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Dante Exum vs Marcus Smart

I'd prefer Exum. Not even strictly speaking from a contract POV as I understand Boston paying Smart what they did, but I think Exum has a higher ceiling and is a very comparable player at the moment.
 
Exum is a better offensive player than Smart and it's not even close. Sure - Smart shoots a slightly better percentage from three, but if you play Exum for almost 30 minutes a game Exum is averaging 14.4. Plus Exum's FG% is much higher and if he plays 29.9 a game as Smart did Exum's at 5.1 assists.
 
mdalby said:
Just curious if we as a whole would prefer Dante to Marcus. With Dante's limited playing time this past season, he compares favorably to Smart. I think Dante has a higher ceiling than Smart.
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Smart is who he is, mostly developed and a given entity. Low variability

Dante is whatever you imagine he might be. High variability
 
Exum is better now and has a higher ceiling.

Smart plays hard and plays good defense. But ill take Exum on defense as well. Ill take the guy that can be the best in the NBA at staying in front of his guy, the guy who has played the best defense on Harden the league has seen, and the guy who can block a 7'3" guy going in for a dunk.

Exum is adding some serious strength and filling out. He is a late bloomer physically but its coming. He explosion to the rim is going to be something else this year.

I think Rubio is going to be great but Exum is going to be pushing him this season to start. He will have to get minutes at the 1,2, and 3 spots to get his minutes assuming we are healthy. If (when?) Rubio goes down for a stretch with an Injury I think Exum will really explode this year.

 
I like Dante. I don't care how tall his ceilings are, I think I know what he is capable of, and I hope he gets there.
It has been a while of hoping though, at some point it needs to all come together.
 
Smart has a lot more durability. A much better frame for 82 game seasons.

However, I would agree that Exum has a MUCH higher ceiling.

Given ACTUAL PRODUCTION to date... Smart is about 5 times the player Dante is.

Given potential and character? Dante is probably worth 80% of Smart's contract. I would say we overpaid for Dante by about $2 million per year BUT Dante's contract includes $2 million non-guaranteed incentives. My problem with that is that if he does get injured then we are paying $9 million for fluff and potential. It's clear that Dennis is trying to prove a point to the league that Utah treats their players like people and not like objects (see wikipedia: NBA Danny Plant-AINGE-tion).

IF Dante stays healthy and reaches his potential then he could EASILY be one of the friendliest contracts in the league.
 
A better frame? Lol


Nah, dude.

It's called being in the wrong place during the wrong time. Plenty of dudes have Exum's frame in the NBA and are durable.
 
Only Jazz fans would take Dante's ceiling over Smart. But thats ok, we have a saying back home "Hope is a mother of the stupid"...
 
Exum has more potential. But can’t stay healthy enough to play.

Smart actually plays.

You can’t help your team if you miss most games due to injury.
 
MVP said:
Only Jazz fans would take Dante's ceiling over Smart. But thats ok, we have a saying back home "Hope is a mother of the stupid"...
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You can take a side, but it is not clear.

Smart is a good defender, but his defensive rating suggests that he's not transcendent... like Rudy. He's really useful and versatile... I think he's properly rated on that end of the floor.

Offensively - His combination of TS percentage and turnovers really hurt their offense... like a lot. It isn't just 3 pt shooting either... he can't finish. He also has irrational confidence which may or may not be a bad thing... but this leads to him willingly shooting bad shots. Unlike guys like Roberson who defer to a fault.

So with him it comes down to making plays that swing games... big hustle plays. He definitely does make some big plays, but do you believe they are more important is swinging momentum? they might be, but it is this nebulous, intangible measure.

Dante is theoretical. He can get to the hoop and shows flashes. He is a good defender, not as good as smart, but still good. He doesn't have a good outside shot, but doesn't force up bad ones either.

The big issue... he's lost two seasons to injury... one season was getting back off of the ACL and he had a really weird rookie year. So it's still pretty theoretical.

If both guys are healthy I'd have no issue saying Dante is the better gamble no question. I think he is the better offensive player and can be nearly as good as Smart is on defense. More is "known" about Smart. Given the size of the contracts and length I will take Dante over Smart. Both contracts are tradeable unless the guys get hurt.

It's a super tough question... I don't think either team would do a straight swap.
 
