Some historical context on authoritarians and official statistics.
From Mussolini to Trump, false economic data gives the illusion of competence
lucid.substack.com
Classic Dictatorships Cook the Books
In long-established regimes, the population learns to doubt the numbers the government releases, which contrast so sharply with the realities of their lives. Communist states famously advertised their revolutionary gains even in the midst of famines or other mass hardship their own policies created.
Soviet dictator Joseph Stalin
claimed the government was “dizzy with success” during a farm collectivization (part of his Five-Year Plan) that claimed the lives of millions from hunger. He later
executed statisticians who published damaging data: in 1937 the Sorbonne-trained statistician Olimpiy Kvitkin was murdered by firing squad for releasing a census that showed a smaller population Stalin had announced three years earlier.
Benito Mussolini had pioneered the politicization of economic research. In 1926, one year after he declared dictatorship, he created a Central Institute of Statistics (ISTAT) with the purpose of making
data into "an instrument of government action."
By 1931, Fascist statistics communicated "not so much the actual state of things as what the regime would like the people to believe,” as the anti-Fascist exile Gaetano Salvemini
wrote in a detailed takedown of the regime’s supposed victory in the Battle for Wheat. Salvemini noted that statistics on this subject and others “have since 1925 been systematically tampered with for the glorification of the dictatorship”…..
…..In today’s age of electoral autocracies, the political stakes of
convincing people that the leader is competent are higher. Since many people vote for strongmen who claim they will save the economy –by lowering the price of groceries or reducing inflation—leaders have more incentive to manipulate economic data to produce a deceptively rosy picture of the country….
…..Trump, a master propagandist, knows how important it is to get ahead of a downturn and preserve the idea that he is “Making America Great Again.” Real data has been
disappearing, and altered data proliferating, since the start of his second presidency.
Yet it will be hard for Trump to deny the economic harm he and DOGE are causing to the construction,
tourism, hospitality, medical research, and myriad other industries with his draconian border controls, mass deportations, tariffs, and other measures.
Add in further likely hits to the economy from disease outbreaks, absence of disaster relief, and more, and it makes sense that Trump is acting
now to have the right people in place to keep up the illusion that he is good for the country.
It is also in keeping with authoritarian tradition that Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, when asked about the impact of DOGE funding cuts on economic growth, hinted that his agency
might decide to change how economic growth is calculated. This “solution” cooked up in Washington DC is worthy of Ankara or Beijing.
