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Interesting Al Jefferson Statistic

the chief objective of most big men's post moves are to score AND draw fouls. al's objective when he's faking, fading and hooking is to AVOID contact. that's just his style, he doesnt' go up the chest of the defender, he's always leaning and fading away from bodies.
 
I just have to say, I've again really tried to reset where I'm at with Al. Or at least give him a fair shake since resetting is basically a practical impossibility. He's been better this year in the half court. His passing has improved. Whether it's the play-calling or it's him, he ends up in better spots on the court when an actual set is happening. He looks a lot more sure of himself. I'm happy about that.

But, he still makes 0 impact in transition going both ways, he still doesn't get to the line to almost a shocking degree, and he might be an even worse defender than last year. He's also just soft.

I don't know how to feel about him. I know what my gut says. And I know what most of my brain says, but at the same time, he does some things offensively quite well and protects the ball. He has some huge weaknesses, sure, but does that overpower the things he does well? I'm not sure. But the Jazz are in a situation where I really think he is just becoming more and more expendable, even as he has improved in some important ways.

He's a great dude, nobody doubts that. I wouldn't be heartbroken if he somehow ends up staying, but I wouldn't prefer it. While I think that he will be sorely missed by this team, I think it will be more for non-basketball reasons that basketball ones. I do think he can finally help a good team be better, but I don't know that it's this team when it's all said and done.
 
i think i'm right where you are, numby. it's hard to rag on a guy who cares so much and brings a *certain* kind of leadership to the team. that said, he has so many liabilities that it's hard to get excited about any future that relies on him.

PROs:
- top 10 in PER
- solid rebounder
- ridiculously low TO rate for a guy that uses as many possessions as he does
- cares about winning

CONS:
- passing hasn't really improved that much. his assist percentage is still only 9.9%, or .9% higher than his final minny season.
- subpar post defense and even worse help defense
- scoring numbers are deceiving as he's fairly inefficient: 19.6 points on 17.4 shots
- still has problems reading defenses
 
I dont really understand the turnover debate, its kind of hard to get turnovers when your not passing very much. And alot of his missed shots basically are turnovers. I just want a center that shoots WELL OVER 50 %. It seemed like Al tried on the boards last night and was a little better on defense but the guy is so pathetic on defense 99% of the time. Fact of the matter is we will never be nothing better than an average team with Al.
 
I definitely have to give Al big props for his rebounding last game; unless I don't know how to work this search, it's the most rebounds in a game by any Jazzman since 1985: https://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pgl_finder.cgi?request=1&player=&match=game&year_min=&year_max=&age_min=0&age_max=99&team_id=UTA&opp_id=&is_playoffs=N&game_num_type=team&game_num_min=&game_num_max=&game_month=&game_location=&game_result=&is_starter=&is_active=&is_hof=&pos_is_g=Y&pos_is_gf=Y&pos_is_f=Y&pos_is_fg=Y&pos_is_fc=Y&pos_is_c=Y&pos_is_cf=Y&c1stat=trb&c1comp=gt&c1val=20&c2stat=&c2comp=gt&c2val=&c3stat=&c3comp=gt&c3val=&c4stat=&c4comp=gt&c4val=&order_by=trb.

Al is moderately efficient on offense (particularly for someone who can get their own shot) in that he has a relatively high points/possession rating (.99; 59th in the NBA). He does this through not turning the ball over. Even though he does not have as high a shooting percentage he gets more shots off rather than handing the ball to the other team. He does not, however, get the other team's players in foul trouble. I wish Favors and particularly Kanter would learn how to keep the ball out of reach like Big All does. Having said that, I would like to trade Al.
 
vslice02 said:
Championship-caliber basketball teams need a go-to scorer who can get to the FT line in a must-score situation. Go back and look at NBA champions in the past 20 years, and (other than the '04 Pistons which was an anomally in many respects) they all had a go-to scorer who shot a minimum of 7 FT's per game.

By getting to the FT line, you're not only putting pressure on the refs (example: in OT Devin Harris didn't get the foul call when he was hacked on his 3pt but he got the call when he drove to the rim and was hacked by Dirk) but you're putting pressure on the defense.

Even if you're not an elite player, good things often happen when you attack the rim in must-score situations because it forces the defense to collapse, rotate, and worst-case frees a teammate up on the offensive glass. That's not part of Al's game, and it's the primary reason I don't envision him being the best player on a highly successful basketball team.
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It sucks to because Al could be pretty special. If you combined his skills with Dwight Howard, he would be unstoppable. If Al only would play with a high motor, chasing offensive rebounds , fast breaks, pick and rolls, ect. He would be pretty darn good. His little hook push shot is pretty cool because he can almost always get a clean shot off. And it's high percentage too. But without playing a complete game he can't be on our team.
 
But if Jazz make playoffs will that get the Jefferson can't get a team to the playoffs label off him?
 
theNBAnerd said:
the chief objective of most big men's post moves are to score AND draw fouls. al's objective when he's faking, fading and hooking is to AVOID contact. that's just his style, he doesnt' go up the chest of the defender, he's always leaning and fading away from bodies.
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It's very insightful to understand that Al's game is built to avoid injury. It's why he doesn't often attack the rim and dunk, and it is a calculated methodical choice he has made. It even comes out in interviews sometimes.

I really like Al, but I don't expect him to be highly efficient. He is a reliable scorer that has been crucial while others on the team have been finding their offensive game. I have been pleasantly surprised that he has been able to really improve his passing game. Love the guy for who he is. Don't expect him to become something he is not.
 
vegas said:
It's very insightful to understand that Al's game is built to avoid injury. It's why he doesn't often attack the rim and dunk, and it is a calculated methodical choice he has made. It even comes out in interviews sometimes.

