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Game 4 Reaction

I don't know what stock you place in NBA.com's PIE (player impact estimate), but it ranks Rubio as our most impactfull player (rating 15.1), followed by Rudy Gobert at 12.5 and Donovan at 12.1. It goes downhill from there*.

So it would stand to reason that if we lose our most impactful player, it is awful tough to make up for it. And if we lose any of the top 3, winning will be very difficult (Rubio/Gobert/Mitchell). So without Rubio a loss would likely have to be expected. I had hope, but it isn't going to happen.

Either way, very happy with this season. Even if we bring the guys back intact, after an off-season for the coaching staff to work with Mitchell and O'Neal, we will be better than this year. I would bet we are a 56-58 win team as presently constituted when fully healthy. If we can add some talent, some minor upgrades or a solid near-all-star 2-way player, that could push us closer to 60. After all, we finished this season on a 80.6% win pace (29 and 7, counting from, and including, the first Atlanta loss). For a full season that is 66 wins. Take off a few for low points, maybe minor (hopefully) injuries, etc. and 58 wins is not crazy. 60 could be within reach considering off-season development - Mitchell will be an absolute terror after a full off-season with the coaching staff. Add a few minor upgrades, or a big one, and that 66 win mark is not so far out of reach.

Either way, I am loving it. This is the most fun Jazz team to watch we have had in a long time. The most charismatic by far. I can't wait to see what the future holds.

DM = GOAT?

We shall see....

GO JAZZ!!!!






*Of course it really lists Bradley and Burks as most impactful, but that is the garbage time impact I am sure (18 and 17). Oh and Neto at 10.
 
Revolution 9 said:
LoPo - Sounds like we have limited options.

If there is no one in the draft we like when #21 rolls around I hope we pull the trigger on a deal like the Tobias one you mentioned. I honestly can barely recall him, but
his numbers add up. I'll take your word for it.

Demarre Carroll is a fan favorite and put up decent numbers last year. He is always welcome here.

Never been a big Danilo Gallinari fan so I'm not sure I'd get too excited about him here.
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I don't think our FO is enamored with picks. If we were, we wouldn't have traded a 1st for one year of George Hill and another 1st for Rubio. Personally, I think we have the young players we need. We need another proven commodity over a draft pick. Ingles, Gobert, Favors (if he stays), Thabo (if we keep him), and Rubio are all probably at the pinnacle of their careers in terms of years already played and any untapped potential. They are who they are. Maybe Rubio can evolve a little bit more, but he probably is who he is.

So we need to add a proven player now. Carroll seems easy. Gallinari would be simple if we were willing to take the 2 years $20+ per season. Tobias Harris looks possible, but it would probably take more than one 1st. Saric would be cool, but I don't see a reason whatsoever why Philly would move him.
 
I don't know the injury status of X, Ricky, and Favs but this might be the time to dust off Bradley, Niang and Little Stock if some of those guys can't go. They couldn't shoot worse than Crowder, there is not a lot of tape on any of them and we might be able to get lucky and steal a win.
 
I trust "the process", to steal a term and make it more relevant rather than a huge joke. I think the FO will do what they feel will help us the most. The one thing I hope is that we see them shift from building mode to win-now mode. We have the core we have always dreamt of, some of the best role-players out there, all ready to support a tandem of stars. We get even another budding star, or a solid near-all-star 2-way player and we are off to the races. A few tweaks, such as a better backup PG, and one or 2 specialists (3 and D type guys) and we are a 60+ win team for the next 5 years+. Have one or more develop into full-on all-star talent and we are high-60's win team and contending for real. I could see Mitchell being an all-star next year even, although it will probably be his 3rd year in the west stacked with elite guards. If we get one more player on that level and keep the bulk of the core around them we will make some serious noise.

But now is the time. We need to be in win-now mode. Period. No most stock-piling picks. No more hoping for a gem at 20+ in the draft, or miracle draft-day trades that might bear fruit in a few years. We need a proven commodity that can help us right now. Our window is opening, we need to roar through it with all guns blazing.
 
It is time to showcase Alec Burks if anything. If Exum and Rubio don't go, Burks should play 20 minutes unless he is having an absolutely awful night. If he can have a decent game, he might not be seen as a liability in the trade market this summer.

So far, he's averaging 16.5mpg, 38% 3p, 4.5rpg, 3apg and 9.3ppg. That's pretty good.
 
sonofthebigdog said:
I don't know the injury status of X, Ricky, and Favs but this might be the time to dust off Bradley, Niang and Little Stock if some of those guys can't go. They couldn't shoot worse than Crowder, there is not a lot of tape on any of them and we might be able to get lucky and steal a win.
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I think if we get our **** together we can take the next game. I think Houston is very very good at shaking people's **** around, so it will be really hard, but we have to try. Remember that Denver team that knocked off the #1 seed at #8. You can't roll over. You never know what can happen. Although the odds are very much against us advancing at this point it won't do any of our guys any good to roll over and play dead. They need to push on, end on a high note even if it is just a tight win where we really had to make Houston work for it. At least we would go out knowing we left it all on the court. That is the best thing for the progression of our team. Learn to go down fighting, kicking, scratching, determined to make the opponent look like they have been through hell to wrest a win from our cold dead fingers.
 
sonofthebigdog said:
I don't know the injury status of X, Ricky, and Favs but this might be the time to dust off Bradley, Niang and Little Stock if some of those guys can't go. They couldn't shoot worse than Crowder, there is not a lot of tape on any of them and we might be able to get lucky and steal a win.
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Lol.

