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Ochai- What do we think?

Handlogten's Heros said:
Its not that we are down on him... its that we aren't high on our own supply. I honestly have zero problem with his offense and his approach. Its his defense and activity stats are embarrassingly low for an athletic "3 and D" guy. I actually liked how he played defensively last night even though he got in foul trouble. He needs to be several measures more physical if he is going to earn the 3 and D label. It should be an absolute point of emphasis for him rest of the year even if he fouls out of every game.

I just don't see him as a surefire building block yet and we have people pumping him like he's Klay lite. He is an older rookie so his development curve won't be that steep... unless he is a bit of an outlier. I think he will be solid and an nba rotation player for 10 years... that is a solid win for where he was drafted... but you might have opportunity to cash in on his perceived upside with another team. I'd probably use a future pick instead but the team we are trying to work with might prefer the player to the pick too.

With rookies if they suck their value goes in the tank after they are drafted. If they are solid their value can have this upside baked into the price... I could see Ochai developing on the defensive side and adding some things offensively... I could also see him stagnate a bit and he's kind of a replacement level 3 and lowercase d guy.
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Activity stats are overrated. Give me a guy that sticks in front of his man and makes solid help rotations over a guy that gambles all the time any day. That type of guy also is a coaches dream when it comes to team defense because gamblers constantly blow up solid team defense and make it a nightmare on their bigs.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
Its not that he's just not a stocks guy... he's a Bogey/Niang level stocks guy... rebounding is worse too... He's definitely not a lock down guy right now. So please show me some guys with this low of activity stats that are considered good defenders... good enough that you might call them 3 and D. I think he's a 3 and ? guy... and we assume the D part is there or will come... it might not.
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I didn't do much digging but these 3 came to mind.

Bruce Bowen
Raja Bell
Wes Matthews

I think Bell and Matthews are actually pretty good projections for Ochai's peak.
 
sip said:
Activity stats are overrated. Give me a guy that sticks in front of his man and makes solid help rotations over a guy that gambles all the time any day. That type of guy also is a coaches dream when it comes to team defense because gamblers constantly blow up solid team defense and make it a nightmare on their bigs.
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Steals, blocks, and rebounds are overrated? If you don't make good nba players uncomfortable they will light you up... no matter if you are in front of them or in the right position. Getting your hand on the ball is key in making players uncomfortable. It isn't the end all be all but it isn't overrated at all imo. For every "gambler" who chases stats there are probably 6-7 guys that its a good indicator that they are doing something positive on the court.
 
sip said:
I didn't do much digging but these 3 came to mind.

Bruce Bowen
Raja Bell
Wes Matthews

I think Bell and Matthews are actually pretty good projections for Ochai's peak.
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All guys with better or significantly better stocks numbers. Ochai will have to be a lot better on ball to get in those guys territories on defense. He might do it and is a better offensive player than Bowen and Bell imo. I don't know that we should assume he gets better.

Last night was overall positive imo... he needs to be less afraid of fouling and get into dudes if he is going to be a good defender that isn't a disruptor.
 
Lol we really upset that a rookie guard isn’t averaging a steal per game more? That’s the sticking point? Don’t even get me started on blocks for a guard. Jrue Holiday is one of the best defenders in the league and he’s averaging 1.5 SPG and 0.5 BPG. It’s a non-issue especially for a rookie guard.
 
Elizah Huge said:
Lol we really upset that a rookie guard isn’t averaging a steal per game more? That’s the sticking point? Don’t even get me started on blocks for a guard. Jrue Holiday is one of the best defenders in the league and he’s averaging 1.5 SPG and 0.5 BPG. It’s a non-issue especially for a rookie guard.
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I wouldn't say it's a non issue. I do agree with HH that Ochai needs to be a bit more active in these regards and it would help raise his overall defensive ability, but it isn't necessary for him to be a good defender and his current evaluation on his defensive quality is just off.
 
Elizah Huge said:
Lol we really upset that a rookie guard isn’t averaging a steal per game more? That’s the sticking point? Don’t even get me started on blocks for a guard. Jrue Holiday is one of the best defenders in the league and he’s averaging 1.5 SPG and 0.5 BPG. It’s a non-issue especially for a rookie guard.
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He's .5 steals per 36 and .4 blocks per 36... which isn't a problem but combined with 3.7 rebs per 36... Even Bogey and Niang think he should pick those items up a bit. Jrue is a lock down dude.. but even as a lock down dude he doubles up Ochai.

