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over under on jazz 23.5. should i put the house down?

stitches said:
Just to let you know... casinos are taking notice of our pre-season play and are adjusting their money-lines. Before yesterday's game Bovada had the line at 24.5 and today it's 25.5, I expect it to rise even more before the start of the season.
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Its not that they are taking notice of how we are playing. The people placing the bets have noticed how we are playing and are heavily betting the over which is causing the casino to change the line to try and get people to start betting the under. Remember, a casino wants equal bets on either side of the line. They are also not setting the line where they think a team will actually finish, they are setting the line where they think the gambles think they will finish.
 
My other Jazz related bet was I put down $100 that Quin would win coach of the year, pays $10,000.... Worth a shot.

There are a handful of coaches that are +10,000 odds so I put down ten bucks on all of those.
 
I think there's 0.00001% chacne that Quin wins COY. Look at recent winners. ALways playoff squads that are either consistent in meeting expectations due to good coaching. The other is a team that vastly improved and played themselves into contention status.

Since the Jazz won't be in the playoffs, the overachieving aspect will go unnoticed.
 
LjJazzman said:
Yes they give proof, but not in a way I can post to a message board....

How does the house win either way? They need to have equal bets on the over and the under to guarantee they win no matter what.
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I'm certain that the casino would not be offering the bet if they weren't getting the money on the other side of the equation to cover the loss and protect their profit. Remember that they don't necessarily even have to get people to bet the under on the Jazz line in order to do this. There are only so many victories to go around the entire league for the season. I'm sure their egghead mathematicians work it out so that their is virtually no risk to the house, and a whole lot of profit due to the 30% they collect from all the losers.
 
Joe Bagadonuts said:
I'm certain that the casino would not be offering the bet if they weren't getting the money on the other side of the equation to cover the loss and protect their profit. Remember that they don't necessarily even have to get people to bet the under on the Jazz line in order to do this. There are only so many victories to go around the entire league for the season. I'm sure their egghead mathematicians work it out so that their is virtually no risk to the house, and a whole lot of profit due to the 30% they collect from all the losers.
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It's simpler than that. They slide the line far enough in either direction to even out the bets on both sides. They'd take it to 82 wins or losses if needs be. The trick is setting the initial line close enough to 50-50, then feathering the book as it comes in.
 
Joe Bagadonuts said:
I'm certain that the casino would not be offering the bet if they weren't getting the money on the other side of the equation to cover the loss and protect their profit. Remember that they don't necessarily even have to get people to bet the under on the Jazz line in order to do this. There are only so many victories to go around the entire league for the season. I'm sure their egghead mathematicians work it out so that their is virtually no risk to the house, and a whole lot of profit due to the 30% they collect from all the losers.
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You are kind of right, but not really. Not all the over/unders are -130 though. For example, the Jazz UNDER 23.5 wins is ev, meaning equal value, or equal money. So you risk $1 to win $1. And if they Jazz do hit the over then the Casino doesn't collect any of that 30% "fee", they only collect the money that the people who bet the under had, which did not have a "fee."

Some people misunderstand the 30% "fee" that isn't a fee at all. That isn't collected regardless, its only if the player loses. For example say you place two $100 bets at -130, and you win one and lose won. You'd end up $-30 total because the $30 was only collected on your one loss, not your one win. Its not complicated by any means but for people who have never bet on sports its a tiny bit confusing at first.

DutchJazzer, you are right in terms of a big casino, but not necessarily a local guy taking the action, which is what I was talking about. They are not going to have the huge volume on each side. They can easily have a lot of action heavily on one side that can either make or break them.
 
LjJazzman said:
You are kind of right, but not really. Not all the over/unders are -130 though. For example, the Jazz UNDER 23.5 wins is ev, meaning equal value, or equal money. So you risk $1 to win $1. And if they Jazz do hit the over then the Casino doesn't collect any of that 30% "fee", they only collect the money that the people who bet the under had, which did not have a "fee."

Some people misunderstand the 30% "fee" that isn't a fee at all. That isn't collected regardless, its only if the player loses. For example say you place two $100 bets at -130, and you win one and lose won. You'd end up $-30 total because the $30 was only collected on your one loss, not your one win. Its not complicated by any means but for people who have never bet on sports its a tiny bit confusing at first.

DutchJazzer, you are right in terms of a big casino, but not necessarily a local guy taking the action, which is what I was talking about. They are not going to have the huge volume on each side. They can easily have a lot of action heavily on one side that can either make or break them.
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So what happens if your bookie can't cover? How do you collect?
 
LjJazzman said:
I don't if thats the case. But its pretty small potatoes for him so i'm not worried, or else i wouldn't have placed it.
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So you're not the breaking kneecaps and snipping off fingers type?
 
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