It is borderline unprofessional that we had Stockton on our list heading into the playoffs. How seriously was the FO really taking this run? We could really use some depth at the 1 and 2 right about now.
 
Et tu Brute said:
I am totally off the Saric wagon. The dude is less athletic than Ingles. He shoots line drives.
I do absolutely love his will and fight for boards etc. And he can bully his way to the rim.
He might be a much better fit here than Philly actually...
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You might be off the wagon but your coat seems to be tangled in the spokes and you are getting dragged down the street.
 
Ricky is important... he keeps the offense going in the right direction... keeps DM in his scoring aggressive role... also a pretty good defender to have with CP. the drop off from him to Neto is substantial.
 
A few different thoughts:

1. Dante will be resigned cheaper than you think. I don't see many teams opening up their wallets for a guy that's spent more time off the court than on it.
2. Favors has probably played his last home game. I think he's going to want a fresh start where he can play the 5. A place like ATL with some cap room makes a ton of sense especially as he could see it as a homecoming.
3. Tony Bradley will probably be on the 15 full-time next year.
4. Does Neto come back? He'll be cheap and has a few years in the system so perhaps.
5. Finding a stretch four in the draft will be tough as we'd have to move into the top ten to have a shot at one or settle for a guy like Omari Spellman.
 
Avery said:
A few different thoughts:

1. Dante will be resigned cheaper than you think. I don't see many teams opening up their wallets for a guy that's spent more time off the court than on it.
2. Favors has probably played his last home game. I think he's going to want a fresh start where he can play the 5. A place like ATL with some cap room makes a ton of sense especially as he could see it as a homecoming.
3. Tony Bradley will probably be on the 15 full-time next year.
4. Does Neto come back? He'll be cheap and has a few years in the system so perhaps.
5. Finding a stretch four in the draft will be tough as we'd have to move into the top ten to have a shot at one or settle for a guy like Omari Spellman.
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These aren’t bad thoughts. The Bradley pick was one I didn’t love and these playoffs have made me question it more. He needs to be a backup big next season at least need the Udoh 5th big minutes.

As much as we need a true knock down stretch four we also need more playmaking from any position. I don’t look to fill needs with the draft so pick the best player possible but with a premium on shooting, defense, and positional versatility.

I love where we are and think we can really add some key pieces to this group plus some growth and development from the young guys. Honestly if DM hits the off the dribble three at about 38% or higher it fixes a lot of our stuff.

We all got excited at 1-1 and some have lost sight at how amazing this season has become.
 
Jazz played with a lot of heart/effort, but the Rockets proved to be too much. My random thoughts...

- Gobert is what he is. He's the NBA's best defensive center, who is also able to catch lobs on the offensive end. I'd be happy if Gobert improved on two things this off season: improving his hands and adding 10-15 lbs in his lower body. These two improvements will improve his ability to box out and prevent offensive rebounds (as well as increase his own offensive rebounds) and limit turnovers that lead to easy transition points. He can work on a few offensive moves the following off season...

- Because Gobert is a massive liability on the offensive end, the Jazz need to sacrifice one of its defensive minded starters for somebody who can consistently provide 15-18 efficient points night in and night out. Somebody who can create his own shot and relieve Donovan... I love defense as much as anyone else, but next year you can't have your wing rotation consisting of one go-to scorer (donovan), and O'Neale, Sefo, and Ingles... that's just not going to cut it in the playoffs. Whether the jazz get that option via FA or the draft... I'm anxious to see what happens.

- Jazz need consistency at the PG position so Mitchell isn't taking on the load. He's not ready yet. Obviously Rubio was hurt, but the jazz need someone else whom they're comfortable with. Neto isn't going to cut it, and Exum seems shakey at best running an offense (he's great at slashing, getting to the rack, etc.).

Either way, the team is young, and there is a lot to be excited for!
 
While we are on topic about the future....

Key pieces definitely returning (7 players average age less than 25):

Mitchell (21) - we've wanted a superstar on the wing for decades and now we can build around him.
Gobert (25) - some might secretly want to move on after Houston, but he's fine if surrounded by the right PF.
Ingles (30) - so important to what we want to do. Maybe we could play him a PF more next season.
O'Neale (24)- what a fantastic find on an even better contract. I look forward to his progression.
Crowder (27) - I'm so glad we have him over worrying about losing or overpaying Hood.
Rubio (27) - we have at least one more year with him as a our floor general.
Bradley (20) - needs more time as the primary Gobert replacement at traditional center.

Restricted free agent we need to keep (2 players added to 7 above making average age still under 25):

Exum (22) - should be the offseason priority. If he just gobbles up all Neto and Burks minutes, we are better off. I absolutely expect him to be that player we saw in the 1st quarter more often than not going forward. $10 per year....

