None of what you are proposing is new. Utopian Socialism always fails into totalitarianism. Always. You argued about it being different this time because automation will bring in a post-scarcity society. What that looks like is the Middle East where nations don’t depend on the work product of their citizens but on the sale of oil to finance the government. That too ends up in totalitarianism where the state seizes control of the source of revenue as a means of retaining their hold on power.
What you are proposing doesn’t work. It hasn’t ever worked. If the primary source of revenue needed for the government to function isn’t the people themselves then the people will be viewed as a threat with no benefit, and the government will treat them as such. It will result in totalitarianism. Always. Always. Always. Always. The only thing that will be new is how much faster and more brutally the rulers will be able to handle threats if they don’t have to rely on humans in the army or police. The ability to use algorithms to process every word everyone says and to use inexpensive drones to deliver an end to the threat will be new.
Is what I'm suggesting Utopian Socialism? UBI would be a program that operates within a capitalistic system. Sure it would be a socialist program. We have several. Most European countries have several socialist programs that work in their mixed economy. It works really well. UBI doesn't mean total socialism anymore than social security does.
You're arguing against socialism as a boogeyman instead of discussing the things I'm saying, so if that's what we're doing here I'm out.
I'm talking about a near future reality where WE DON'T NEED ALL THE WORKERS. That time is coming no matter how much you'd like to put that genie back in the bottle. It takes complex automation, no AI required.
I work with automated systems. They are generally applied as a patchwork tied together in a PLC program that requires significant human intervention. Sensor gets dirty and the system stops. Package is a little crooked and it gets stuck on the conveyor. Material was exposed to high humidity causing it to warp and it flies off the suction cup before it is placed. Glue gun is not aimed correctly and a wad of glue builds up causing a mechanism to get stuck. Those are breakdowns. They require a person to see them and fix them. But we are getting better at having an HMI give an accurate error message so that they get addressed sooner. We are getting better at designing systems that have fewer of these problems. We will eventually have robots taking care of the other robots for known issues that can't otherwise be avoided. Like a crooked box causes the case to get stuck in this particular spot, the system recognized the issue and the nearby robot arm pushes the box along (or a pneumatic piston, or a blast of air, or a thing that vibrates the conveyor belt).
The other thing people are needed for is to load materials into the automated system. Well, eventually raw materials will be packaged in a way that a robotic forklift can pick it up straight from the driverless truck and place it on an automatic loading system and the system will unpackage the materials and consume them. The finished goods pallets will be carried by robotic forklifts to an automated warehouse (already happens, I've worked with these systems). Then the automated warehouse will load those finished goods pallets into different driverless trucks to be taken to the point of sale, or shipped directly to the end user.
This is going to happen and it is going to be good. No AI required, just good programming and design, along with standardization of certain things.
There are already robot bar tenders. Robot burger flippers. Robot delivery drones.
We aren't tuning back.
Eventually we will not need unskilled or semi-skilled labor at the levels we currently do. Even many jobs requiring a degree are going to go away, accounting comes to mind.
You have not offered a single solution to this, just said "socialism leads to totalitarianism." When half the country can't find work WTF do you suggest we do about that?
I don't know if was you recently talking about how we need a healthy birthrate and/or people to come here from other places to continue to work all these jobs that need doing in order to pay taxes and buy things to keep our economy going, but that is currently true and has always been true for over 1000 years, or whatever, at least since the industrial revolution. That essential fact is going to change.
Your reason why socialism and communism requires force in order to work is going to change. The reason why force is required is because labor was required and socialism is a productive work demotivator. These factors are about to be flipped on their head.
UBI would be a socialist program within a capitalistic system. Some people will still work, some because they want more than the basic income, some because they are passionate about what they do, some for fame and fortune. There will still be businesses and business owners. There will still be a competitive marketplace. People will still decide if they like Coke or Pepsi. Some people will want the bigger house that basic can't afford.
I mean we could go full socialism, but UBI is not full socialism. The ultra profitable, nearly labor free, enterprises will have to fund UBI, largely so that people exist who can afford to consume their products. But you're acting like Socialist party leaders are going to seize the means of production and force us all to toil even though there is no benefit to us toiling. That's not what UBI is.
