What's new

If the Jazz are better than expected it's because...

Pick the most likely reason for the Jazz to crush their win total expectation.

  • Lauri has his best season in a Jazz Uniform

    Votes: 4 6.1%
  • Our Center rotation of Kessler/Nurkic is very good

    Votes: 2 3.0%
  • Will Hardy is coach of the year

    Votes: 3 4.5%
  • Ace and or WCJ are much better than typical rookies

    Votes: 29 43.9%
  • Keyonte and or Collier have a glow up

    Votes: 10 15.2%
  • Brice and or Cody have a glow up

    Votes: 2 3.0%
  • Hendricks and or Flip have a glow up

    Votes: 11 16.7%
  • Niang and or Anderson are the ultimate glue guys

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Front Office Reasons

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Other (post comment)

    Votes: 5 7.6%

  • Total voters
    66
Just throwing this thought/question out there:

- What is the probability that Keyonte is our leader in ppg this year?

If he's getting big minutes and touches as the starting lead guard, he can average close to 20 ppg, but he won't score more than Lauri. Scoring leaders will probably be:
1) Lauri
2) Keyonte
3) Brice / Ace
 
Well, I’d say we’re going to win more than the O/U suggests, but my answer to this is different. I’m a strong believer that it’s depth that wins in the regular season. So if we win more than expected (or a lot more than O/U) it’s because we have lots of small improvements across the roster vs one guy propelling us there. Even if Key, for example, had a breakout season we could still suck badly if no one else improves and/or we give a lot of minutes to negative players. But having a roster with a lot of real players on it can win some games. There are a lot of guys just on the edge of being solid rotations guys imo. Key, Brice, Flip etc. You add those guys onto to the existing vets and you might have a decent headcount for real NBA players. To be a very bad team like we were last year you need lots of minutes from the worst guys in the league.

It’s happening, we’re kinda deep.
 
The Jazz have a unique roster with a ton of size and a ton of shooting. I think that uniqueness might make the Jazz a tough play for some teams.

Teams who will be better against us are the ones who can really pressure our ball-handlers, something the Clippers had negative ability to do.
 
I would put the most likely/most impactful options in this order:

- Keyonte having a 3rd year jump and making our guard rotation much improved
- 48 minutes of NBA level center rotation could have a huge impact on our defense.
- Lauri having an all star year and just having the type of gravity that makes everyone better for 70+ games. We strategically lost a lot of games against tanking teams last year by sitting Lauri. If he is playing against all of our tanking competition we could have more wins.
- I don't think it's extremely likely, but if Ace has the type of on/off impact he did at Rutgers, we could be much better than expected.
- Other - we get lucky/unlucky with playing opposing teams on off nights/with injuries. Last year we lost a crazy amount of games at home, and maybe we get our home court advantage back.

As others have stated, we would need a combination of a lot of things to win too many games. It will be very interesting if we get to March and we are at risk of losing our pick.
This whole post is basically what happened last night. Let’s see if it’s a trend or if it was an anomaly.
 
Back
Top