Game Thread Nov 02, 2025 04:00PM MT: Utah Jazz @ Charlotte Hornets

[KqWIN]

My guess is that if we don't land luck in 2026 that 2027 looks more like the half years. IDK... just based on how they have had diamond hands with Lauri thus far I am not sure they would be looking to move him while the base is getting restless and the fruits of the tank look rough thus far.

I think they are more likely to make a "go for the play in" trade than a Lauri trade. Will maybe view their other picks they own from 27-29 and the prospects they have as the way to get lucky in the draft.

I don’t think it will be the same in the sense that we won’t quit half way through to ensure our pick is protected. But yeah I don’t think we’ll be chasing lotto balls in the same. Building from the middle isn’t some kind of purgatory that some make it out to be, but I don’t trust our FO to make good moves and I’d actually bet on them doing something stupid like they tried to do with PG+Bridges.

This tanking thing by hasn’t worked, but attempts by the FO to do otherwise have been horrid.

 

[Tanktastic]

It would be a different type of mid with hopefully some big upside if one or two guys hit or take a leap. It would hopefully be building somewhere.

I really don't see the difference. Unless you think Keyonte, Sensa, Hendricks, Williams, Ace and Walt are somehow that different from Kessler, Ochai, NAW and THT. One of which hit massively, two are useful rotation players (but the Jazz traded for anything they could get) and one is in Turkey. Something like that is the most probable scenario again. (Although Turkey is much too high for Cody, more probable something like a Kosovo or something.)

Its been ******. Slid back twice and haven't jumped up. Landing where you are most probable or in a probable range to land multiple times is not good luck.

It's not good luck, it's not bad luck. The Jazz didn't slide back really. Their weighted draft position last summer pre-lottery was 3,66. Who were the Jazz taking at 4? The year before the weighted expected pick was about 8 and ended up at 10. Gone at 8 and 9 were Dillingham and Edey. Don't really see much bad luck missing out there.

They did get some good luck with Lauri BUT it also helped them be better than they should be in the Wemby draft. So it cut both ways.

That wasn't bad luck, it was massively good luck that the FO then wasted. They could've traded Lauri at the deadline 23, summer of 23, deadline 24, when he had loads of value. That was a decision.

They just can't wait forever imo.

At some point even this fan base probably starts to turn.

But it's impossible for me to see how could the current management sell to everyone that we're now abandoning everything we were about for five years and doing something completely different. That's of course easily fixable by firing everyone. Can't fire the owner though who was and is behind this strategy.

 

[KqWIN]

We keep talking about this tanking thing like it’s been going forever. Again, it’s only been one year. But I 100% understand what people are feeling. Those half year tanks due to the greed of DA were so damaging. It felt like so much wasted time (because it was) and there’s nothing to show for it.

We just played CHO. They are 3 years deep into this. That’s way more typical than one year.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I really don't see the difference. Unless you think Keyonte, Sensa, Hendricks, Williams, Ace and Walt are somehow that different from Kessler, Ochai, NAW and THT. One of which hit massively, two are useful rotation players (but the Jazz traded for anything they could get) and one is in Turkey. Something like that is the most probable scenario again. (Although Turkey is much too high for Cody, more probable something like a Kosovo or something.)

Yes lol... I do see those as different. And we still have the best one in Kessler. We'd also be adding another top 6 or 7 pick to that first group. Go look at his numbers this year. The guy is 25. He will be a 12th man Svi type guy. It is a massive difference.

It's not good luck, it's not bad luck. The Jazz didn't slide back really. Their weighted draft position last summer pre-lottery was 3,66. Who were the Jazz taking at 4? The year before the weighted expected pick was about 8 and ended up at 10. Gone at 8 and 9 were Dillingham and Edey. Don't really see much bad luck missing out there.

The plan relies on getting some good draft lotto luck. Take all the odds over those multiple years and the way it turned out is not likely considered a good or average outcome.

