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Jazz Offseason Plan

Handlogten's Heros said:
I just don’t think Donovan will stay for 5-6 more years. We’d need something more than Kyle Kuzma to convince him to stay here. We needed to hit on a pick closer to his draft. The half way builds we have done have led us to have guys who are good now but not completely on the same timeline. To get young now we have to take like two huge steps back… if it fails DM wants out sooner than later.

The goal is not to retain Donovan forever and be the Blazers. The goal is to win a title. The window is cracked open… we need to be opportunistic but if it doesn’t work in the next couple years you trade everything and go full OKC. Hopefully Ryan has the stones for it because the millers never did.

There’s a chance you land some good young player or get a little younger when you trade of Bojan… maybe some team is desperate to make the playoffs and overpays in a trade for Rudy next offseason. Short of hitting a grand slam I just don’t see a move that puts a player good enough to convince him this is the place.

In this NBA the guys go where they want to… if they are going to willfully choose to be here then the case has to be overwhelming. Trading for some of those younger meddling dudes isn’t gonna help… if it makes us worse the next couple years it will actually hurt our case quite a bit. We have to be all in and hope for the best… we have to know when to walk away too… cue the Kenny Rogers music!
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We need youth. It's simple. We need more energy. Our usual operation is to get two stars and add some old vets to the equation. It has never worked. We are afraid of taking a chance on a young guy instead deferring to the old hat.

If we 100% knew we were a favorite this year, we should run it back. I just don't believe that anymore. With our assets, we can't improve our defensive capabilities enough to bridge the gap between us and true contenders.

I think it's a mistake to think Donovan’s entire Jazz career has to be linked to Rudy. There is nothing that Rudy has shown me that he is destined for playoff dominance. He's not gonna have that Giannis moment dominating his way to a title for us.

Don isn't even in his prime. Age wise, we have to start thinking next 5-8 years instead of just next 2-3 max. We can have both.

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Jingled said:
Not sure what to believe...Locke's saying we're all in for the next 3 years and Tony Jones makes it sound like we're all in next year and if we don't make it to the finals much of the roster is going to be gone and we could take a step back. I'm not sure how long Smith is going to be willing to pay the tax, especially the repeater tax.
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I feel like since Smith bought the teams “sources” have gotten even harder to come by for local media. Yeah Locke keeps saying this roster as constructed has a 3 year window, and Tony keeps saying it has a 1 year win down before major changes are made. I tend to agree with Tony. Smiths tax bill will be a $70+ million check before the season starts and will have to be paid in full. Next season if we are still in the tax he’d have to pay the repeater tax which adds another dollar per dollar you’re over the tax line. Smith would end up cutting like a $100 million dollar check next season. I think Tony will end up being right, if the team under-performs or gets anything but a finals appearance this season, major changes are coming. There’s no way Smith is going to pay an average of $100 million a year just in a tax bill over the next 3.
 
LoPo said:
We need youth. It's simple. We need more energy. Our usual operation is to get two stars and add some old vets to the equation. It has never worked. We are afraid of taking a chance on a young guy instead deferring to the old hat.

If we 100% knew we were a favorite this year, we should run it back. I just don't believe that anymore. With our assets, we can't improve our defensive capabilities enough to bridge the gap between us and true contenders.

I think it's a mistake to think Donovan’s entire Jazz career has to be linked to Rudy. There is nothing that Rudy has shown me that he is destined for playoff dominance. He's not gonna have that Giannis moment dominating his way to a title for us.

Don isn't even in his prime. Age wise, we have to start thinking next 5-8 years instead of just next 2-3 max. We can have both.

Sent from my SM-A516U using JazzFanz mobile app
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Agreed about Rudy. To pretend like us losing him is losing any hope at a ring is silly too. Centers basically aren’t important. Here are the starting centers on our recent championship teams.

*Brooke Lopez
*Javale McGee (Davis played more than him but is an infinitely superior player to Rudy)
*(Not close to prime) Marc Gasol
*Zaza Pachulia (Looney, McGee, Draymond as well)

None of these guys were close to great. They were capable of solid defense and actually all had very strong defensive players at the 4 (Giannis, Lebron, Kawhi/Siakam, Draymond) as well as most other positions.

