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On the radar: 2012 Draft Class

Hantlers said:
Watching him play against China and some scrimmages. Yes, he still has a tendency to drive recklessly into the lane and put up a stupid shot, but he's breaking that habit. He has very good ball skills, and he is a very smart player. He just has to break the habit of being a one person team like he has for several years. As for his NBA prospects, I'm still a bit hazy on that. He doesn't really have prototypical 2-guard size and I don't think he can play PG in the League. For a college player, he'll do very well. Curious as to your thoughts on the volume shooting, not trying to pick a fight, just curious on your thoughts on the stuff I said. Like I said, I'm not trying to pick a fight, but don't say things if you can't back them up....just calling it as I see it.
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I didn't go back and look, but I believe I called him a volume scorer rather than volume shooter. Though I did call his scoring inefficient so I can accept that that can easily be construed as the same. From HS, to AAU, to exhibition games, Austin has shown a killer instinct and some rather unique skill. I believe he has a definite place in the NBA and will 'get it' at Duke. I also believe it will be a struggle for him as he's been mostly babied by coaches to this point and that will definitely change with Coach K .. it will be an adjustment for sure.
 
Cyrone Torbin said:
Judging anyone by solely what they do at the HS level is dumb.
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Really? What else do you evaluate on, then? If you go back and look at the top 10 ranked players from each of the past however many years, you'll see the best talent evaluators have done a damn good job of projecting these players. I don't so much look at stats. I watch for size, skill, and intangibles ... and those are all easy to gauge regrdless of the level of competition. Defense has been the most difficult area for me to project from one level to the next, but still not all that unreliable.

A player either has legitimate size or he doesn't.
A player can handle the ball or he can't.
Pass.
Shoot.
Rebounding instincts.

All of these are fairly easy to figure. No, not really dumb at all.
 
For those interested in Rivers.

The great worry for Duke fans, and something that's already become a concern for the general basketball-watching public, is Rivers' attitude. It's difficult to tell where his sullen intensity crosses over into arrogance and unhelpful anger. Bill Raftery tiptoed around the subject on Friday. "It's all about becoming a member of a team," he said in regard to Rivers. "That's part of the process, too." He hastened to clarify that he didn't mean Rivers wasn't a team player, but the anxiety was unmistakable. Later, play-by-play man Lou Canelis quoted Coach K on the subject:

"He talked about how someone like Austin Rivers needs to learn that this isn't football," said Canelis. "That after you make a play on the offensive end, immediately you've got to be ready on the defensive end or you lose the basketball. Too many guys look up at the scoreboard, they look at the crowd, they lose focus."

https://www.grantland.com/blog/the-triangle/post/_/id/6728/austin-rivers-seth-curry-and-unforeseen-drama-at-dukes-midnight-madness
 
PKM said:
Really? What else do you evaluate on, then? If you go back and look at the top 10 ranked players from each of the past however many years, you'll see the best talent evaluators have done a damn good job of projecting these players. I don't so much look at stats. I watch for size, skill, and intangibles ... and those are all easy to gauge regrdless of the level of competition. Defense has been the most difficult area for me to project from one level to the next, but still not all that unreliable.

A player either has legitimate size or he doesn't.
A player can handle the ball or he can't.
Pass.
Shoot.
Rebounding instincts.

All of these are fairly easy to figure. No, not really dumb at all.
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I think it is for evaluating them at the pro level, which is what I thought this thread was about. Maybe you are just doing it for college, idk. I'm aware there is nothing to judge them off of other than that, but I would rather just wait until they get at least a half season of college ball before I evaluate anyone.
 
Cyrone Torbin said:
I think it is for evaluating them at the pro level, which is what I thought this thread was about. Maybe you are just doing it for college, idk. I'm aware there is nothing to judge them off of other than that, but I would rather just wait until they get at least a half season of college ball before I evaluate anyone.
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Those services are for the college level, but is also a fairly good gauge of the pro level. I know it's a tremendously bad example, but John Wall comes in as the #1 player to college and leaves, after one year, the #1 player drafted .. and for ROY was #1 from his class (sans Griffin from the year prior). Griffin is another bad, but perfect, example .. and so on. I'm not arguing any specific point, just saying that it's not all that difficult to evaluate the potential of players while they are still in high school.
 
PKM said:
Those services are for the college level, but is also a fairly good gauge of the pro level. I know it's a tremendously bad example, but John Wall comes in as the #1 player to college and leaves, after one year, the #1 player drafted .. and for ROY was #1 from his class (sans Griffin from the year prior). Griffin is another bad, but perfect, example .. and so on. I'm not arguing any specific point, just saying that it's not all that difficult to evaluate the potential of players while they are still in high school.
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Yeah, but how many bust were there back in the lat 90's/early 00's when HS players were getting drafted in the lottery. Jonathan Bender? Kwame Brown?
 