Its okay to be critical of a prospect or doubt that they will become some high upside all-star. Doesn't mean he's trash but yeah... its concerning. Steals, blocks, rebounds, deflections, recovering loose balls are all really low for someone considered a good defender. Eye test doesn't quite pass mustard for me either... Could it improve? It should... Could it be an indicator that his upside is not what some thing it is? If I say yes I'm a hater I guess.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
He's .5 steals per 36 and .4 blocks per 36... which isn't a problem but combined with 3.7 rebs per 36... Even Bogey and Niang think he should pick those items up a bit. Jrue is a lock down dude.. but even as a lock down dude he doubles up Ochai.

Its okay to be critical of a prospect or doubt that they will become some high upside all-star. Doesn't mean he's trash but yeah... its concerning. Steals, blocks, rebounds, deflections, recovering loose balls are all really low for someone considered a good defender. Eye test doesn't quite pass mustard for me either... Could it improve? It should... Could it be an indicator that his upside is not what some thing it is? If I say yes I'm a hater I guess.
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Who here is saying he’s going to be an all-star?
 
Elizah Huge said:
Who here is saying he’s going to be an all-star?
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I've heard Klay lite... but its really just a general valuation. If he ends up being Reggie Bullock and we have a chance to cash in his value from a GM that sees him as the next Bane (similar to how folks were talking about Grimes last offseason)... there may be an opportunity there.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
I've heard Klay lite... but its really just a general valuation. If he ends up being Reggie Bullock and we have a chance to cash in his value from a GM that sees him as the next Bane (similar to how folks were talking about Grimes last offseason)... there may be an opportunity there.
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If it’s to move up significantly, sure. If it’s to move from 17/18 to 11 or something then no thanks.
 
Elizah Huge said:
If it’s to move up significantly, sure. If it’s to move from 17/18 to 11 or something then no thanks.
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Just curious where is the tipping point for you? no judgement one way or another... that is the origin of the question and I genuinely wanted to see what people thought. I'm not here to just **** on guys (I know you know that... just saying).
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
I'm not super high on Ochai... I think he's solid and will be solid going forward. I just think his median outcome is like Courtney Lee+... maybe. If he was a 19 year old rookie I'd be a little higher on him... if his defense was better I'd be a little higher on him. He likely can take some steps forward and I am shorting him a bit.

The reason I bring this up... I wonder if Ochai's trade value would be at a point where we could sell high this summer. Say the Minny pick lands 17... if we pair Ochai with the 17th pick how high are we going to end up? Would it be worth it to jump from 17 to 8 through 10-ish? Instead of Bufkin or JHS you could take Wallace or Black. Maybe its a trade of Ochai+Philly pick to Brooklyn for DFS and their pick in the early 20s.
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I think you are too deep into talent per talent comp and you sort of forget about fit.

Hardys system values one skill over all others on offense which is perimeter shooting. Ochai is approaching the elite NBA level at that and both his shot selection and accuracy look great.

I dont think Anthony Black for instance is a gimmie to be a better player here than Ochai is, despite being more talented overall.

Also since the FO labeled him untouchable at trade DL I'm sure there is more to him than what we have seen.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
Just curious where is the tipping point for you? no judgement one way or another... that is the origin of the question and I genuinely wanted to see what people thought. I'm not here to just **** on guys (I know you know that... just saying).
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I would do 9 + Ochai for 4 if that was available. 18 + Ochai to move into the top-10 I would do as well I think. The FO would obviously really like someone in those spots if they did it so I would be good with it.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
I've heard Klay lite... but its really just a general valuation. If he ends up being Reggie Bullock and we have a chance to cash in his value from a GM that sees him as the next Bane (similar to how folks were talking about Grimes last offseason)... there may be an opportunity there.
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Lmao at you using thee Jazz fan
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
Lmao at you using thee Jazz fan
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That's one guy... but others don't put a name/label on it and just say he's going to be very good or that they are super high on what he can become. I'm medium-ish on him (with reasons) and hope he surprises me.
 
Elizah Huge said:
Lyles + 24 did get us 13 in 2017. If it was something like that where we were moving up for a specific target who we thought had a higher ceiling then I could get down with it for sure.
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Right... that's the type of thing I'm thinking. I would think a team would value the Cavs or minny future firsts over Ochai... but they may not.
 
For the record I didn’t mean to compare Agbaji to Klay just that they have similar styles. They move the ball and most of their offense is predicated by the offensive system. That’s why I called him Klay Lite. But none the less I see him as a very good to elite shooter as his career moves forward.
 
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