That wasn't bad luck, it was massively good luck that the FO then wasted. They could've traded Lauri at the deadline 23, summer of 23, deadline 24, when he had loads of value. That was a decision.

My guy... I may have started the first "should we trade Lauri" narrative out here. Part of the reason was hosting the AS game that year... it was likely that best move (either then or the next year). I have no idea what this has to do with the argument at all. I am saying they won't move him unless they get a big offer. Not that its right or wrong.

At some point even this fan base probably starts to turn.

But it's impossible for me to see how could the current management sell to everyone that we're now abandoning everything we were about for five years and doing something completely different. That's of course easily fixable by firing everyone. Can't fire the owner though who was and is behind this strategy.

Its super easy. They say "hey look the tank has yielded the big pick we want... we still have an AS in Lauri... we think some of the young guys will come along and we will add to this group and take the next step".

The last 4 years they have oscillated between paths in a weird way... so anyone thinking they will "stick to their guns" needs to tell me what those guns are.

 

[Tremendous Upside]

We keep talking about this tanking thing like it’s been going forever. Again, it’s only been one year.

Kneecapping your team at midseason is tanking.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

We keep talking about this tanking thing like it’s been going forever. Again, it’s only been one year. But I 100% understand what people are feeling. Those half year tanks due to the greed of DA were so damaging. It felt like so much wasted time (because it was) and there’s nothing to show for it.

We just played CHO. They are 3 years deep into this. That’s way more typical than one year.

And from where we are... I could get behind trading Lauri and turning back the clock even more. I just don't trust the FO/owner to not base their next steps based on sunk costs and the "rebuild" taking 4+ years without a sure fire star (assuming Ace doesn't turn several corners and we don't get lotto luck).

I guess what I am saying is I am resigning myself to the fate that if we don't get lucky in this lotto we go full on middle build... and I will just cross my fingers.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Kneecapping your team at midseason is tanking.

That's half tanking. Kneecapping your team to start the season is full tanking.

 

[fishonjazz]

Hardy has got to be the safest coach in the league. It's already an ongoing joke in national media that all he ever does is get extended. There is zero heat on him.

Temperature gets turned up a bit next season

 

[Tanktastic]

Go look at his numbers this year. The guy is 25. He will be a 12th man Svi type guy. It is a massive difference.

Who?

The plan relies on getting some good draft lotto luck. Take all the odds over those multiple years and the way it turned out is not likely considered a good or average outcome.

Not good, but pretty much near the average, yeah. The absence of good luck isn't super ****** bad luck.

My guy... I may have started the first "should we trade Lauri" narrative out here. Part of the reason was hosting the AS game that year... it was likely that best move (either then or the next year). I have no idea what this has to do with the argument at all. I am saying they won't move him unless they get a big offer. Not that its right or wrong.

Sure. But, as I understood it, the discussion was on whether the Jazz have been lucky, super unlucky or just average. By being lucky, the Jazz could be in a much better position. That applies to every single thing in the universe.

Its super easy. They say "hey look the tank has yielded the big pick we want... we still have an AS in Lauri... we think some of the young guys will come along and we will add to this group and take the next step".

Well, that again requires them to be lucky and get that pick.

The last 4 years they have oscillated between paths in a weird way... so anyone thinking they will "stick to their guns" needs to tell me what those guns are.

I don't know if there have been paths at all.

Trading Mitchell and Gobert was an excellent piece of business and extracted maximum value.

And after that the only path I've seen: "I sure hope we get lucky."

I could do that. So could you.

At some point the view of the FO has to turn from "they haven't been that good" to "they're bottom of the league and the main reason why the Jazz are hopeless".

 

[KqWIN]

And from where we are... I could get behind trading Lauri and turning back the clock even more. I just don't trust the FO/owner to not base their next steps based on sunk costs and the "rebuild" taking 4+ years without a sure fire star (assuming Ace doesn't turn several corners and we don't get lotto luck).

I guess what I am saying is I am resigning myself to the fate that if we don't get lucky in this lotto we go full on middle build... and I will just cross my fingers.

