19th in the NBA.

A note - you'd expect offensive and defensive efficiency ratings to both increase in the clutch because of all the intentional fouling going on. Throughout the entire season, our offensive rating was 15th in the NBA (103.2), and our defensive rating was 7th in the NBA (101.5). So while our offense in the clutch was slightly worse than it was overall (15th to 19th), our defense in the clutch completely dropped off a cliff (7th to 27th).

So... what the hell? Why did our defense suck so bad in the clutch compared to the rest of the game? One of the biggest reasons was our rebounding. Overall, we collected 77.7% of available defensive rebounds (7th in the NBA). In the clutch, that number nosedives to only 70.4% (28th in the NBA). For whatever reason, our guys could not collect a damn rebound when games were close late. Also, and this is more subjective, but I thought that players consistently got out of character on defense late in close games throughout the season. We got less disciplined, over-rotated, over-helped, and, in a nutshell, panicked. That probably also contributed to not being in position to gather key rebounds.

Two conclusions here (or the tldr summary):

1: This was easily the most frustrating season in Jazz history. We had a large volume of close losses where we led late. However, it is extremely encouraging that, even with the amount of injuries we had and our youth, SRS still has us as a top 10 team.

2: Our defense was terrific overall, but it needs to be way better in close games. Specifically, it needs to be just as disciplined in the clutch as it is through the rest of the game, and rebounding has GOT to be an emphasis at the end of close games. Failure to defend and rebound in close games cost us a lot of games, and there's no reason that shouldn't be fixable.

One of the best posts of all time. Extremely well done.
This post kind of confirms to me that the cake was pretty tasty. Injuries, inexperience, bad luck, not having a star player to kind of take over down the stretch... Kicked our ***. But overall the current roster is pretty Damn good.
I feel good about this team going forward into next year and beyond.

 

[MT Steve]

all this says - young inexperienced team that is trying to learn how to win. I think with all the injuries and inexperience it's pretty damn amazing that we were in so many games. How many blowouts were there or games where we were really clearly beaten ?? a small handful ? In pro sports for an inexperienced young team i think that's pretty amazing. So many games where we got down and just kept coming back again and again

Yeah, great point. They only lost 13 games this year by double digits or more. In games where Favors and Gobert were both starting, the Jazz only lost 7 games by double digits - 1 to GSW, 1 to San Antonio, 2 to OKC, 1 @ Toronto, the game at Washington right after the all-star break, and our first home game against Portland when Favors was a game-time decision because he was sick.

 

[candrew]

all this says - young inexperienced team that is trying to learn how to win. I think with all the injuries and inexperience it's pretty damn amazing that we were in so many games. How many blowouts were there or games where we were really clearly beaten ?? a small handful ? In pro sports for an inexperienced young team i think that's pretty amazing. So many games where we got down and just kept coming back again and again

And a coach that's learning too.

 

[MT Steve]

One of the best posts of all time. Extremely well done.
This post kind of confirms to me that the cake was pretty tasty. Injuries, inexperience, bad luck, not having a star player to kind of take over down the stretch... Kicked our ***. But overall the current roster is pretty Damn good.
I feel good about this team going forward into next year and beyond.

Thanks.

That's what I hoped to communicate. The thread title is probably a bit negative, but the reason it was so frustrating is because this team is so much better than its record shows. If they fix their defensive issues at the end of close games and have average health, their win total should explode next season.

 

[akirac73]

I would also correlate this to mean that our best players have a tendency to choke at the end of close games. Missing easy shots, missing free throws, dribblint too much, turnovers, taking bad shots, unable to secure rebounds, etc.

 

[b_line]

This is great. Flip around the close losses to close wins at around the league average and the jazz are challenging clippers for the four seed. Those close games were lost because of lack of experience. Now they have more experience, and hopefully sign a couple of vets. Especially wing vets that are smart defensively.

