HermanG
Well-Known Member
Ok I'm still bored and anxious about this season so I will make another projection thread. I came to realize that my starting 5 PPG projections are likely overblown. Either that or then we are gonna have a historically good offense this year.
Let me break this down. First and foremost, I will try to lowball everyone and intentionally go below my own previous projections, just to highlight the issue better:
Lauri scores 25 PPG at 25% usage, so around the same as last year and 3 points less than he averaged in the 2nd half of the season.
Jordan scores 20 PPG on 24% usage, so a bit less than last year with a slightly lower usage.
John scores 17 PPG on 20% usage, which is a slight increase from last year but that was unusually low usage for him and he didnt hit his 3 ball.
Walker scores 13 PPG on 13% usage, which is pretty much his per 30 from last year.
Dunn scores 10 PPG on 18% usage. I only chose Dunn because he is the one that I would project to score the least.
That makes for a grand total of 85 points... with numbers that I would argue are closer to floor than ceiling. If we look at this historically, and see how many teams have broken 85 points average per game for the starting unit:
2022-23, 3 teams: Knicks, Blazers and Celtics
2021-22, 1 team: Bucks
2020-21, 1 team: Bucks (barely, and 2nd highest was Denver with 82.8)
2019-20, 3 teams: Rockets, Blazers and Celtics
2018-19, 3 teams: Warriors, Rockets and Bucks
Now keep in mind, those teams obviously did not have their best 5 healthy all year. So their numbers are a bit lower than what they could have been.
However when we factor in the scoring we can get from the bench it gets wild. We have (in this excercise) Sexton, THT, KO, Ochai, George, Hendricks, Brice, Fontecchio.... a lot of guys capable of scoring.
So question is, are those individual numbers wrong or are we gonna end up being one of the best teams offensively? If they are wrong, then where should I give in?
Let me break this down. First and foremost, I will try to lowball everyone and intentionally go below my own previous projections, just to highlight the issue better:
Lauri scores 25 PPG at 25% usage, so around the same as last year and 3 points less than he averaged in the 2nd half of the season.
Jordan scores 20 PPG on 24% usage, so a bit less than last year with a slightly lower usage.
John scores 17 PPG on 20% usage, which is a slight increase from last year but that was unusually low usage for him and he didnt hit his 3 ball.
Walker scores 13 PPG on 13% usage, which is pretty much his per 30 from last year.
Dunn scores 10 PPG on 18% usage. I only chose Dunn because he is the one that I would project to score the least.
That makes for a grand total of 85 points... with numbers that I would argue are closer to floor than ceiling. If we look at this historically, and see how many teams have broken 85 points average per game for the starting unit:
2022-23, 3 teams: Knicks, Blazers and Celtics
2021-22, 1 team: Bucks
2020-21, 1 team: Bucks (barely, and 2nd highest was Denver with 82.8)
2019-20, 3 teams: Rockets, Blazers and Celtics
2018-19, 3 teams: Warriors, Rockets and Bucks
Now keep in mind, those teams obviously did not have their best 5 healthy all year. So their numbers are a bit lower than what they could have been.
However when we factor in the scoring we can get from the bench it gets wild. We have (in this excercise) Sexton, THT, KO, Ochai, George, Hendricks, Brice, Fontecchio.... a lot of guys capable of scoring.
So question is, are those individual numbers wrong or are we gonna end up being one of the best teams offensively? If they are wrong, then where should I give in?