If we're talking about being realistic, I can't really see a Lauri trade happening either. We already know that they've tried to exit the tank before and they likely have already turned down the best offers they will ever get for him. And from the ownership/fan perspective, this does feel like we're already 3 years even though we aren't. We haven't gotten the benefits of 3 years of tanking, that's for sure.

I guess where I'd agree with @Tanktastic more than yourself is that the FO has been really poor since the Don/Rudy trades. Yes there was no luck, but the decisions they had control of have been bad....half tank x2 being one of them. But the ironic part about that is if you don't believe your FO is good, you're better off hoping for luck. If the FO was good, I'd feel better about them building from the middle. But because I think they've been really poor I'd rather they rely on luck.

If anyone is hoping from a regime change from the Ainge's any time soon, they're kidding themselves. Unless there's another Ainge out there?

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Who?

Ochai... not exactly useful rotation player. He's a 12th man.

Not good, but pretty much near the average, yeah. The absence of good luck isn't super ****** bad luck.


Sure. But, as I understood it, the discussion was on whether the Jazz have been lucky, super unlucky or just average. By being lucky, the Jazz could be in a much better position. That applies to every single thing in the universe.


Well, that again requires them to be lucky and get that pick.

You almost always need outlier or good luck to win big. Removing the lotto ball luck, which is a key component of our "strategy", will almost certainly lead to the upside of the rebuild being neutered. Need to hit on a middle round pick in an outlier way or call Sacramento or New Orleans or Dallas on the right day.

Having average/below average lotto luck multiple years in a row is super ****** luck compared to the "smart" teams that are trending towards being a contender. Call it whatever you like but you are beating a dead horse.

I don't know if there have been paths at all.

Trading Mitchell and Gobert was an excellent piece of business and extracted maximum value.

And after that the only path I've seen: "I sure hope we get lucky."

I could do that. So could you.

At some point the view of the FO has to turn from "they haven't been that good" to "they're bottom of the league and the main reason why the Jazz are hopeless".

Do you think I am pro-Ainges? Increasing your chances at getting lucky is a legit plan in the NBA. Can you or I do it? Sure. I've said for years I doubt I'd be a bottom 5-10 GM in the league based on how some of these teams operate. They have also made some mistakes. They have chosen the path of being opportunistic and flexible... not the path I would have taken.

They have avoided the catastrophic mistake and they also haven't taken amazing luck and squandered it. Take the Kings for example... they had the good luck to have a chance to draft Luka... took Bagley. They also had a top 10 ish player in house with Tyrese... moved him for a clunky fitting fringe AS.

So it could be worse. If your contention is that the Ainges have been mid... you will not get disagreement from me.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

If we're talking about being realistic, I can't really see a Lauri trade happening either. We already know that they've tried to exit the tank before and they likely have already turned down the best offers they will ever get for him. And from the ownership/fan perspective, this does feel like we're already 3 years even though we aren't. We haven't gotten the benefits of 3 years of tanking, that's for sure.

I guess where I'd agree with @Tanktastic more than yourself is that the FO has been really poor since the Don/Rudy trades. Yes there was no luck, but the decisions they had control of have been bad....half tank x2 being one of them. But the ironic part about that is if you don't believe your FO is good, you're better off hoping for luck. If the FO was good, I'd feel better about them building from the middle. But because I think they've been really poor I'd rather they rely on luck.

If anyone is hoping from a regime change from the Ainge's any time soon, they're kidding themselves. Unless there's another Ainge out there?

Just so we don't get it twisted.... I don't think the Ainge's have been great. I came up with made up theories to try and justify dumb things they did lol. I was one of the folks that definitely though we were too good going into the Wemby draft.

If I was making decisions based on where we are I would wait until the lotto night to really make a big pivot unless someone came with a big offer for Lauri. It would depend on my opinion of the 2027 draft but striking out in 2026 might push me to tank one more year. I might be tempted to make a win sooner move if I found a cheap one though and rely on my other picks to provide the upside swings.