The success rate for high first-round picks taken right out of high school is pretty high. Jonathan Bender was a good prospect who got injured, but obviously players like Kobe, Lebron, KG, Jermaine O'Neal, Amare, Al Jefferson, Josh Smith (??), etc. have panned out. All were taken in the first half of the first round.
 
Catchall said:
The success rate for high first-round picks taken right out of high school is pretty high. Jonathan Bender was a good prospect who got injured, but obviously players like Kobe, Lebron, KG, Jermaine O'Neal, Amare, Al Jefferson, Josh Smith (??), etc. have panned out. All were taken in the first half of the first round.
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Yep, this. Nothing is foolproof, but I feel pretty comfortable gauging the talent to the next level(s).
 
Catchall said:
The success rate for high first-round picks taken right out of high school is pretty high. Jonathan Bender was a good prospect who got injured, but obviously players like Kobe, Lebron, KG, Jermaine O'Neal, Amare, Al Jefferson, Josh Smith (??), etc. have panned out. All were taken in the first half of the first round.
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I'm pretty bored, so I'm going to go through all the picks since 1990, lets say all top 16 picks? See how they panned out. You may be right.
 
Cyrone Torbin said:
I'm pretty bored, so I'm going to go through all the picks since 1990, lets say all top 16 picks? See how they panned out. You may be right.
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We are normally talking about players in the lottery (at least lately). I'd be curious what you find, specifically in increments of 5 ... 1-5, 6-10, 11-15 .. I realize you're not going to put that level of work into it, but it would be interesting.
 
1990 - No HS Players selected

1991- No HS Players selected

1992- No HS Players selected

1993- No HS Players selected

1994- No HS Players selected

1995- Kevin Garnett

1996- Kobe Bryant

1997- Tmac

1998- No HS players selected

1999- Jonathan Bender

2000 - Darius Miles

2001- Kwame Brown, Tyson Chandler, Eddy Curry, Desagna Diop

2002- Amare

2003- Lebron James

2004- Dwight Howard, Shaun Livingston, Robert Swift (people thought this guy was good?), Al Jefferson

2005- Martell Webster, Andrew Bynum,

Total taken: 17

HOF: Lebron James, Kobe Bryant, Dwight Howard, Kevin Garnett

Allstars: Tmac, Amare, Al Jefferson

Pretty Good: Tyson Chandler, Andrew Bynum

Meh: Martell Webster

Bust: Shaun Livingston, Robert Swift, Darius Miles, Kwame Brown, Desagna Diop, Eddy Curry, Jonathan Bender
 
Ok, interestingly enough, many of the "bust" could be attributed to horrible injury luck. Bender, Miles, and Livingston all had promising careers.
 
I also noticed, I think, 2 HS players selected #17 who are both pretty good (Josh Smith and someone else).
 
PKM said:
Thanks for looking it up. Not sure exactly what was concluded, but at least it's empirical data.
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Yeah, its hard to really make any firm answer from it. Most HS players taken though were all physical monsters. A good deal of the bust also include big men who never gained skill. I do appear to be wrong for the most part though. I thought I remembered there being much more bust from the HS picking era. I guess if you are evaluating top tier talent, accurate assumptions can be made from the HS level, as long as it's just not off of physical dominance alone? Unless you are Dwight Howard that is.
 
Cyrone Torbin said:
Yeah, its hard to really make any firm answer from it. Most HS players taken though were all physical monsters. A good deal of the bust also include big men who never gained skill. I do appear to be wrong for the most part though. I thought I remembered there being much more bust from the HS picking era. I guess if you are evaluating top tier talent, accurate assumptions can be made from the HS level, as long as it's just not off of physical dominance alone? Unless you are Dwight Howard that is.
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What year are you in at MSU? Only wondering if you ever watched Twanny Beckham.
 
PKM said:
What year are you in at MSU? Only wondering if you ever watched Twanny Beckham.
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Junior, he only got playing time my Sophmore year. Can't really say I remember too much about him. He only played in the non-conference games last year, was unspectacular.
 
Cyrone Torbin said:
Junior, he only got playing time my Sophmore year. Can't really say I remember too much about him. He only played in the non-conference games last year, was unspectacular.
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Cool. I'm anxious to see Calipari work with a non-superstar (to begin with) and see what he can do. I'm a homer, but I admit I've been incredibly impressed with his teaching skills .. not just recruiting.
 
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