Neto (25) - he knows our system and his number is affordable. He's coming back unless somebody blows us away with an offer. And that ain't happening.

Free agent:

Favors (26) - if he stays for a fair contract, great. If he goes, understandable. If he stays because we give him more than $10 million a season, I have reservations. We won't win a title if we are giving Gobert and Favors 40% of our cap number. I expect him to leave.

Expendable pieces (5 with average age of 29.5 with an average of around 20mpg combined in the playoffs - when they actually played...):

Burks (26) - our off-season wildcard. His $10.8 million expiring ($11.5 when we get to next year's budget) is great trade chip. He's more essential to us as a trade chip than a key piece for next season. Pretty sad but true.

Udoh (30) - great character, but more valuable to us as a non-guaranteed contract especially considering Bradley can get his minutes next year.

Thabo (34) - I would love to see him back, but his injury and upcoming suspension lead me to believe that he better serves us as a $5.25 non-guaranteed trade chip than a $5.25 million player for next season.

Jerekbo (31) - this one is also tough. If his contract was guaranteed, I wouldn't be upset. However, his $4 million non-guaranteed contract combined with Udoh's $3.2 and Thabo's could bring us back a player making $15+.

Stockton (26) - if he stays for $1.5 million qualifying offer because Neto leaves for some unanticipated bigger deal, then okay. If he leaves or we let him go, okay.

So 9 guaranteed guys coming back (DM, Rudy, Royce, Rubio, Joe, X, Jae, Neto and Bradley).
We sadly watch Favors leave.
We have a $10.5 million expiring in Burks
We have an amazing $12.5 million in non-guaranteed contracts (Udoh, Jerekbo and Thabo) as assets.

I am very happy with what that core looks like and with the assets we have going into this offseason.
 
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LoPo said:
While we are on topic about the future....

Key pieces definitely returning (7 players average age less than 25):

Mitchell (21) - we've wanted a superstar on the wing for decades and now we can build around him.
Gobert (25) - some might secretly want to move on after Houston, but he's fine if surrounded by the right PF.
Ingles (30) - so important to what we want to do. Maybe we could play him a PF more next season.
O'Neale (24)- what a fantastic find on an even better contract. I look forward to his progression.
Crowder (27) - I'm so glad we have him over worrying about losing or overpaying Hood.
Rubio (27) - we have at least one more year with him as a our floor general.
Bradley (20) - needs more time as the primary Gobert replacement at traditional center.

Restricted free agent we need to keep (2 players added to 7 above making average age still under 25):

Exum (22) - should be the offseason priority. If he just gobbles up all Neto and Burks minutes, we are better off. I absolutely expect him to be that player we saw in the 1st quarter more often than not going forward. $10 per year....

Neto (25) - he knows our system and his number is affordable. He's coming back unless somebody blows us away with an offer. And that ain't happening.

Free agent:

Favors (26) - if he stays for a fair contract, great. If he goes, understandable. If he stays because we give him more than $10 million a season, I have reservations. We won't win a title if we are giving Gobert and Favors 40% of our cap number. I expect him to leave.

Expendable pieces (5 with average age of 29.5 with an average of around 20mpg combined in the playoffs - when they actually played...):

Burks (26) - our off-season wildcard. His $10.8 million expiring ($11.5 when we get to next year's budget) is great trade chip. He's more essential to us as a trade chip than a key piece for next season. Pretty sad but true.

Udoh (30) - great character, but more valuable to us as a non-guaranteed contract especially considering Bradley can get his minutes next year.

Thabo (34) - I would love to see him back, but his injury and upcoming suspension lead me to believe that he better serves us as a $5.25 non-guaranteed trade chip than a $5.25 million player for next season.

Jerekbo (31) - this one is also tough. If his contract was guaranteed, I wouldn't be upset. However, his $4 million non-guaranteed contract combined with Udoh's $3.2 and Thabo's could bring us back a player making $15+.

Stockton (26) - if he stays for $1.5 million qualifying offer because Neto leaves for some unanticipated bigger deal, then okay. If he leaves or we let him go, okay.

So 9 guaranteed guys coming back (DM, Rudy, Royce, Rubio, Joe, X, Jae, Neto and Bradley).
We sadly watch Favors leave.
We have a $10.5 million expiring in Burks
We have an amazing $12.5 million in non-guaranteed contracts (Udoh, Jerekbo and Thabo) as assets.

I am very happy with what that core looks like and with the assets we have going into this offseason.
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Couple thoughts:

1. Exum is not getting $10 mil per. Not from us, not from any team, especially in this cash strapped year.
2. Agree with Neto coming back - he's cheap and that's really all that matters.
3. I'd move Burks as an expiring for a stretch four on a good contract, but we would probably need to take on some bad salary as part of a deal. None of the other expendable pieces really matter to me if they come back; I'd rather deal them for some more youth if anything.
4. I think DL will position this franchise to be a true elite contender maybe 2-3 years down the road. I know that sounds weird, but our core will be in their prime at that point while the GSW/HOU of the world will look kind of like the Cavs right now consisting of 30 year-olds with declining games.
 
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