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Jazz Playoff Watch

theNBAnerd said:
maybe or maybe not, but that's beside the point since the jazz will probably be picking in a range where they're unlikely to find a franchise-changin player at any position. having a young core that has some playoff experience is better than having an even younger core with no playoff experience but one more guy.
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Picking in the lottery may very well produce a player that can take us over the hump. I think we can wait one more year for the playoffs. The big thing is for the young guys to get more playing time next season. Not to play a few minutes in the playoffs this year.
 
NCJazz said:
Lillard, Marshall, or perhaps Wroten who probably has the most talent of the three. In free agency I would love to go after Dragic, but has probably priced himself out of our range now. If this was a case where we would just be drafting a couple of spots later I would be all for making the playoffs.
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Exactly. We're not talking about drafting 13/14 vs. 16/17. We're talking about drafting late lottery vs. potentially NOT having ANY pick (and in a good draft).
 
we have to lose that pick at some point anyway. so if we keep the pick this year, we lose the pick next year. why don't people get that?

wanna know how valuable a pick in that range is? i looked at the last 30 players selected in the 12-14 spots, and there wasn't a single all-star on the list. there was about double the chance of the guy not lasting in the league (43%) than becoming a regular starter (23%), and only one guy in the entire group has ever averaged 20 ppg in a season.

you can see the full detail here (https://www.jazzbros.com/2012/04/valueoflatelottopick/), but suffice it to say that a 12-14 pick is highly unlikely to be a franchise changer. most of them have been role players, scrubs, or total busts.
 
still rather get it this year,
if the draft is strong this year,
and hoping that next year the Jazz will have a better record with the 4 all more experienced.

getting in as 7th or 8th does not thrill me
getting in as 5th or better is interesting
 
the whole "strong draft" argument doesn't hold water for me. the draft is as strong as you are at drafting. tony parker was the 29th pick in what is widely regarded as one of the weakest drafts of the current era, and he in a finals MVP and a 3-time champion.

this year's draft being supposedly strong doesn't mean you're going to get a top 5 caliber guy at 14. it just means there are more guys who project to have the ability to stick in the NBA. history shows that, at 12-14, we're still going to get a guy who is twice as likely to be a bust as he is to earn a regular role as an NBA starter.
 
For a guy who calls himself a nerd, you aren't very good at logic.
A strong draft, by definition , means that the players at a given pick are likely to better than players picked there in other years, so a strong draft does matter.
and,
Cherry picking one player that turned out well at 29 is meaningless. if you were right, teams would trade their 14 picks for 29 picks.
 
no it doesn't mean that by definition. it means that a few stuffed shirts got together and looked at this draft class and declared it a "strong draft" based on any number of variables. the average draft has 2 all-stars and 8 regular starters, so a "strong draft could mean that these guys think there are 4 future all-stars, or it could simply mean they think it is a "deep" draft, like 1996 that had a handful of future stars but also a huge number of guys who had decent careers. but calling a draft class deep with the benefit of 16 years' worth of hindsight means more to me than calling a draft class deep because we really like what their draftexpress profiles say.

all that argument aside, that's why i looked at 10 years worth of draft picks in that range. some of those years were "strong" draft classes, some were "weak" ones, and some were fairly average... and yet, 0 of 30 guys in that entire span reached an all-star game or an all-NBA team. less than a quarter of them are NBA starters. nearly half didn't last in the league. i'm just saying that, strong draft or not, the odds are stacked against us finding someone at 12, 13 or 14 who is going to be the difference-maker for the next 5-10 years of jazz basketball.
 
No , "stacked against" is incorrect. Correct would be saying "stacked in favor" as in strong draft.

Not every player becomes a star, but some do. There are plenty of guys who were picked at 12 or lower who became good players, and getting the draft pick gets us a shot at that, and if it is as strong a draft as people think, then the odds are even better this year.

Does getting a 12 to 14 pick give the Jazz a chance of improving the team down the line? Yes, hands down.
If a 12 pick this year is comparable to an 8 pick in another year, the argument is even more compelling.

Where were Malone and Stockton picked?
 
why would anyone want this team to win another game? the last thing i want is the jazz to back into the playoffs this year. they arent winning a championship so i could care less.

a lottery pick > losing in the playoffs
 
Kevin "God" Love is out of game. I think Minny is looking forward the pick now.
It is unfortunately to us that we lose game to Minny, but Houston, Dallas & Denver win.
 
