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Game Thread NBA Draft Lottery - May 12, 2025

Added to Calendar: 05-12-25

I can confirm that the team 4-8 do not have a better chance landing at 1 or 2. My source is math. Its a small sample and yes we likely end up at 5... but we still gave ourselves the best chance which was the responsible thing to do.
Than any of them individually yes, but as a group, no. As a group they have a 40% chance of one of them moving up, where we have a 14% chance of it.
 
The odds favor us ending up with the 5th pick. It seems, even looking more at past drafts, that the teams in the 4th-8th spots have better chances of ending up in #1 or #2. One of them, as a group, has a better chance at it than we do, frankly. So it seems they have managed to break the lottery down so that tanking does not guarantee anything.
I mean, if you're grouping them, then its more likely that someone in just either the 6 or the 7 spot will win the #1 than we do individually. So, yeah, much better chances that someone in the 4-8 spot will end up #1 or #2 if you are combining all of them. We still have a better shot than any individual one of them though.

Like, that doesn't mean they are better off because they are in that group. I could say there's a 58% chance a team outside the top 3 will win the #1 pick. Its true, but it doesn't mean you have a better chance if you are in that group than if you're in the 1-3 group.
 
I mean, if you're grouping them, then its more likely that someone in just either the 6 or the 7 spot will win the #1 than we do individually. So, yeah, much better chances that someone in the 4-8 spot will end up #1 or #2 if you are combining all of them. We still have a better shot than any individual one of them though.

Like, that doesn't mean they are better off because they are in that group. I could say there's a 58% chance a team outside the top 3 will win the #1 pick. Its true, but it doesn't mean you have a better chance if you are in that group than if you're in the 1-3 group.
Yes but it supports the conspiracy theory better, so there is that;.
 
Lolz at everyone appeal to teh maths. We’re the Utah Jazz. Even with a floor of 5th, when we somehow end up landing the sixth pick, there’s going to be a rash apologetic articles about “why it actually makes sense.”
 
I can confirm that the team 4-8 do not have a better chance landing at 1 or 2. My source is math. Its a small sample and yes we likely end up at 5... but we still gave ourselves the best chance which was the responsible thing to do.
and honestly the bolded is why the lottery is a good system to discourage tanking while at the same time at least giving bad teams a chance to get better. for a team like the jazz, it's probably the only way to get to the top, but the odds are stacked against it.
 
I think the Jazz are going to get into the top 4. I can smell it.

The conspiracy theorist in me thinks the league may want Philly to keep their pick rather than send more talent to OKC. That means Philly would need to move into the top 4 if more than one team jumps them. Brooklyn is another team I could picture moving up, either to keep the pick or use it as part of a trade for a star, like Giannis.
 
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and honestly the bolded is why the lottery is a good system to discourage tanking while at the same time at least giving bad teams a chance to get better. for a team like the jazz, it's probably the only way to get to the top, but the odds are stacked against it.
Theoretically discourages tanking and yet… here we are.
 
Theoretically discourages tanking and yet… here we are.
Maybe it encourages the bottom 6-7 to tank even harder to raise the floor because of how much they may get screwed, and further encourages tanking on the back end of the lottery because now those cats feel they have a chance.
 
I am ****ing anxious about this.
If we aren’t able to hit on this, we’re ****ed. And if we can’t successfully tank next year and hit again, we’re still pretty ****ed. Lining up both of those and we’re definitely ****ed. It really takes the pressure off and should ease anxiety. I think there’s actually a Matthew Broderick quote about this from The Freshman. Or maybe it was even Ferris Bueller. I’ll go find it.
 
If we aren’t able to hit on this, we’re ****ed. And if we can’t successfully tank next year and hit again, we’re still pretty ****ed. Lining up both of those and we’re definitely ****ed. It really takes the pressure off and should ease anxiety. I think there’s actually a Matthew Broderick quote about this from The Freshman. Or maybe it was even Ferris Bueller. I’ll go find it.
Found it.


View: https://youtu.be/mBMZe-Qfp_w?feature=shared
 
and honestly the bolded is why the lottery is a good system to discourage tanking while at the same time at least giving bad teams a chance to get better. for a team like the jazz, it's probably the only way to get to the top, but the odds are stacked against it.
It’s objectively not a good system because teams are still tanking, so all the lottery does is unfairly punish some teams and reward others.
 
Since they flattened the odds

2019
Worst team - NYK fell to 3rd overall
7th worst New Orleans moved up to #1

2020
Worst team - Golden State fell to 2nd overall
3rd worst Minnesota moved up to #1

2021
Worst team - Houston fell to 2nd overall
2nd worst Detroit moved up to #1

2022
Worst team - Houston fell to 3rd overall
2nd worst Orlando moved up to #1

2023
Worst team - Detroit fell to 5th overall
3rd worst San Antonio moved up to #1

2024
Worst team - Detroit fell to 5th overall
10th worst Atlanta moved up to #1
 
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