Knight and Freshmen Leading Teams to Final 4

[Borat]

Here is the list I could compile of 18-19 year old freshmen to lead their teams to Final 4 (scoring leaders):

Knight (2011, 17.3 ppg, 4 rpg, 4.2 apg, 42% FG, 80% FT, 38% 3FG)
Love (2008, 17.5 ppg, 10.6 rpg, 1,9 apg, 56% FG, 77% FT, 35% 3FG)
Oden (2007, 15.7 ppg, 9.6 rpg, 3.3 bpg, 62% FG, 63% FT, 0% 3FG)
T.J. Ford (2003, 15 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 7.7 apg, 40% FG, 82% FT, 27% 3FG)
Melo (2003, 22.2 ppg, 10 rpg, 2.2 apg, 45% FG, 71% FT, 34% 3FG)

I have gone as far as ESPN tracker allowed me to go (2002): https://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/team/stats/_/id/96/kentucky-wildcats

The list is short, but there are some solid guys on there. And (unlike the NHS game for Kanter) we are talking about entire season against tough, mostly older competition here, en route to quite remarkable accomplishment. Knight also has an excellent size for a position and top 5 athlete in the draft: https://www.draftexpress.com/article/Analyzing-the-NBA-Combine-Athletic-Testing-Results-3728/

The more I think about it, the more I realize Knight is a top pick in any draft. Seems to me like a no brainer if Irving and Williams are off the board.

 

[somebody]

Knight's FG% leaves something to be desired, especially what it was during the tournament (something like 32 % if I recall, don't quote me on it). Contrast that with Melo who shot 47% his last 5 games.

edit: Okay I checked. During their NCAA tournament games Knight shot 32.9% and Melo shot 47%. That's the problem I have with Knight, is that, with the exception of a few Sundiata Gaines moments, his shooting % really got worse, not better, throughout the season.

 

[vslice02]

Not a complete list - but some others: Joe Forte-UNC, Mike Bibby-Arizona (Miles Simon was the Wildcat's leading scorer but Bibby was the leading scorer in the Championship game), Chris Webber (Michigan).

 

[larryselbows]

Not to mention that Knight is one of only 3 players ever to be national player of the year twice in high school. (Oden and James are the others.)

 

[Dr. Jones]

Knight's FG% leaves something to be desired, especially what it was during the tournament (something like 32 % if I recall, don't quote me on it). Contrast that with Melo who shot 47% his last 5 games.

edit: Okay I checked. During their NCAA tournament games Knight shot 32.9% and Melo shot 47%. That's the problem I have with Knight, is that, with the exception of a few Sundiata Gaines moments, his shooting % really got worse, not better, throughout the season.

I have a couple concerns with Knight, but shooting isn't one of them. His body of work over a much longer period than the NCAA tourney suggests he's $. His last year of HS he shot more three's than Austin Rivers and hit at a higher percentage.

 

[Ben10]

Everyone seems to think his he is only going to be a Jason Terry type player. Anyone watching the NBA finals. Who wouldn't want a Jason Terry. Great series so far and 17 first half points with 6 min left.

 

[Zerol]

Anyone watching the Finals now? I will happily take Knight if he really turns out to be Jason Terry.

 

[Dr. Jones]

Yep, Terry having a great game.

 

[Jazz4ever]

Knight didn't "lead" them at all. It was a concerted team effort. You could make a case, and PKM will probably agree, Josh Harrelson was their best player in the tournament.

 

[Dr. Jones]

Hmmm .. I don't think I could really agree. Knight shot poorly, but he flat out directed the team. He also had a REAL knack for finding Josh for easy baskets.
Really difficult to quantify who the 'best' player was .. but I can say with 100% certainty that without Knight we don't get out of the first round.

 

[Borat]

Knight's FG% leaves something to be desired, especially what it was during the tournament (something like 32 % if I recall, don't quote me on it). Contrast that with Melo who shot 47% his last 5 games.

edit: Okay I checked. During their NCAA tournament games Knight shot 32.9% and Melo shot 47%. That's the problem I have with Knight, is that, with the exception of a few Sundiata Gaines moments, his shooting % really got worse, not better, throughout the season.

Sometimes in play-offs, when you get into defensive type of games, with refs calling it tight, you end up with lower shooting %. You need to find a way to win, and Knight did that. I don't have to go far for an example: just look at Dirk. He shot 52% in regular season and only about 37-38% in the play-offs. But he still dominated and found a way to win. Knight shot over 44% in regular season, which is pretty good for a PG against very tough competition he has faced as a freshman. With that said, I am not claiming he will be a star like Melo, but he is certainly in very good company, looking at the list of other young freshmen who led their teams to final 4.

 

[Dr. Jones]

Sometimes in play-offs, when you get into defensive type of games, with refs calling it tight, you end up with lower shooting %. You need to find a way to win, and Knight did that. I don't have to go far for an example: just look at Dirk. He shot 52% in regular season and only about 37-38% in the play-offs. But he still dominated and found a way to win. Knight shot over 44% in regular season, which is pretty good for a PG against very tough competition he has faced as a freshman. With that said, I am not claiming he will be a star like Melo, but he is certainly in very good company, looking at the list of other young freshmen who led their teams to final 4.

Nice post.

 

[vslice02]

Sometimes in play-offs, when you get into defensive type of games, with refs calling it tight, you end up with lower shooting %. You need to find a way to win, and Knight did that.

Agree, and one thing we know about Knight, he's not afraid to take big shots in big situations and you can't say that about every player. That's something we saw with Deron against Arizona in the 2005 regional final. You have to like players who have the onions to want to be in those situations - rather than shrinking from them.

 

[somebody]

Sometimes in play-offs, when you get into defensive type of games, with refs calling it tight, you end up with lower shooting %.

