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Analyzing the defense after 9 games

HermanG

HermanG

Well-Known Member
So trying to get a grasp on our defensive schemes and ideas seems like a tall task. Any analysis I've tried to do based on tape is just all over the place in terms of what causes defensive meltdowns. So lets keep this analysis on stats.

The good (Jazz rank in top 15)
  • Our defensive rebounding percentage is 5th highest (73.7%)
    • Related to that, we allow 8th fewest 2nd chance points (13.0)
The bad (Jazz rank in bottom 15)
  • We allow 15.4 fastbreak points per game (18th in NBA)
  • We have the 3rd worst DFG differential, meaning we allow our opponents 3rd highest FG%
    • In 3 pointers we are actually pretty good, but in 2 pointers we the absolute worst
  • We are dead last in the league in team steals (5.3 per game)
  • We foul and give free throws at the 3rd highest rate (!!!!)
  • We allow the most points of turnovers (21.7 per game)
  • We allow 5th most paint points (!!!!!)
  • We have 8th fewest team blocks per game (!!!!!)
So if we combine some of that information it indicates that we dont play aggressive defense (being the worst STOCKS team), but then again we foul shooters a lot. To me that is strong proof that the defensive playmaking of our players is on a very low level. Usually aggressive defenses foul more and get more STOCKS, but we are passive and still foul. So it might not be about the scheme as much as we think. Also our paint defense has been abysmal, which is weird considering we hold size advantage against most opponents.

Looking at individual performers few things pop out:
  • According to on/off impact, Lauri, THT and Kris Dunn are by far our 3 best defenders (all 3 are -10 or better in points allowed per 100 posessions when on the court), while KO, Keyonte and Sexton are our worst.
  • KO leads the NBA in free throw rate allowed with a massive +18.0 FT per 100 possessions differential when he is on the court. He also has the most personal shooting fouls per 36 minutes by far. Sexton is also bad in both of these categories as is Collins.
  • Walker Kessler struggles (injury related or not) are well reflected in his stats. His defensive on/off is +1.5 compared to -4.6 last year.
 
Also additional note:
The 3&D guy Ochai looks bad in the on/off analysis (+5.0). So it could be that he isnt that great at 3 or D.

I dont want to give up my avatar cause the dude looks like a greek statue, but he cannot be in DA's witness protection program any longer.
 
HermanG said:
Also additional note:
The 3&D guy Ochai looks bad in the on/off analysis (+5.0). So it could be that he isnt that great at 3 or D.

I dont want to give up my avatar cause the dude looks like a greek statue, but he cannot be in DA's witness protection program any longer.
Click to expand...
The value of both Sexton and Ochai is disappearing as we speak. That means Danny is suddenly under more pressure to make sure he takes full advantage of Lauri's value. One way or another. This is exactly why it's so perplexing that we're wasting his prime years.

I presume DA is already seething at the thought of headlines implying that maybe the Donovan trade wasn't an all-time masterstroke after all. But the more time passes with Lauri toiling for no reason in a horrible team that's going nowhere, the louder those voices are gonna get. Danny has to either start building a winning team quickly or trade Lauri.

Personally, I think it's starting to get more and more likely that Lauri's days in Utah are numbered.
 
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Tremendous Upside said:
The value of both Sexton and Ochai is disappearing as we speak. That means Danny is suddenly under more pressure to make sure he takes full advantage of Lauri's value. One way or another. This is exactly why it's so perplexing that we're wasting his prime years.

I presume DA is already seething at the thought of headlines implying that maybe the Donovan trade wasn't an all-time masterstroke after all. But the more time passes with Lauri toiling for no reason in a horrible team that's going nowhere, the louder those voices are gonna get. Danny has to either start building a winning team quickly or trade Lauri.

Personally, I think it's starting to get more and more likely that Lauri's days in Utah are numbered.
Click to expand...
Meanwhile mitchells team is currently in 11th place in the east, didn't do **** last year and wont do **** this year (sixers, celtics, bucks will give the cavs no chance in hell to win in the playoffs) and is going to leave the cavs with nothing first chance he gets. At which time the picks we got from cleveland for mitchell increase in value.
The donovan trade is still an all time masterstroke after all.
 