 

[Douchebag K]

I would also correlate this to mean that our best players have a tendency to choke at the end of close games. Missing easy shots, missing free throws, dribblint too much, turnovers, taking bad shots, unable to secure rebounds, etc.

blah blah blah blah blah blah blah

utter drivel

 

[b_line]

I would also correlate this to mean that our best players have a tendency to choke at the end of close games. Missing easy shots, missing free throws, dribblint too much, turnovers, taking bad shots, unable to secure rebounds, etc.

You are probably wring though. Hayward is one if the most clutch guys in the league per his stats. But I guess that doesn't pass the eye test. Hood is not great in clutch yet, even though everyone seems to think so.

The main problem late in games for the jazz is not their offense. It's the defense. We go from being great defensively to being far below average in late game situations.

 

[Ron Mexico]

I also think that players hit incredibly hard and difficult shots against the Jazz that they dont normally make in late game situations. We saw players who make threes that havent made one all season, fade away shots with hands in their face, clutch performances from stars and from scrubs there was some crazy bad luck in games that came down to 1 or 2 shots. Next year I think we have more depth, we are improved internally, we are healthier. When that happens we will win more games by a larger margin and not let it come down 1 or 2 shots. Those situations are a crap shoot.

 

[The Midnight]

Re-enforces my belief that we still lack a 'closer' if we're going to make a serious run at the playoffs next year.

 

[MT Steve]

I also think that players hit incredibly hard and difficult shots against the Jazz that they dont normally make in late game situations. We saw players who make threes that havent made one all season, fade away shots with hands in their face, clutch performances from stars and from scrubs there was some crazy bad luck in games that came down to 1 or 2 shots. Next year I think we have more depth, we are improved internally, we are healthier. When that happens we will win more games by a larger margin and not let it come down 1 or 2 shots. Those situations are a crap shoot.

Bad luck definitely has a lot to do with it. We definitely had more than our fair share of guys hitting crazy difficult shots against us in close games.

 

[MT Steve]

You are probably wring though. Hayward is one if the most clutch guys in the league per his stats. But I guess that doesn't pass the eye test. Hood is not great in clutch yet, even though everyone seems to think so.

The main problem late in games for the jazz is not their offense. It's the defense. We go from being great defensively to being far below average in late game situations.

This is right. Our offense is ho-hum at the end of close games because it's ho-hum in general. There's not much difference in how good our offense is overall and in the clutch.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Re-enforces my belief that we still lack a 'closer' if we're going to make a serious run at the playoffs next year.

Except Hayward has one of the best FG% in the clutch this year.

 

[The Midnight]

Except Hayward has one of the best FG% in the clutch this year.

Really?


OK but I'm talking about guys like Jamaal Crawford, Joe Johnson, ..etc.. not really top tier guys (so they are affordable), but guys that can give us an easy late game basket when count upon.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Really?


OK but I'm talking about guys like Jamaal Crawford, Joe Johnson, ..etc.. not really top tier guys (so they are affordable), but guys that can give us an easy late game basket when count upon.

So you think guys like Crawfrd and Johnson just make all their late game baskets? IDK why these guys havent been winning championships.

Our problem isn't lack of a "closer", it's a lack of a PG and lack of an offensive system in late game situations. Just adding another good ISO option doesnt solve any of our problems. Hayward and Hood are near the top of the league in ISO's. The problem is we overly rely on isolation and difficult shot-making.

 

[NAOS]

A very vocal jazzfanzer tried to bury me for saying we need a Bulldog out on the perimeter. In other words, for saying we need a lockdown defensive guru who could disrupt offenses in late-game situations. I think the case is pretty well closed: we don't have a perimeter guy who can check the most talented perimeter playmakers/scorers when we get into to grind-it-out situations.

Exum may eventually become that guy. He obviously can defend any "guard". But he could even defend "wings" if he added more strength.

But we can't wait on Exum. We need a Bulldog now, just like we needed one last October.

It's obviously time for Lindsey to get busy.