Predict the Rudy Gobert trade

[KqWIN]

Depends on what is really on the table... the Toronto deal I am very skeptical of actually being offered. If you listen to the beat people around the Raps the OG offers being thrown out were mocked. It would also have to include Trent Jr. who is their best shooter.

Charlotte for Hayward, washington, 13 and 15 was always my favorite. If it was Rozier, 13, 15, Plumlee its okayish and likely better than the Vooch deal... if its Hayward, 13, and 15 is it better than the Bulls offer?

Atlanta I think the highest they go is Collins and Capela. That is likely the best win now option. The most current rumors are Hunter and Capela. Hunter isn't good... his numbers are okay but he's an average defender and some assume he's good... he's not. Maybe he can be.

I think it all depends on the extras in these deals. If it is straight Vooch+Williams, that ain't enough. Vooch, Williams, #18 works for me. Vooch is just a really bad fit here... you may find something else in a three team deal because I do think he has value.

Pat Williams is the best singular asset we can hope for IMO. I'd rather have him than both OG and Hunter. I don't believe Pat has Kawhi potential, but the other options aren't quite as good as they appear IMO. OG is off his rookie deal and is always injured. Hunter is much older and also always injured. Pat was obviously out last year, but a dislocated wrist is not an injury issue I'd worry about long term.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I just find it difficult to see Vuc being traded at the deadline. And if you don't trade him at the first deadline, you run the risk of losing him for nothing. Doing a S&T with an unrestricted FA is difficult. Every team thinks they can do that, but it rarely happens.

You might regret giving him one year, but at the end of the day you're just rolling over the expiring contract value one more year. It's not like we're going to use our cap space to sign players anyways. What you want to avoid is if Vuc has a good year, Don demands out, then Vuc walks for nothing. I think the first two steps are actually fairly likely. I think Vuc will have a better year next year, and Don will also demand out after a likely play in finish. In that scenario I'd much rather prefer to have Vuc with one more year left than an UFA.

In the other scenario where Vuc totally bombs and that last year looks ugly....he still has that value as an expiring contract, which is not quite as good as pure cap (would we even be below the cap?), but not the worst thing ever.

I'm very cool risking losing him for nothing... We'd have cap space. Around $20M with Mike, JC, and Royce on the books... if you moved 1 or 2 guys you are looking at max space. In the event Don leaves you rent the space out and its really valuable. You could move Vuc in that scenario via S&T to a team without space and take back a less desirable contract to get a better premium.

S&T deals are starting to come back and he's kinda the perfect candidate. Only a team trying to win would want a 32 yo center... teams in win-now mode are often over the cap... he's worth more than the MLE so likely can't be had with a cap exception.

I think the pure cap space value is quite a bit better than just an expiring contract... I think you take risk to maybe preserve a second round pick type of value. I'd only give an extension that was a super deal for us... not sure a 1 year 17.6M deal is screaming.

 

[KqWIN]

One thing to note... we likely won't receive a player that is S&T because it would hard cap us. In this scenario you are not saying that... just thought I'd mention it since we are often throwing deals around that include us getting a player who is signed and traded.

Good callout....I still think there's potential for a three team trade. Seems like Lavine wants out, the Bulls could do a lot worse than getting Gobert out of it. They could send their own assets or assets from a third team to UTA to facilitate.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Pat Williams is the best singular asset we can hope for IMO. I'd rather have him than both OG and Hunter. I don't believe Pat has Kawhi potential, but the other options aren't quite as good as they appear IMO. OG is off his rookie deal and is always injured. Hunter is much older and also always injured. Pat was obviously out last year, but a dislocated wrist is not an injury issue I'd worry about long term.

I agree... I think OG is really good and his extension is cheap and solid. I can see him getting healthy and being awesome. I think OG is kind of like a median-good outcome for Pat... but Pat still has some upside and is under team control longer. I think Hunter is tough because I think he's pretty average... he's been hurt and is extension eligible. If he won't settle for a team friendly deal then he could get spendy if he actually stayed healthy... or you might extend him at 15-20M and he stays perpetually injured and its a **** contract. I think he has so much less potential and is wildly over-rated.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Good callout....I still think there's potential for a three team trade. Seems like Lavine wants out, the Bulls could do a lot worse than getting Gobert out of it. They could send their own assets or assets from a third team to UTA to facilitate.

Agree... and I knew you knew that.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I just find it difficult to see Vuc being traded at the deadline. And if you don't trade him at the first deadline, you run the risk of losing him for nothing. Doing a S&T with an unrestricted FA is difficult. Every team thinks they can do that, but it rarely happens.

You might regret giving him one year, but at the end of the day you're just rolling over the expiring contract value one more year. It's not like we're going to use our cap space to sign players anyways. What you want to avoid is if Vuc has a good year, Don demands out, then Vuc walks for nothing. I think the first two steps are actually fairly likely. I think Vuc will have a better year next year, and Don will also demand out after a likely play in finish. In that scenario I'd much rather prefer to have Vuc with one more year left than an UFA.