I know it’s sacrilege but if we did Rudy for Rozier, Bridges, Washington, their 1st, a 2023 1st and something else, I think we make out in the long run. We save a **** load of money the next two years, get young talent in those three, get more assets and young talent with their 1sts, and can then do something like Bogey for whoever. Become just way more well-rounded.

That or Don needs to stay healthy and start playing legitimate high end defense and we hope Bogey and Co do too.


I
 
LoPo said:
We need youth. It's simple. We need more energy. Our usual operation is to get two stars and add some old vets to the equation. It has never worked. We are afraid of taking a chance on a young guy instead deferring to the old hat.

If we 100% knew we were a favorite this year, we should run it back. I just don't believe that anymore. With our assets, we can't improve our defensive capabilities enough to bridge the gap between us and true contenders.

I think it's a mistake to think Donovan’s entire Jazz career has to be linked to Rudy. There is nothing that Rudy has shown me that he is destined for playoff dominance. He's not gonna have that Giannis moment dominating his way to a title for us.

Don isn't even in his prime. Age wise, we have to start thinking next 5-8 years instead of just next 2-3 max. We can have both.

Sent from my SM-A516U using JazzFanz mobile app
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The youth thing is probably less true than some of us think. Locke made a good point in, who is young on the Bucks? Giannis is 26, but the rest of that roster is pretty old. Mainly because stars and veteran, not youth, wins in the postseason for the most part. Most rosters trying to contend are actually rarely young, or getting any meaningful play from young guys when it matters. Stars and vets win.
 
oneye said:
The youth thing is probably less true than some of us think. Locke made a good point in, who is young on the Bucks? Giannis is 26, but the rest of that roster is pretty old. Mainly because stars and veteran, not youth, wins in the postseason for the most part. Most rosters trying to contend are actually rarely young, or getting any meaningful play from young guys when it matters. Stars and vets win.
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The Bucks are an older team true, but everybody is a defender. The entire group that played meaningful minutes defended well.

Portis, Pat C, and Giannis aren't old, but yes, they are an older lineup. I just think the focus is different.

We have two defenders on the entire roster with Royce and Rudy. That's crazy.

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LoPo said:
We need youth. It's simple. We need more energy. Our usual operation is to get two stars and add some old vets to the equation. It has never worked. We are afraid of taking a chance on a young guy instead deferring to the old hat.

If we 100% knew we were a favorite this year, we should run it back. I just don't believe that anymore. With our assets, we can't improve our defensive capabilities enough to bridge the gap between us and true contenders.

I think it's a mistake to think Donovan’s entire Jazz career has to be linked to Rudy. There is nothing that Rudy has shown me that he is destined for playoff dominance. He's not gonna have that Giannis moment dominating his way to a title for us.

Don isn't even in his prime. Age wise, we have to start thinking next 5-8 years instead of just next 2-3 max. We can have both.

Sent from my SM-A516U using JazzFanz mobile app
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It isn’t simple at all. Saying we need youth is great that is simple… getting that youth is hard AF… literally the hardest thing to do is find young talent. It’s like saying it’s simple to solve money problems… just need a billion dollars. Great now how do we get it.

Only way for us to do it is get monumentally lucky with #30… or sell off our win now parts for guys that may be good in a year or two. We won’t get blue chip young talent with Bogey or Joe or Mike. Our best option is to play it out with the hand we’ve been dealt… hope you nail a first or second rounder but it’s likely it doesn’t work… unless you have THE dominant guy in the league most things are destined for failure. In three years if we don’t have a lot of hope… be honest with ourselves and tear it down. Donovan is already grumpy and we have the best record in the league… what happens when we trade our good players for mediocre ones that are younger and we get the 8 seed? He asks out next year instead of three years from now.

If a great deal comes up for Rudy this season or next offseason that allows you to pair Donovan with a great talent that is closer to his age then go for it. As of right now… the window is 2-3 years and then reset.
 
Wes Mantooth said:
Agreed about Rudy. To pretend like us losing him is losing any hope at a ring is silly too. Centers basically aren’t important. Here are the starting centers on our recent championship teams.

*Brooke Lopez
*Javale McGee (Davis played more than him but is an infinitely superior player to Rudy)
*(Not close to prime) Marc Gasol
*Zaza Pachulia (Looney, McGee, Draymond as well)

None of these guys were close to great. They were capable of solid defense and actually all had very strong defensive players at the 4 (Giannis, Lebron, Kawhi/Siakam, Draymond) as well as most other positions.

