I've started a couple of threads lately arguing that, contrary to popular opinion, winning the race to the bottom isn't the end-all-and-be-all for teams that want to re-start their pathway to the championship.
The article here is by Riley Gisseman in Salt City Hoops. Riley's a far better data scientist than I am, so it's interesting to see what he found here. (I'll probably need to review the article more than once to figure out if I totally buy the conclusion, but it seems plausible to me at first read.)
saltcityhoops.com
One of his basic premises is that teams ought to spend money to acquire great supporting pieces to maximize their championship opportunities when (rather than after) their best players are still on rookie contracts/extensions. This is because players on such contracts offer best ratio of winning contribution to contract. But going for it at that point is hard for teams who have committed to multi-year tanks. There will be too much difficulty in finding good complementary pieces at the right price and building winning cultures that point (it's hard to be that nimble in turning your fortunes around when you've committed to a long-term tank).
Although getting a 1st-3rd pick is typically the best possible outcome, he argues that there is a sweet spot in finishing in the 7-10 best lottery odds spot that is nearly as valuable. He finds it to be the best combination of maximizing odds of both finding young players that contribute well above their salary level and maintaining a culture/set of appropriately priced role players that can be used to quickly vault up in the championship odds.
This is his conclusion: "For the present-day Jazz, the implications here are clear: heading into draft lottery night with the best odds at a Victor Wembanyama-level franchise changer would be nice — but being 7th through 10th pre-lottery provides a similar chance at adding championship-level value without necessitating a purge of talent & winning culture – a luxury many previous lottery winners may admit eventually nullified their lottery-night luck."
The article here is by Riley Gisseman in Salt City Hoops. Riley's a far better data scientist than I am, so it's interesting to see what he found here. (I'll probably need to review the article more than once to figure out if I totally buy the conclusion, but it seems plausible to me at first read.)
The Absolute Value of Picks & the Sweet 7-10 Draft Pocket
For an NBA front office evaluating draft picks, ultimately what you’re hoping to do is use your picks in a way that maximizes the pick’s estimated lifetime value to value paid for ratio…
saltcityhoops.com
One of his basic premises is that teams ought to spend money to acquire great supporting pieces to maximize their championship opportunities when (rather than after) their best players are still on rookie contracts/extensions. This is because players on such contracts offer best ratio of winning contribution to contract. But going for it at that point is hard for teams who have committed to multi-year tanks. There will be too much difficulty in finding good complementary pieces at the right price and building winning cultures that point (it's hard to be that nimble in turning your fortunes around when you've committed to a long-term tank).
Although getting a 1st-3rd pick is typically the best possible outcome, he argues that there is a sweet spot in finishing in the 7-10 best lottery odds spot that is nearly as valuable. He finds it to be the best combination of maximizing odds of both finding young players that contribute well above their salary level and maintaining a culture/set of appropriately priced role players that can be used to quickly vault up in the championship odds.
This is his conclusion: "For the present-day Jazz, the implications here are clear: heading into draft lottery night with the best odds at a Victor Wembanyama-level franchise changer would be nice — but being 7th through 10th pre-lottery provides a similar chance at adding championship-level value without necessitating a purge of talent & winning culture – a luxury many previous lottery winners may admit eventually nullified their lottery-night luck."
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