Lion's Roar
Active Member
First and foremost it should be pretty clear that highlights aren't the best way to evaluate players. But what happens when you the casual fan goes to the specialty websites and the best you can watch is a bunch of highlights on the prospects trying to make it at the NBA level? Well I'll share how I do it and hope you agree with me. I'm no expert but I do follow the draft and the NBA quite a bit over the last two decades.
#1 Know your team
When evaluating a player remind yourself that he might not suit your team. Unless you're drafting a player that is a franchise changer your team system (if they have one) is quite important. For instance if your team spends it's time on a pick and roll steady diet that focus on the 3 remaining players spacing the floor a good baseline cutter isn't as important as a team that focus on a flex offense full of movement along the baseline. In this case the same player will have different values to different teams depending solely on their offensive system.
#2 NBA's perimeter defense
There once was a time when you would look at a prospect and say: "that dude does this in college but the perimeter defenders in the NBA won't let him do this". Now you have to say " how well will this dude look in the NBA when defenders can't even breath on him in the perimeter?". Amazing slasher's with basketball IQ's are nearly impossible to stop in today's NBA unless they really can't shoot and the defense can move 3 feet back while guarding them.
#3 Pick and Roll
You may like it or not but most teams play the pick and toll extensively so be aware of players that state things like "can't play the pick and roll" or even worse "can't defend the pick and roll".
#4 Kiss of death of draft prospects
The words "doesn't have a motor" or "severely lacks toughness" are huge red flags. The words "after practice I just chill and watch SpongeBob" don't mean I'm a really cool guy to me Mr. Williams. It means "why is a 19 year old doing watching SpongeBob". It doesn't sound like an hobby of someone that is driven to be great....does it?
#5 Question the information given
For instance if someone says a player is bad defending the pick and roll you should run from him, but if the video of this shows a 7' trying but failing to keep up with a speedy 6' PG that's not necessarily a problem. Even elite defensive 7' struggle with that at times. You know...mass, acceleration, inertia and the lot.
#6 Look at the player for who he is
If folks tell you a player lacks upside or has a high probability of being a bust immediately look for what he can add to your team NOW. If your picking 15th are you really looking for an upside player? If you are it probably explains why teams do such at a bad job at around this picks and get "outdrafted" by their counterparts picking in the high 20's with astounding regularity.
#7 Measurements
Most important measurements to me are Standing reach for big men and wingspan for backcourt players. Why? Standing reach more accuratelly reflect the big armed fellows and their ability to contest shots and the rim and rebound out of position. Wingspan can be big cause of a wide torso that reflects ability to put on weight but shorter arms that might reduce the impact on the defensive end (blocks) cause players are tryiing to make players OVER you. On the other hand wingspan of guards reflects their reach to the side which is more important for steals and to defend players trying to make plays AROUND you.
#8 Shooting touch
Even if a player shoots a bad percentage look for a twitch in his shot. Lack of follow trough, kick of the legs on release, release on the way down, over jumping on his shot might all be fixable. What I don't like to watch is different shooting motions. If a player shoots all over the place then that is BAD. Reveals no muscle memory involved in the process. A shot should look relatively the same all over the floor and in different situations. It's probably hard to work that over enough to produce a good jump shooter.
#9 Three Point shooting
If your team has a new age GM and you have a guy that shoots a high percentage of threes in a high number of attempts then that player will be very valuable to your team. Cause that is what will be asked of him, shoot threes and shoot a lot of them. At this point I question if a .350 3 point shooter on 10 attempts per game isn't looked upon highly than another player that shoots .400 but only on 5 attempts per game.
#10 Draft is a crap shoot
Remember to tell people about your failures in trying to figure out a player just as often as you remind them of your successes cause even the professionals get it wrong A LOT.
https://nbafromacrossthepond.blogspot.pt/
#1 Know your team
When evaluating a player remind yourself that he might not suit your team. Unless you're drafting a player that is a franchise changer your team system (if they have one) is quite important. For instance if your team spends it's time on a pick and roll steady diet that focus on the 3 remaining players spacing the floor a good baseline cutter isn't as important as a team that focus on a flex offense full of movement along the baseline. In this case the same player will have different values to different teams depending solely on their offensive system.
#2 NBA's perimeter defense
There once was a time when you would look at a prospect and say: "that dude does this in college but the perimeter defenders in the NBA won't let him do this". Now you have to say " how well will this dude look in the NBA when defenders can't even breath on him in the perimeter?". Amazing slasher's with basketball IQ's are nearly impossible to stop in today's NBA unless they really can't shoot and the defense can move 3 feet back while guarding them.
#3 Pick and Roll
You may like it or not but most teams play the pick and toll extensively so be aware of players that state things like "can't play the pick and roll" or even worse "can't defend the pick and roll".
#4 Kiss of death of draft prospects
The words "doesn't have a motor" or "severely lacks toughness" are huge red flags. The words "after practice I just chill and watch SpongeBob" don't mean I'm a really cool guy to me Mr. Williams. It means "why is a 19 year old doing watching SpongeBob". It doesn't sound like an hobby of someone that is driven to be great....does it?
#5 Question the information given
For instance if someone says a player is bad defending the pick and roll you should run from him, but if the video of this shows a 7' trying but failing to keep up with a speedy 6' PG that's not necessarily a problem. Even elite defensive 7' struggle with that at times. You know...mass, acceleration, inertia and the lot.
#6 Look at the player for who he is
If folks tell you a player lacks upside or has a high probability of being a bust immediately look for what he can add to your team NOW. If your picking 15th are you really looking for an upside player? If you are it probably explains why teams do such at a bad job at around this picks and get "outdrafted" by their counterparts picking in the high 20's with astounding regularity.
#7 Measurements
Most important measurements to me are Standing reach for big men and wingspan for backcourt players. Why? Standing reach more accuratelly reflect the big armed fellows and their ability to contest shots and the rim and rebound out of position. Wingspan can be big cause of a wide torso that reflects ability to put on weight but shorter arms that might reduce the impact on the defensive end (blocks) cause players are tryiing to make players OVER you. On the other hand wingspan of guards reflects their reach to the side which is more important for steals and to defend players trying to make plays AROUND you.
#8 Shooting touch
Even if a player shoots a bad percentage look for a twitch in his shot. Lack of follow trough, kick of the legs on release, release on the way down, over jumping on his shot might all be fixable. What I don't like to watch is different shooting motions. If a player shoots all over the place then that is BAD. Reveals no muscle memory involved in the process. A shot should look relatively the same all over the floor and in different situations. It's probably hard to work that over enough to produce a good jump shooter.
#9 Three Point shooting
If your team has a new age GM and you have a guy that shoots a high percentage of threes in a high number of attempts then that player will be very valuable to your team. Cause that is what will be asked of him, shoot threes and shoot a lot of them. At this point I question if a .350 3 point shooter on 10 attempts per game isn't looked upon highly than another player that shoots .400 but only on 5 attempts per game.
#10 Draft is a crap shoot
Remember to tell people about your failures in trying to figure out a player just as often as you remind them of your successes cause even the professionals get it wrong A LOT.
https://nbafromacrossthepond.blogspot.pt/
