The Monty Hall problem is my favorite educational piece that I keep repeating when analogizing it to statistical significance and publication bias (i.e. something that appears so [the appearance of statistical significance] but is not).
Game Thread NBA Draft Lottery - May 12, 2025
- Thread starter Jason
- Start date
Added to Calendar: 05-12-25
It's absolutely applicable in this case, although the math is tougher because there are some many outcomes.
Maybe. I'd have to think through it. In the Monty Hall problem, doors are revealed with purpose. Whereas with this, "doors" (so to speak) are revealed in a sequential order and without purpose, giving us some level of information that hasn't been filtered (only filtered in the sense of revealing draft order list), but otherwise nothing is being withheld (in that context and up until that point). Now, the other end is that what's being revealed is an outcome that's already happened and what we're seeing is the results of those odds, and it's being revealed in an opposite order from which the results were made, so it makes it a bit harder to reverse engineer. I'll give more thought to pass the time I guess.
This would have to be correct. Before getting to #5, this would only be unfolding one scenario. It changes the odds of eliminating other scenarios, but ultimately wouldn't tell us anything. Unless you play the odds of "this would have been a very odd scenario." Since the first drawing is the one that matters most, the only time the equation is altered is after a certain team is eliminated (by having already had their ball pulled), and since we (or at least me) are less interested in secondary outcomes (i.e. us getting something that's not 1), I guess it's irrelevant.
Shad
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0%. They'll probably have 30 minutes of previewing the top 10/needs of the teams in the top 10
Zero.
Handlogten's Heros
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5:15 with the top 4 being read at 5:20
I know that Flagg is most likely the best possible scenario for the Jazz but, personally, I really want the second pick and Dylan Harper. It was such a long, long time since the Jazz had a confident and productive two-way young guard - and these guys are so much fun to watch. I think that Utah did not have anyone in this mold since young Stockton and Deron.
David Hume
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dipship31
Well-Known Member
Why do you want the Spurs in the top 4?
I definitely don't want SAS to get a top 4 pick. I also don't want OKC to get another top 10 pick (meaning I want Phily to keep their pick). Other than that it would be best if the top picks were kept in the East.
So I guess my preference would be something like: UTA, WAS, CHA, BKN, NOP, PHI
They are a really solid organization who are doing everything right ( and even developed and gave us Hardy!)... and also I don't feel good about the long-term durability of Wemby.