I know it’s sacrilege but if we did Rudy for Rozier, Bridges, Washington, their 1st, a 2023 1st and something else, I think we make out in the long run. We save a **** load of money the next two years, get young talent in those three, get more assets and young talent with their 1sts, and can then do something like Bogey for whoever. Become just way more well-rounded.

That or Don needs to stay healthy and start playing legitimate high end defense and we hope Bogey and Co do too.


I
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If Conley bails, I'm advocating for something like this.

If Joe retires next summer, we have max space to make a run at a different vision.

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Handlogten's Heros said:
It isn’t simple at all. Saying we need youth is great that is simple… getting that youth is hard AF… literally the hardest thing to do is find young talent. It’s like saying it’s simple to solve money problems… just need a billion dollars. Great now how do we get it.

Only way for us to do it is get monumentally lucky with #30… or sell off our win now parts for guys that may be good in a year or two. We won’t get blue chip young talent with Bogey or Joe or Mike. Our best option is to play it out with the hand we’ve been dealt… hope you nail a first or second rounder but it’s likely it doesn’t work… unless you have THE dominant guy in the league most things are destined for failure. In three years if we don’t have a lot of hope… be honest with ourselves and tear it down. Donovan is already grumpy and we have the best record in the league… what happens when we trade our good players for mediocre ones that are younger and we get the 8 seed? He asks out next year instead of three years from now.

If a great deal comes up for Rudy this season or next offseason that allows you to pair Donovan with a great talent that is closer to his age then go for it. As of right now… the window is 2-3 years and then reset.
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I understand

I just think we need to turn Bojan into perimeter defense or youthful offense or both.

And I don't want to sign another ancient player with valuable exceptions. Ed Davis, Jeff Green, and Derrick Favors should have been focused on more youth.

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Here’s my beef on the “move to youth” or “get someone on Donovan’s timeline” thoughts. Right now over the next couple years, maybe we have like a 20% chance to win a title. Maybe one would argue that’s too high, but ask yourself what kind of title percentage team you’d like. Now ask yourself what the odds are of getting that team by moving to prospects rather than win-now players. We’ve done the prospects thing for a long, long time. We’ve gotten incredibly lucky with two of our prospects, and they’re current in their prime. We were the first seed. Yeah, we have a lot of weaknesses and didn’t have a good playoff showing. 6 weeks ago the Bucks were huge chokers and failures and needed to trade Giannis and he should have never re-signed. Narratives change fast and they change on the smallest of sample sizes. So we significantly retool and what do we get our title percentage up to over a few years? 25% 30%? Now, more importantly, what are the odds of landing that team? You probably have a 25-35% (generous) chance of being able to build a team that has maybe a 5-10% better chance of going all the way than presently constituted. To me that’s nonsense. Maybe you catch lightening in a bottle, but more likely you **** this up and ruin our best chance in over two decades.

tl;dr you take a large risk for a potential marginal benefit.
 
infection said:
Here’s my beef on the “move to youth” or “get someone on Donovan’s timeline” thoughts. Right now over the next couple years, maybe we have like a 20% chance to win a title. Maybe one would argue that’s too high, but ask yourself what kind of title percentage team you’d like. Now ask yourself what the odds are of getting that team by moving to prospects rather than win-now players. We’ve done the prospects thing for a long, long time. We’ve gotten incredibly lucky with two of our prospects, and they’re current in their prime. We were the first seed. Yeah, we have a lot of weaknesses and didn’t have a good playoff showing. 6 weeks ago the Bucks were huge chokers and failures and needed to trade Giannis and he should have never re-signed. Narratives change fast and they change on the smallest of sample sizes. So we significantly retool and what do we get our title percentage up to over a few years? 25% 30%? Now, more importantly, what are the odds of landing that team? You probably have a 25-35% (generous) chance of being able to build a team that has maybe a 5-10% better chance of going all the way than presently constituted. To me that’s nonsense. Maybe you catch lightening in a bottle, but more likely you **** this up and ruin our best chance in over two decades.
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Agreed