In the other scenario where Vuc totally bombs and that last year looks ugly....he still has that value as an expiring contract, which is not quite as good as pure cap (would we even be below the cap?), but not the worst thing ever.

And the trade deadline deal with Vuc could be one of a couple things... either a team has an injury and gets him... or we suck and become a seller... either way I think it would be like a 3-4 seconds or late first type of value.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I could see the Bulls making a great offer... Rudy really helps them. The other deals for Williams like Jerami Grant are pretty duplicative for them. The have a couple dynamic scorers and a couple good perimeter defenders. He could really lift the ceiling of that team and would really fit the timeline.

 

[KqWIN]

I'm very cool risking losing him for nothing... We'd have cap space. Around $20M with Mike, JC, and Royce on the books... if you moved 1 or 2 guys you are looking at max space. In the event Don leaves you rent the space out and its really valuable. You could move Vuc in that scenario via S&T to a team without space and take back a less desirable contract to get a better premium.

S&T deals are starting to come back and he's kinda the perfect candidate. Only a team trying to win would want a 32 yo center... teams in win-now mode are often over the cap... he's worth more than the MLE so likely can't be had with a cap exception.

I think the pure cap space value is quite a bit better than just an expiring contract... I think you take risk to maybe preserve a second round pick type of value. I'd only give an extension that was a super deal for us... not sure a 1 year 17.6M deal is screaming.

Are they coming back? I know Derozan got to CHI that way and the Spurs ought to be really happy with what they got....but I still like my odds of getting something back out of Vuc if he's on a 1 year deal versus just having his bird rights. If there we were anyone but the Jazz, I might be with you because the Jazz are the only team guaranteed to be wanting to buy that open cap space with picks I'll have to think about it more. Vuc was in a very similar situation value/career wise as Derozan last summer. But it feels like counting on that might be hoping that lightning strikes twice.

Either way, I don't think Vuc is a totally bad addition as an asset. Whether it's just as an expiring to clear space, trade, or extend and trade the Jazz should be able to get something out of that. A competent FO would.

We get Pat, something out of Vuc, and another piece like Coby/#18....maybe add in some more of our win now pieces to milk more out of CHI. It's not the worst you can do in a bad situation.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Are they coming back? I know Derozan got to CHI that way and the Spurs ought to be really happy with what they got....but I still like my odds of getting something back out of Vuc if he's on a 1 year deal versus just having his bird rights. If there we were anyone but the Jazz, I might be with you because the Jazz are the only team guaranteed to be wanting to buy that open cap space with picks I'll have to think about it more. Vuc was in a very similar situation value/career wise as Derozan last summer. But it feels like counting on that might be hoping that lightning strikes twice.

Either way, I don't think Vuc is a totally bad addition as an asset. Whether it's just as an expiring to clear space, trade, or extend and trade the Jazz should be able to get something out of that. A competent FO would.

We get Pat, something out of Vuc, and another piece like Coby/#18....maybe add in some more of our win now pieces to milk more out of CHI. It's not the worst you can do in a bad situation.

Jimmy and Lowry were sign and trades. Dlo was a sign and trade... Rozier too I believe. There was a period were everyone had excess space so they died. There have been more last few years.

Agree... and I think Vuc could also be routed to a third team. Like Indiana may want his stability over Turner (who was unhappy and perpetually injured) maybe you mix in a Conley or Bogey/Brogdon or Hield swap to sweeten the deal? I think they will end up trying to get off of Malcolm's salary because his injury history is getting scary.

If we keep Vuc then fine. Once we trade Rudy our defense is likely a dumpster fire... Vuc will help on offense at least.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I think Markannan and Grahamn were also sign and trade moves last summer.

 

[KqWIN]

Jimmy and Lowry were sign and trades. Dlo was a sign and trade... Rozier too I believe. There was a period were everyone had excess space so they died. There have been more last few years.

Agree... and I think Vuc could also be routed to a third team. Like Indiana may want his stability over Turner (who was unhappy and perpetually injured) maybe you mix in a Conley or Bogey/Brogdon or Hield swap to sweeten the deal? I think they will end up trying to get off of Malcolm's salary because his injury history is getting scary.

If we keep Vuc then fine. Once we trade Rudy our defense is likely a dumpster fire... Vuc will help on offense at least.

Yeah a lot of ways to go about this. I don't agree with the sentiment on twitter that Vuc is some kind of non-starter or problem. We're not winning without Rudy anyways, might as well go for the 1st offense, 30th defense scenario. I could see Don leading the league in scoring playing with Vuc, Pat, Royce, someone else...I'd rather go for that than kid ourselves into thinking we can replace Gobert and everything he did for us on the court.

Capela, who is someone who would likely come back in an ATL deal, is seen as more natural fit but I think his contract is actually the one you'd worry about and could be a ticking time. With Vuc, you're probably going to find your way to a late first some way or another.

 

[KqWIN]

I think Markannan and Grahamn were also sign and trade moves last summer.

They were restricted, which is a little different, but your theory works out. The teams that will have space won't want Vuc. The teams that want Vuc likely won't have cap space. I wasn't sure if we had space or not, but if the worst case scenario is he walks and we have pure space it's not bad.