Graziejazz said:
Kevin "God" Love is out of game. I think Minny is looking forward the pick now.
It is unfortunately to us that we lose game to Minny, but Houston, Dallas & Denver win.
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I have repeated this a lot, Minnesota does not own their pick. They have 0 incentive to suck. They just do, in all actuality, suck ***.

Glad for New Orleans though because they could be looking at two top 10 picks in a nice draft. Should held speed up their rebuilding process, especially if they get Davis (fingers crossed). I can actually like the Hornets as my local team now that Paul is gone.
 
northeast said:
No , "stacked against" is incorrect. Correct would be saying "stacked in favor" as in strong draft.
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you aren't listening. in ALL drafts combined since 2000, the 12-14 slots have not produced a single all-NBA player or all-star. not one. strong drafts, weak drafts, all drafts.

Not every player becomes a star, but some do. There are plenty of guys who were picked at 12 or lower who became good players, and getting the draft pick gets us a shot at that, and if it is as strong a draft as people think, then the odds are even better this year.
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very, very few do, regardless of draft position. i read today that, on average, a draft yields 2-3 all-stars. if this one is crazy good, it will yield 4-5. most will be in the top 5, but yes, every year somebody outside the top 5 surprises and becomes something special. if you think we're crazy smart enough to find that guy at 14 in this draft, then we should be just fine to find that guy with a 15-20 pick next year. if we keep our pick this year, we lose our pick next year, when we don't have a golden pick to bail us out.

Does getting a 12 to 14 pick give the Jazz a chance of improving the team down the line? Yes, hands down.
If a 12 pick this year is comparable to an 8 pick in another year, the argument is even more compelling.
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you're asking the wrong questions. it's not "does the 12-14 pick give the jazz a chance of improving"... it's "does the 12-14 pick give the jazz MORE of a chance of improving than a 15-20 pick next year plus some playoff experience for young guys.

Where were Malone and Stockton picked?
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that was a different era, and even back then they were the exception. you know that as well as i do. doesn't change the fact -- picking outside the top 5-10 int he draft DRASTICALLY reduces the chance of finding a franchise-changing player. i've shown that over and over again in this thread.
 
for those of you who do care about the playoffs, here's an update on schedule difficulty after tonight:

dallas: 32-26, 8 games left (2 home, 6 road). only 4 left against winning teams. (holds TBs w/ den, hou, uta & phx)
houston: 32-26, 8 games left (4 home, 4 road), 5 left against winning teams. (lost TBs to dal & uta, currently tied w/ den, 2-1 vs phx)
denver: 32-26, 8 games left (3 home, 5 road), 7 left against winning teams. (lost TBs to dal & uta, currently tied w/ hou, beat phx)
utah: 31-28, 7 games left (4 home, 3 road), 4 left against winning teams. (lost TB to dal & phx, won against hou & den)
phx: 30-28, 8 games left (5 home, 3 road), 7 left against winning teams. (lost all TBs except uta)

we have the easiest sked by just about any stretch of the imagination. for the record, i have the rockets projected to finish 5-3 and denver 4-4. so that means 36 wins get us in, maybe 35 if there are some late trip-ups.
 
Darkwing Duck said:
Go be a Golden State fan, then.
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thats the point

for a fan of a franchise that hasn't had much playoff success it would be great to see them there. the jazz have been a winning/playoff team for a long time and we have all seen them accomplish everything except winning an nba championship.

i want the jazz to win a title. big name free agents aren't going to be flocking to utah so the only way to build a contender is through young talent i.e. draft picks. many draft picks do not pan out but i'd rather take my chances with as much young talent/lotto picks as possible.

what does an 8th seed/1st round playoff loss accomplish for this franchise?
 
Soo, unless it is sure fire ring, just lose and get another pick? Makes sense to me.
Nerd is dead on with this one. He even uses facts and stats to back it up, unlike emotional me.
 
Did anybody else listen or hear Chiesa on kall700 a few days ago when he had Fran Fraschilla on? He said the reason he believes this is being called a deep draft is due to the name power because of the lockout looming some players decided to go back to school. So the draft has more recognizable names that people of heard of and some of in his opinion didn't improve as projected and so he was saying besides the #1 pick this draft isn't any different or stronger than any other average draft.
He didn't say it was weak but just not strong like is being said again mostly due to familiarity of some of the names.

I wasn't able to listen to it all and that was just the part I heard.
 
my prediction by now is DENVER PHONIX and UTAH will be 34-32 who will in the playoffs THEN ?????

does anyone know for sure?
 
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