Side note - getting lucky is way too big of a component of success in the NBA. Not getting it feels like trying to bake a cake without sugar. That's right... I went back to cake baking.

 

[Tanktastic]

Ochai... not exactly useful rotation player. He's a 12th man.

Ok. Not that Ochai matters that much to the discussion, but he averaged 27 mpg last season.

Having average/below average lotto luck multiple years in a row is super ****** luck compared to the "smart" teams that are trending towards being a contender. Call it whatever you like but you are beating a dead horse.

Average luck is average luck is not super ****** luck. I don't really understand how this can be even a debate.

The Mavs hitting on Flagg was super-super-super lucky, but that doesn't change what has happened to the Jazz in the least.

They have avoided the catastrophic mistake and they also haven't taken amazing luck and squandered it. Take the Kings for example... they had the good luck to have a chance to draft Luka... took Bagley. They also had a top 10 ish player in house with Tyrese... moved him for a clunky fitting fringe AS.

So it could be worse. If your contention is that the Ainges have been mid... you will not get disagreement from me.

I don't think there has been any single mistake that you could point to that was a catastrophe. It's the overall lack of any sort of real strategy, other than "get lucky". Sure, they haven't made any really bad picks. But making those picks has massively de-valued those assets. The Jazz's own pick was a really valuable asset, Cody Williams isn't. Turning the Minny picks into Keyonte and Clayton probably hasn't at least added value.

So, no Bagley pick, just slowly bleeding constantly.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Ok. Not that Ochai matters that much to the discussion, but he averaged 27 mpg last season.


Average luck is average luck is not super ****** luck. I don't really understand how this can be even a debate.

The Mavs hitting on Flagg was super-super-super lucky, but that doesn't change what has happened to the Jazz in the least.

I don't think there has been any single mistake that you could point to that was a catastrophe. It's the overall lack of any sort of real strategy, other than "get lucky". Sure, they haven't made any really bad picks. But making those picks has massively de-valued those assets. The Jazz's own pick was a really valuable asset, Cody Williams isn't. Turning the Minny picks into Keyonte and Clayton probably hasn't at least added value.

So, no Bagley pick, just slowly bleeding constantly.

Was just pointing out that we could have amazing luck and squander it. They may have avoided the catastrophic mistake on accident but I will give them a little credit for not going NOP or Kangz or Suns.

Luck is required... so saying "get lucky" is a good strategy. They likely should have leaned more into that and goosed the numbers even more. If the Spurs had our luck wouldn't their FO be under fire?

The difference between many of the best FO and the average FO is luck. I don't have much to criticize if that was their strategy tbh. When they have tried to get cute by adding a John Collins or hold onto a guy too long rather than taking a fair offer is when they have faltered. Other than the Williams pick, the picks haven't even been that bad.

The asset base has lost value. Again, if you think I am a huge fan of their work then you are arguing with a wall. I've been pretty critical tbh.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Its just looking at where we currently sit... Say the best offer they have for Lauri is two firsts from Detroit and expiring salary. Are you taking that?

At this point I'd rather see if we can land a top 3 pick and pair them with Lauri... or if its Boozer maybe see what kind of deals are there for Lauri this offseason.

I think we end up being a bottom 4 team. I think this Walker thing will cause him to miss some real time. Being without our second best player will be pretty detrimental to our record.

 

[outerspacefan]

It’s impossible to have a bottom three record and not stink.

Any team that looks mostly competent won’t lose nearly enough

I understand what you are saying, it's semantically correct.
But, basketball wise, you should be able to lose games playing with effort and trying to run adequate schemes, lineups planned to help young guys abilities.
You don't need more than a little bunch of minutes to throw away a game.
If this awful to watch thing continues, Hardy should be accountable... there's no reason for our young guys to be absolute D non factors, no effort dudes.
It's on coach to promote, foster, reward adequate behaviors, patterns...