Exum didnt play much this year and that is a knock on him. Although having two injuries is not really a big issue. He just happened to have an ACL tear that is common and a freak accident. But lets compare their stats last year.

https://www.basketball-reference.co...mart&y2=2018&player_id2=smartma01&idx=players

Per 100 Exum has better points, assists, FG% and Offensive rating. His defensive rating is slightly worse than Smarts but not by much and Exums net rating is +4 and Smarts is -7. If you go by NBA.com net rating stats Exum blows Smart out of the water and I think those are more accurate numbers.

Exum has a better TS%, FG%, Ast%, off WS and WS/48. He also has a lower TOV%. Plus Exum has better physcial tools, he is taller, faster, and has better length.

https://stats.nba.com/vs/advanced/#!?PlayerID=203957&VsPlayerID=203935
https://stats.nba.com/vs/#!?PlayerI...Type=Regular Season&PerMode=Per100Possessions

Yes there are some stats last year that favor Smart but there are far more than favor Exum. Plus Exum is a year younger and a late developing player. Combined with the fact Exum has not had the chance to play as much.

Exum will have a much better season next year than Smart.

I would be shocked if many people who watched both players chose Smart. Unless they are one of our resident Exum haters.
 
Ron Mexico said:
Exum didnt play much this year and that is a knock on him. Although having two injuries is not really a big issue. He just happened to have an ACL tear that is common and a freak accident. But lets compare their stats last year.

https://www.basketball-reference.co...mart&y2=2018&player_id2=smartma01&idx=players

Per 100 Exum has better points, assists, FG% and Offensive rating. His defensive rating is slightly worse than Smarts but not by much and Exums net rating is +4 and Smarts is -7. If you go by NBA.com net rating stats Exum blows Smart out of the water and I think those are more accurate numbers.

Exum has a better TS%, FG%, Ast%, off WS and WS/48. He also has a lower TOV%. Plus Exum has better physcial tools, he is taller, faster, and has better length.

https://stats.nba.com/vs/advanced/#!?PlayerID=203957&VsPlayerID=203935
https://stats.nba.com/vs/#!?PlayerID=203957&VsPlayerID=203935&Season=2017-18&SeasonType=Regular Season&PerMode=Per100Possessions

Yes there are some stats last year that favor Smart but there are far more than favor Exum. Plus Exum is a year younger and a late developing player. Combined with the fact Exum has not had the chance to play as much.

Exum will have a much better season next year than Smart.

I would be shocked if many people who watched both players chose Smart. Unless they are one of our resident Exum haters.
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Smart is comparable to MCW on offense... and there is enough data to suggest that is who he is and will be. His defense is great.

Exum in a limited sample took 40%+ of his shots at the rim (and finished at a high rate 67.6%) and also has a decent FT attempt rate. He took over 40% of his attempts at the rim 2 years ago as well but didn't convert at a high rate... If he stays healthy he can provide a lot of what Smart does on defense and even if he doesn't shoot the 3 well he will still put a lot of pressure on the defense and be a good offensive player... IF he figures out the 3 point shot at say 35ish% he is a great offensive player.

Biggest ifs are can he stay healthy and can he shoot the 3. Given the price points and what we need I'd rather have Dante. The questions are real... but if he fails on those fronts we are still okay.

In Marcus' case I would be worried that the system is covering up for his deep offensive flaws and that he might be tough to play in another system. 4/52 is much more than 3/29 (which is what Dante really got).
 
Anytime a guy is an "intangibles" guy I always go look at ORTG or DRTG or RPM and see if on/off numbers tell part of the story... with Smart I don't see those #s pointing to an obvious direction other than he really hurts his teams offense.
 
Exum has a higher ceiling for sure but I have to go with Smart. Adding him to this defense would take us to another level immediately as he wins games with his intangibles (def awareness, loose balls, clutch, intensity,etc). Especially in the 4th qtr. Plus, he fits well with Mitchell & Allen.

As long as he stays healthy, I see Exum becoming the better all-around player. But imo Smart's impact in our system would be greater than Exum's can likely ever be. Health, plus the fact that Exum's offensive game/physical tools is such that it is best utilized by having the ball in his hands, which is not how our system operates, make me lean towards the safe gamble.

Especially since we're competitive now & would have him under contract for 4 years. Love Exum's potential tho & am good either way.
 
I wanted Smart bad in their draft. I'll take Exum now though, even though I would've loved Smart on this team. Smart, Gobert, Crowder, etc. makes one hell of a goon squad
 
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