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Obama Might Lose This

One Brow said:
I have no complaints about RCP as a site. I'm just pointing out why sirkickyass feels a regression analysis gives a better indication of what the polls are saying than an average of averages gives. I certainly don't want to disturb your personal preference.
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You might very well be right. To be honest if RCP used that method instead of averaging the polls then that is what I would be comfortable with. I really like that site and they average polls so that is how I get my info.
 
Gameface said:
Agreed. I can understand why some see it as apathy, but if there's no real choice you accomplish nothing by pretending to make a choice.

There are no viable options in this election.

I think Trout talked me into showing up and writing in a candidate for pres. pretty much to be counted as someone who didn't support either of our major parties.

I heard a funny Bob Hope joke recently. It's gonna be paraphrased.
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My take on voting is that there is more on the ballot than president. Usually there are local initiatives, city council, mayor, senate, house reps at the state and federal level...

Write in Big Bird for president. The real change will start when we place people with morals and the ability to listen and compromise in as mayors, school boards council members, state level reps, Senators...

We have to start somewhere.
 
Stoked said:
My take on voting is that there is more on the ballot than president. Usually there are local initiatives, city council, mayor, senate, house reps at the state and federal level...

Write in Big Bird for president. The real change will start when we place people with morals and the ability to listen and compromise in as mayors, school boards council members, state level reps, Senators...

We have to start somewhere.
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I agree. I would also like to see a bit more local power (but that's just a whole 'nother huge discussion).

As for me not voting this way, I was living in a new state, or multiple states, each year so I never got a good grasp on the local needs/politicians. Otherwise, I would have been voting as you outlined above.
 
I need to educate myself on what issues are on the local ballot. Right now I can't think of a single initiative, judge, city council member, or anything else local that I even have a clue about.
 
Gameface said:
I need to educate myself on what issues are on the local ballot. Right now I can't think of a single initiative, judge, city council member, or anything else local that I even have a clue about.
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In Utah here are some more local votes:

Love v. Matheson
Hatch v. Howell
Utah Governor
 
Sirkickyass said:
This is the thrust of my question. Why do you prefer a simple average over regression analysis?

I've worked enough with stata to seriously respect the relational insights it gives.
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I'm interested in why you think it is more relevant.

Doesn't strata require qualifying subgroups before the survey? If so, how does Nate Silver's adjustements correct that after the fact? I looked into his methodology & it seems highly subjective. I don't doubt he's trying to minimize bias, but that he may not be able to when using already faulty polls. He has a ton of adjustments that seem similar to index adjusting but very subjective.

Not trying to be confrontational or anything. I don't know anything about polling methodology but relating it to quantifying chemicals has left more questions than answers.
 
franklin said:
I'm interested in why you think it is more relevant.

Doesn't strata require qualifying subgroups before the survey?

Not trying to be confrontational or anything. I don't know anything about polling methodology but relating it to quantifying chemicals has left more questions than answers.
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I'm not certain how to address the other parts of this beause this part has left me somewhat baffled.

It's possible we have a misread situation. I'm referencing stata, which is a regression analysis computer program: https://www.stata.com/

As for the methodology he's using I find most of it to either be obviously in best practices or above my personal ability to evaluate. Some of the index adjusting that you're referring to is empirical. House effects adjustments are based upon actual results vs. projected results of the poll across multiple election cycles. Other adjustments generally have a similarly empirical basis. Some of these are very sophisticaed. Silver had an article recently about measuring polls accuracy when they're going against the grain of conventional wisdom. As a general rule, I find it difficult to believe his model is significantly weighting non-statistically significant factors. Also, anytime you make your name in two different fields using statistical modeling at such a young age and with a high degree of accuracy in both fields my general assumption is that he's frankly better at it than I am.
 
Sirkickyass said:
As for the methodology he's using I find most of it to either be obviously in best practices or above my personal ability to evaluate. Some of the index adjusting that you're referring to is empirical. House effects adjustments are based upon actual results vs. projected results of the poll across multiple election cycles. Other adjustments generally have a similarly empirical basis. Some of these are very sophisticaed. Silver had an article recently about measuring polls accuracy when they're going against the grain of conventional wisdom. As a general rule, I find it difficult to believe his model is significantly weighting non-statistically significant factors. Also, anytime you make your name in two different fields using statistical modeling at such a young age and with a high degree of accuracy in both fields my general assumption is that he's frankly better at it than I am.
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Everybody keep an eye out for the asteroid that's headed our way.
 
Sirkickyass said:
I'm not certain how to address the other parts of this beause this part has left me somewhat baffled.

It's possible we have a misread situation. I'm referencing stata, which is a regression analysis computer program: https://www.stata.com/

As for the methodology he's using I find most of it to either be obviously in best practices or above my personal ability to evaluate. Some of the index adjusting that you're referring to is empirical. House effects adjustments are based upon actual results vs. projected results of the poll across multiple election cycles. Other adjustments generally have a similarly empirical basis. Some of these are very sophisticaed. Silver had an article recently about measuring polls accuracy when they're going against the grain of conventional wisdom. As a general rule, I find it difficult to believe his model is significantly weighting non-statistically significant factors. Also, anytime you make your name in two different fields using statistical modeling at such a young age and with a high degree of accuracy in both fields my general assumption is that he's frankly better at it than I am.
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The difference an R makes.
 
Of course the electoral map is what matters - and any way you slice it, it's an uphill climb for Romney.

I doubt PA, WI, MI and Ohio are truly toss up states. Things could change; but right now Obama wins all 4 of those states. In almost any other scenario, one swing state gives him at least 270 (with the exception of NH)

My prediction last week looks more and more like it's about to come true. Romney wins the popular vote and Obama wins the Electoral vote - buckle up for that one!
 
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