But apparently not in the case of Love, Oden, and Melo, who all shot above their regular season averages. And you posted TJ Ford's sophomore numbers.

I can say with 100% certainty that without Knight we [Kentucky] don't get out of the first round.

You mean the game where Knight went something like 1 of 9, and then made the winning layup? This is precisely the sort of praise being heaped on Knight that makes me very hesitant about the Jazz picking him 3rd.

 

[Borat]

But apparently not in the case of Love, Oden, and Melo, who all shot above their regular season averages. And you posted TJ Ford's sophomore numbers.

True, but then again Dirk's example still stands. You are right about Ford. I did find that Deng was a freshman when he made final 4, but he did score about half a point less than Reddick. Knight is in good company still.

You mean the game where Knight went something like 1 of 9, and then made the winning layup? This is precisely the sort of praise being heaped on Knight that makes me very hesitant about the Jazz picking him 3rd.

Agree that it is a concern, but these were poor shooting, low scoring games, and Knight put enough points to win and scored when the team had to score. Like Dirk. Plus the fact his regular season FG% was good in the toughest conference in NCAA is encouraging.

 

[somebody]

When Dirk went 1-11 or whatever it was in the first half, I would argue that he was not leading his team, and that if not for Jason Terry shooting the lights out and several other players playing extremely well that they would have lost. (Dirk said this himself in the post-game). But overall, Dirk did lead in the playoffs. He shot only a slightly lower percentage in the playoffs than he did in the regular season (49% to 51%) and he shot much better from beyond the arc (51% to 39%). Contrast that with Knight shooting 32% in the tourney and 42% in the regular season, and 33% from 3 in the tourney and 37% in the regular season.

Luol Deng shot 54.2% in the tourney and 47.5% in the regular season.
jj redick shot 40.5% in his freshman tourney and 41.3% in the regular season. Less, but not by much.

It would be interesting to me if you could find a good player in the NBA who, in their freshman year, had a 10% drop-off from their regular season average to their tourney average. Of the people you have mentioned so far, only Redick has shot less (and only .8 percent less).

It is becoming less and less likely that the drop-off in Knight's performance was the typical result of the circumstances of a competitive environment (in which most players actually play better) and instead is becoming more and more likely that he simply ended his season on a fizzle.

 

[Borat]

When Dirk went 1-11 or whatever it was in the first half, I would argue that he was not leading his team, and that if not for Jason Terry shooting the lights out and several other players playing extremely well that they would have lost. (Dirk said this himself in the post-game). But overall, Dirk did lead in the playoffs. He shot only a slightly lower percentage in the playoffs than he did in the regular season (49% to 51%) and he shot much better from beyond the arc (51% to 39%). Contrast that with Knight shooting 32% in the tourney and 42% in the regular season, and 33% from 3 in the tourney and 37% in the regular season.

Luol Deng shot 54.2% in the tourney and 47.5% in the regular season.
jj redick shot 40.5% in his freshman tourney and 41.3% in the regular season. Less, but not by much.

It would be interesting to me if you could find a good player in the NBA who, in their freshman year, had a 10% drop-off from their regular season average to their tourney average. Of the people you have mentioned so far, only Redick has shot less (and only .8 percent less).

It is becoming less and less likely that the drop-off in Knight's performance was the typical result of the circumstances of a competitive environment (in which most players actually play better) and instead is becoming more and more likely that he simply ended his season on a fizzle.

I know D Rose had quite a bit of a drop off in shooting in first round and finals of the play-offs in NBA this year, yet he was still far and away the best player on the team. But, I would agree, the fact Knight shot poor in tourney is a concern.

 

[somebody]

I'm not opposed to taking Knight. He shot Deron William's career average, so clearly there's much more to a player's game than percentages. I have not seen Knight play and I've heard mostly good things. It's just that I'm not thrilled about taking a player at 3 who almost certainly would not be taken at 4, or maybe even at 5 or 6. On the other hand, there is very good chance that Kanter would be taken at 4.

If the Jazz like what they see from Knight, then I hope they find a way to trade down for him.

 

[Dr. Jones]

But apparently not in the case of Love, Oden, and Melo, who all shot above their regular season averages. And you posted TJ Ford's sophomore numbers.


You mean the game where Knight went something like 1 of 9, and then made the winning layup? This is precisely the sort of praise being heaped on Knight that makes me very hesitant about the Jazz picking him 3rd.

You seriously think the only thing Knight did well in that game was making the final shot? I certainly wasn't saying that ..

 

[Borat]

I'm not opposed to taking Knight. He shot Deron William's career average, so clearly there's much more to a player's game than percentages. I have not seen Knight play and I've heard mostly good things. It's just that I'm not thrilled about taking a player at 3 who almost certainly would not be taken at 4, or maybe even at 5 or 6. On the other hand, there is very good chance that Kanter would be taken at 4.

If the Jazz like what they see from Knight, then I hope they find a way to trade down for him.

The fact Knight shot well below his solid regular season 44% in tourney is a concern, and that makes him a notch below top 2 guys in the draft: Irving and Williams. But, he did shoot well in regular season against top competition and found a way to lead his team to #3 rankings. His overall %, while not as good as in regular season, is still fairly decent for a PG. So, yeah, he is below top 2, but I think clearly #3. As far as trading down to get him, yes, if Cavs pick Irving 1st, he is unlikely to go #4, since the same team is picking at 4 and he plays the same position. But he would likely be gone by 5. That's only one spot we are talking about here. As far as Kanter, he might slide also, like Podz and Lampe did. I would not assume. I would pick the best guy at #3, and moved on. After Knight I feel there is quite a bit of a drop-off in this draft.