Does Lauri Get Traded?

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Yeah I mean if you have two rookies who are both simultaneously performing like top 30 players you hold on to them. But in the real world they likely are in the G league for the first 30-40 games.

Wait, so why do we have to trade Walker, a 3rd year player, then? Is 3rd year the cut-off for being too good so you have to trade?

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

No it isn't. It's designed to show a player's contributions to that specific team's overall success.

So then I guess using it to show a players contributions to a teams success (also known as helping them win) and trying to apply the actual number it used is flawed... gotcha. My bad.

Assign your own values:

50% (I'm being generous - it's probably a LOT lower): Kessler by himself improving our win total enough to move us from 4th-5th worst to 9th-10th worst
79.8%: The Jazz not jumping up in the lottery
80% (Being generous again, it's probably lower): The Jazz not drafting a player in the 9-10 spot that is even in the same ballpark as the player they would have drafted in the 4th-5th spot

50% x 79.8% x 80% = 31.9%

Yeah.

32% chance you miss out on the most important thing that changes the trajectory of the franchise isn't significant... okay.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

So then I guess using it to show a players contributions to a teams success (also known as helping them win) and trying to apply the actual number it used is flawed... gotcha. My bad.

32% chance you miss out on the most important thing that changes the trajectory of the franchise isn't significant... okay.

You also have to figure in the chance someone 6-10 is better than the guy you would have drafted in the top 5 (shocker, it's very rare the top 5 drafted are the top 5 players, actually think it has never happened in NBA history).

 

[Thee Idiotic Minivan K]

View: https://x.com/TheDunkCentral/status/1809324955387011192

So it’s basically two unprotected picks a protected pick and players not named Podz or and Kuminga? That’s not substantial

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Wait, so why do we have to trade Walker, a 3rd year player, then? Is 3rd year the cut-off for being too good so you have to trade?

Your hypothetical assumes we have two rookies who are better than Walker. Its also beyond unlikely. If that happens you now have 2 of the best rookies drafted in the last idk 3-4 years. So you have landed the Chet and JDubb... now you roll forward.

We don't have to trade Walker or Lauri or Sexton... but if you want to sit here and say you will get top 5 pick positioning while keeping those guys then I'm telling you that you are wrong. Go ahead and keep em all if you don't care about positioning yourself in the draft.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Your hypothetical assumes we have two rookies who are better than Walker. Its also beyond unlikely. If that happens you now have 2 of the best rookies drafted in the last idk 3-4 years. So you have landed the Chet and JDubb... now you roll forward.

We don't have to trade Walker or Lauri or Sexton... but if you want to sit here and say you will get top 5 pick positioning while keeping those guys then I'm telling you that you are wrong. Go ahead and keep em all if you don't care about positioning yourself in the draft.

When did my hypothetical say anything about how good Walker was in that situation?

And yeah, I dont care about pick positioning. The Jazz are in the West. You dont bottom out. It would be beyond stupid unless you are getting compensated in such a way that makes up for it, which they currently arent getting those offers (at least for Lauri) at this point. And yes, you can potentially get a bottom 5 record and still have players perform well.

 

[Hornacekamania]

Bros just sit Lauri for the year. Or send him to Finland for war games for most of the season. We’ll be a fifteen win team without him.


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[mhindy]

I'm happy enough to trade Lauri if the return is great, but otherwise I'm much more interested in subtracting the more replaceable pieces to lose this year.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

You also have to figure in the chance someone 6-10 is better than the guy you would have drafted in the top 5 (shocker, it's very rare the top 5 drafted are the top 5 players, actually think it has never happened in NBA history).

Dumbass... that was one of the 3 things factored in. Jebus.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

When did my hypothetical say anything about how good Walker was in that situation?

If they are 8 WS types they are better than Walker. Go look at the top WS guys last year. You'd also have two of them... so you have enough talent to move forward.

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

Collins / Kessler / Eubanks
Hendricks / Lofton / Filipowski
Lauri / Sensabaugh / Bazley
Clarkson / Williams
Sexton / Keyonte / Collier

That team wins 35 - 37 games if they play their starters regular minutes.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Just an FYI the goal is not to get a top 5 pick.. the goal is to get a star/superstar talent on the roster. If you think Kessler is that then don's sacrifice him to improve the odds you get that guy. If you landed 2 guys of that caliber like in Cy's dumbass hypothetical... then its mission accomplished.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

If they are 8 WS types they are better than Walker. Go look at the top WS guys last year. You'd also have two of them... so you have enough talent to move forward.