Nice work OP. This is how I look at this data:

If we can get Kessler healthy and back to his rim protection numbers from last year (fairly likely) and significantly reduce our live ball turnovers (less likely) than we can probably be an average defensive team.
 
HermanG said:
So trying to get a grasp on our defensive schemes and ideas seems like a tall task. Any analysis I've tried to do based on tape is just all over the place in terms of what causes defensive meltdowns. So lets keep this analysis on stats.

The good (Jazz rank in top 15)
  • Our defensive rebounding percentage is 5th highest (73.7%)
    • Related to that, we allow 8th fewest 2nd chance points (13.0)
The bad (Jazz rank in bottom 15)
  • We allow 15.4 fastbreak points per game (18th in NBA)
  • We have the 3rd worst DFG differential, meaning we allow our opponents 3rd highest FG%
    • In 3 pointers we are actually pretty good, but in 2 pointers we the absolute worst
  • We are dead last in the league in team steals (5.3 per game)
  • We foul and give free throws at the 3rd highest rate (!!!!)
  • We allow the most points of turnovers (21.7 per game)
  • We allow 5th most paint points (!!!!!)
  • We have 8th fewest team blocks per game (!!!!!)
So if we combine some of that information it indicates that we dont play aggressive defense (being the worst STOCKS team), but then again we foul shooters a lot. To me that is strong proof that the defensive playmaking of our players is on a very low level. Usually aggressive defenses foul more and get more STOCKS, but we are passive and still foul. So it might not be about the scheme as much as we think. Also our paint defense has been abysmal, which is weird considering we hold size advantage against most opponents.

Looking at individual performers few things pop out:
  • According to on/off impact, Lauri, THT and Kris Dunn are by far our 3 best defenders (all 3 are -10 or better in points allowed per 100 posessions when on the court), while KO, Keyonte and Sexton are our worst.
  • KO leads the NBA in free throw rate allowed with a massive +18.0 FT per 100 possessions differential when he is on the court. He also has the most personal shooting fouls per 36 minutes by far. Sexton is also bad in both of these categories as is Collins.
  • Walker Kessler struggles (injury related or not) are well reflected in his stats. His defensive on/off is +1.5 compared to -4.6 last year.
Click to expand...
Great analysis. Thanks for putting this together. To me the clearly biggest issue is lack of perimeter defense in any way. Man that has plagued us for a freaking decade now. Why can't we get any decent wing defenders?
 
HermanG said:
Also additional note:
The 3&D guy Ochai looks bad in the on/off analysis (+5.0). So it could be that he isnt that great at 3 or D.

I dont want to give up my avatar cause the dude looks like a greek statue, but he cannot be in DA's witness protection program any longer.
Click to expand...
I'm not changing mine either but at this rate Keyonte might be the only current guy on the roster who is still here as a foundation piece in 3 years. I didn't think Ainge at his age would consider the total rebuild route but it's starting to look more of a possibility. Missing out on Wemby, Ausur, and Black types in the last draft really cost this team. All 3 should be very good defenders for a long time too.
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
Hard to analyze the defense when the offense puts too much pressure on the defense
Click to expand...

Yeah it's hard to find a stat or measure this but I was thinking the same. Along with finding an adjusted stat could reflect points off TO's and fast breaks, maybe the Jazz do a bit better on D when their offense isn't killing the defense.
 
Our inept offense turns the ball over at a cosmic rate and undermines our defensive stats. Nothing like giving the other team 10 free fastbreaks every night. At least Keyonte tries to take care of the ball.
 
Ferguson_Mellochill said:
Our inept offense turns the ball over at a cosmic rate and undermines our defensive stats. Nothing like giving the other team 10 free fastbreaks every night. At least Keyonte tries to take care of the ball.
Click to expand...
Its not just fastbreaks and turnovers. It the fact that we are out of games and the body language is dejected. We are essentially getting garbage time minutes earlier than expected
 
Ferguson_Mellochill said:
Our inept offense turns the ball over at a cosmic rate and undermines our defensive stats. Nothing like giving the other team 10 free fastbreaks every night. At least Keyonte tries to take care of the ball.
Click to expand...
For mentoring Keyonte I'm missing Mike Conley.
 
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