I really like Al, but I don't expect him to be highly efficient. He is a reliable scorer that has been crucial while others on the team have been finding their offensive game. I have been pleasantly surprised that he has been able to really improve his passing game. Love the guy for who he is. Don't expect him to become something he is not.
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Big AL is paid like a player that should be someone who can take you to the playoffs. A centerpiece. (pardon the pun) So it is the expectations that we are trying to understand.
 
Jefferson has too many holes in his game to be a) paid as much as his stats demand, b) the number one option on a top tier team, c) the go to guy down the stretch.

Jazz win more when he's generally the second option or fail safe of the Jazz' offense. Jefferson's ability to get the line (and thus lower TS%) is somewhat counteracted by his low TO%. Jefferson gets one or two extra shots a game because he doesn't turn it over compared to most other players.

Saying he doesn't pass is ignorant. 55 players listed as center qualify in the assist rate category (6+ MPG). Jefferson is 25th. Dwight Howard's assist rate is lower, and his turnover rate is much, much, much higher. Jefferson passes pretty much like the average center, but never turns it over. More shots are taken as a result.

The biggest flaws for Jefferson for me is the opponent's Oreb rate (Jefferson's individual defensive rate is high, but the team's rate is low), help defense inadequacy, and single possession necessity (because of low TS%). He is also fairly bad transitionally, which is indeed a concern.
 
Also, the difficulty in this whole thing is that game against Dallas, big Al got so many rebs (even without the OT's) becuase he was doing things that many of us (myself included) have griped about before - not fighting for or no box out to get rebs. It was evident to me his commitment to rebounding was different. Additionally, Big Al last night, I witnessed Big Al doing well on the Pick and Roll a couple of times (don't know that i'd ever seen him committed to that either.)

Brian T Smith pointed out today on morning radio here in SLC that Big Al has been out of the playoffs by about all-star break about every year of his career. At that point it is perfectly logical that he'd focus on being a black hole. Perfectly logical that he'd be a 'soft' player (for the injury reason noted above). The rule is "average 20/10 and get $14m/yr" What would you do if you were him as a Timberwoof? I'd probably do the same.

Now, that might explain who he is,but the first question is whether he can change. We've seen his passing out of doubles improve. Someone posted that his assist percentage is not much better. Well, merely passing out of double team would not necessarily (doubtfully) show up in that assist stat. It would show up in the "pass before the assist" stat if there was such a thing.

The next question, if you think he can change is do you bet on that and keep him? (Or do you bet on Favors or Kanter being BETTER) Can you teach this old (relatively) dog new tricks?
 
Darkwing Duck said:
The biggest flaws for Jefferson for me is the opponent's Oreb rate (Jefferson's individual defensive rate is high, but the team's rate is low), help defense inadequacy, and single possession necessity (because of low TS%). He is also fairly bad transitionally, which is indeed a concern.
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I don't know his actual Oreb#, but i do see his unwillingess to boxout, hussle. However, I thought i witnessed a willingness last night; a real commitment to overcome this. He was a Reb monster and it was simply a choice to be the man. The Jazz had to win that "playoff" game, and Al stepped up.
 
harcher, it was me on the assist rate comment... and my point is simply that, while there was some anecdotal evident he was "getting it" as far as passing out of the trap, he wasn't doing it enough for it to make a big difference statistically.

also, he needs to get better at passing BEFORE he's doubled. that's what i mean when i say he doesn't "read the D". why don't opposing guards come poke at the ball from the blind side when duncan or nowitzki has it in the low post or mid post? because those guys can see it coming and can get rid of the ball BEFORE they're under pressure, usually resulting in a wide open layup or a wide open jumper, but at the very least they come up with the hockey assist you're mentioning. al doesn't do that, or doesn't do it enough at any rate.
 
Regarding Al's passing...
Al's progressed from being a complete blackhole last year (if he was doubled he would hold the ball and never pass out of it) to a semi-consistent 1-dimensional lowpost passer this season, with "1-dimensional" meaning that if the opposition doubles from the top, Al can recognize it and make the basic "first pass" to the open player (often to Harris as opponents usually leave him to double down on the block). The problem is when teams come from the weakside - Al lacks some combination of anticipation, vision, and passing ability to find the open man crosscourt. Additionally, when defenses double down from the top but also rotate quickly (example: over to Harris) from the weakside, Al can't find the open man and it's panic/hold the ball time.

I'm not going to say Al will never figure that part out, and the fact that he's atleast shown some improvement since he's arrived is encouraging...but big picture his interior defense is a much bigger concern for me than his lowpost passing or FT rate.
 
YB85 said:
While his rebounding was huge last night, and that desperation 20 footer was fantastic, there is another stat that jumped out at me: Zero. As in the number of free throws he attempted in his 54 minutes on the court. The only other Jazz player who played but did not attempt a FT was Blake Ahern. Taking it a step further, there is another interesting stat: Zero. That's the number of free throws he has attempted in the Jazz' two multi-OT games in which he has played (105 minutes). For all his post moves, he needs to understand that drawing fouls and getting to the line is a big part of winning basketball and it's not always about getting the shot off. He should study the film of Nowitzki last night and see that many times he wasn't necessarily trying to get a basket as much as trying to draw the foul and get to the line. A big man getting that much playing time should be getting more than 3 FTA's per game.
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Did you watch the game last night? It was probably one of the strangest and worst reffed games I've ever seen. It's not his fault those clowns didn't send him to the line.
 
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