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Game Thread NBA Draft Lottery - May 12, 2025

Added to Calendar: 05-12-25

Post a picture or a gif of the elation of getting the top pick or the dissapointment of getting the 5th pick tonight.

Here goes:

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It’s so perfect for the Jazz to win for the first time ever tonight, it just has to happen.


No ****ing chance the Jazz or me actually win something like this.


I’m just jumping between those two thoughts all day today. The real question is whether #5 or #2 hurts more
 
It’s so perfect for the Jazz to win for the first time ever tonight, it just has to happen.


No ****ing chance the Jazz or me actually win something like this.


I’m just jumping between those two thoughts all day today. The real question is whether #5 or #2 hurts more
#2 hurts more. #5 is just expected.
 
Question for percentages people. If we have counted down from #14-6 and no team has jumped into the top 4 yet. What are the chances at that moment the Jazz are #5?
 
Interesting, let me work on this, along with other scenarios, i.e. one team, two teams, etc. are in the top 4.
OK, nevermind on the other scenarios. It would depend too much on who jumped in to the top 4 and who fell to 6th and I don't want to calculate all of that out.

If we get to the 5th pick and no team has jumped in to the lottery yet then the Jazz will have a 21% chance at number one and a 81% chance at a top 4 pick, if I calculated it correctly.
 
Question for percentages people. If we have counted down from #14-6 and no team has jumped into the top 4 yet. What are the chances at that moment the Jazz are #5?
So, the top 5 teams have the following number of balls:
1: 140
2: 140
3: 140
4: 125
5: 105

Add those up, and there are 650. That means there is about a 21.5% chance of us getting chosen for 1, 2, 3, or 4, for a total of about 86%. Meaning at the point there would be about a 14% chance of us getting the #5.
 
Anyone know the best way to watch tonight? (If I can handle the anxiety, ha)

EDIT: Never mind, found it. 5:00 mountain on ESPN
 
So, the top 5 teams have the following number of balls:
1: 140
2: 140
3: 140
4: 125
5: 105

Add those up, and there are 650. That means there is about a 21.5% chance of us getting chosen for 1, 2, 3, or 4, for a total of about 86%. Meaning at the point there would be about a 14% chance of us getting the #5.
There are different odds for the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th pick. In this scenario we would have a 20.7% chance at 2, 20% chance at 3, and 19.4% chance at 4. Add those together and the difference is 18.5% chance at 5th.

That's how I got to my math at least.
 
The draft is scheduled to start at 1am my time, but in NBA terms that probably means a lot later. Being an old man, I have resorted to drinking to be able to stay up. Cheers and good luck guys and gals.
 
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