Sir you must be in a white heat of anger over this tanking talk because I said together, which would make them roughly 4 a piece which would be what Walker was last year, and we all probably assume Walker will be better than last year...

 

[Elizah Huge]

So it’s basically two unprotected picks a protected pick and players not named Podz or and Kuminga? That’s not substantial

The protected pick is reverse protected 21-30 in 2030.

 

[MT Steve]

So then I guess using it to show a players contributions to a teams success (also known as helping them win) and trying to apply the actual number it used is flawed... gotcha. My bad.

It's extremely flawed when you're trying to use it to predict what their WS will be on a team full of rookies and sophomores, yes.

32% chance you miss out on the most important thing that changes the trajectory of the franchise isn't significant... okay.

I like how 32% is the number I got to by being cartoonishly generous, and you immediately took it as fact when it's probably closer to half-that value with more realistic %'s.. And that was only the odds of the player being drafted with our theoretical 4th-5th pick being a lot better than the guy we draft with a 9th-10th pick.

If you change that to instead be the odds of the Jazz drafting a player with the 4th-5th pick that "changes the trajectory of the franchise", which by that I assume you mean a superstar, then we're really getting small.

20% (Going to be more realistic now): Kessler by himself improving our win total enough to move us from 4th-5th worst to 9th-10th worst
79.8%: The Jazz not jumping up in the lottery
20% (Probably being generous, but let's just boost it for the hell of it): The Jazz not drafting a superstar in the 9th-10th spot, whereas they would have drafted a superstar with the 4th-5th pick.

20% x 79.8% x 20% = 3.2%

Trade Walker for that 3.2% boost.

 

[Mikle12]

Now that Mitchell has resigned with Cleveland I guess our 1st rounders from them will suck

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Sir you must be in a white heat of anger over this tanking talk because I said together, which would make them roughly 4 a piece which would be what Walker was last year, and we all probably assume Walker will be better than last year...

My bad. Yeah I don't know that I would move either of them by the deadline or whatevs... it would be a little late for that anyway if they were really providing that much value on top of what the other guys bring. Dunn was a 2 WS guy and KO a 3 win share guy. So replace 8 win shares for half a season on top of Lauri and others then you'd already be effed in the tank race so best to keep those guys as they are showing more promise.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

It's extremely flawed when you're trying to use it to predict what their WS will be on a team full of rookies and sophomores, yes.

its not... you don't know how good they will or won't be. You don't know how much they will or won't play.

I like how 32% is the number I got to by being cartoonishly generous, and you immediately took it as fact when it's probably closer to half-that value with more realistic %'s.. And that was only the odds of the player being drafted with our theoretical 4th-5th pick being a lot better than the guy we draft with a 9th-10th pick.

If you change that to instead be the odds of the Jazz drafting a player with the 4th-5th pick that "changes the trajectory of the franchise", which by that I assume you mean a superstar, then we're really getting small.

20% (Going to be more realistic now): Kessler by himself improving our win total enough to move us from 4th-5th worst to 9th-10th worst
79.8%: The Jazz not jumping up in the lottery
20% (Probably being generous, but let's just boost it for the hell of it): The Jazz not drafting a superstar in the 9th-10th spot, whereas they would have drafted a superstar with the 4th-5th pick.

20% x 79.8% x 20% = 3.2%

Trade Walker for that 3.2% boost.

Dude that's your fault. You picked the numbers and then are like "hey that's not fair those numbers suck!!!"

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Also the teams we are in the tank race are also playing young players and rookies etc. lol... they just don't have the AS player, the rim protecting center, and the efficient guard scorer.

 

[MT Steve]

its not... you don't know how good they will or won't be. You don't know how much they will or won't play.

If the Jazz are trying to lose, they will be playing plenty. I don't think you need to worry about that. If they're really good to the point where we are 9th-10th worst, then that's fantastic, because it means we nailed those picks.

Dude that's your fault. You picked the numbers and then are like "hey that's not fair those numbers suck!!!"

lol

I literally told you they were extremely generous in that very same post, to show how silly you were being over acting like it was a guaranteed thing, when the reality is it's miniscule. Go apply your own percentages and see what you come up with.