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infection said:
Here’s my beef on the “move to youth” or “get someone on Donovan’s timeline” thoughts. Right now over the next couple years, maybe we have like a 20% chance to win a title. Maybe one would argue that’s too high, but ask yourself what kind of title percentage team you’d like. Now ask yourself what the odds are of getting that team by moving to prospects rather than win-now players. We’ve done the prospects thing for a long, long time. We’ve gotten incredibly lucky with two of our prospects, and they’re current in their prime. We were the first seed. Yeah, we have a lot of weaknesses and didn’t have a good playoff showing. 6 weeks ago the Bucks were huge chokers and failures and needed to trade Giannis and he should have never re-signed. Narratives change fast and they change on the smallest of sample sizes. So we significantly retool and what do we get our title percentage up to over a few years? 25% 30%? Now, more importantly, what are the odds of landing that team? You probably have a 25-35% (generous) chance of being able to build a team that has maybe a 5-10% better chance of going all the way than presently constituted. To me that’s nonsense. Maybe you catch lightening in a bottle, but more likely you **** this up and ruin our best chance in over two decades.
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I'm just saying to trade Bojan and sign more guys like Bobby Portis than guys like Ed Davis or Favors.

This is all if Conley returns. Largely run it back but add more youth and potential rather than guys who we hope recreate their old glory days.

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Any chance Charlotte would trade us Rozier for Bojan and Favors?

They played Biyombo 20mpg and Zeller 21mpg last year. We played Favors 15 mpg. Favors was clearly the better player than Biyombo who had a $3.5 million contract. Zellar's stats were slightly better than Favors, but he was making $15 per year.

Charlotte has the cap space to take Bojan and Favors for Rozier. They already have PG options (Ball and Graham) but lack good players at PF and C.

If Rozier wasn't expiring, they probably don't do this deal, but would it make sense if they did?





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jom2003 said:
this sounds like the type of move Danny Ainge would do. not sure about JZ, aka DL's sidekick.

But i like the idea of it. Get John Collins then immediately go grab Malik Monk as JC's replacement. Same exact type of heat check player who can get you a bunch of buckets off the bench. Then all of a sudden we have a young team again structured to compete for the next three or four years instead of becoming finished business in two.
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Here here. I wanna see John Collins in a Jazz uni


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The best chance to win was last year with so many things stacking in our favor. We will never have that chance again. Two max players at the cost of one, pandemic, injuries around the league....it's never happening again. You could say the injury bug ended up biting us too, but we clearly had enough talent to advance and just failed to perform.

I would agree that we have a small 2-3 year window here before Donovan demands out. I don't think we need to hang onto everything we have to maximize year one of this window....but all signs point to that. Personally, I wouldn't look for a youth movement, but I do think we have so overvalued vets that we could/should try to move on from for younger, undervalued players.
 
oneye said:
The youth thing is probably less true than some of us think. Locke made a good point in, who is young on the Bucks? Giannis is 26, but the rest of that roster is pretty old. Mainly because stars and veteran, not youth, wins in the postseason for the most part. Most rosters trying to contend are actually rarely young, or getting any meaningful play from young guys when it matters. Stars and vets win.
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Bucks was clearly in a win now mode and I'm sure none of bucks fans care about what happen next season since they've already won it. Same as the 2019 Raptors.

The issue with the Jazz is that they forced themselves into a win now mode after the Conley trade then couldn't get out of the second round. So they now have to plan for the future with Conley's deal expiring in a few days.
 
jom2003 said:
Bucks was clearly in a win now mode and I'm sure none of bucks fans care about what happen next season since they've already won it. Same as the 2019 Raptors.

The issue with the Jazz is that they forced themselves into a win now mode after the Conley trade then couldn't get out of the second round. So they now have to plan for the future with Conley's deal expiring in a few days.
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I think Mike re-signs from most of what national media is saying. Marc Stein reported yesterday that he’s heard nothing in regards to Mike leaving Utah. But I have seen a $25 million a year figure on Mike and if that’s the case that better be 2 years with a TEAM option on the 3rd, to where you can run for a title next season, and trade him as an expiring next summer. I think Mike does have at least a couple really good years in him. He was actually really good aside from that stupid hamstring, and someone like CP3 had hamstring problems as well but finally remained healthy at age 36. It’s all such fluke weird ****. $25 million on a 3 year contract under player control would make me very uncomfortable though. If you could get him to do it I’d love like 1 and 1. With a team option. Then $25 million wouldn’t bother me at all.
 
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