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Road woes: Are the youngsters to blame? (warning: numbers and stuff)

S

Strutter

Well-Known Member
Hey everyone, I've been a lurker for a while but I decided to register an account. I heard something on 1280 the Zone that seemed a bit off to me, so--naturally--on a very busy day I decided to spend 20 min or so on a spreadsheet to crunch the numbers. By the time I called into the Monson show, they were already speaking with Sidney Lowe about the Heat or something so they couldn't take my call. I feel like it would be a shame for no one to see it, so I'm hoping you guys will find it interesting.

Anyway. I hear over and over that "young guys struggle on the road." And while I've always thought it was a bit cliche, I can accept that in general it is probably true. However when Scott said that the young guys were a large part of our road woes, I started to think about it, and from the "eye test" it just seemed like that wasn't the case. So I made the spreadsheet.

I'm going to try and link the file with my imageshack account. If that doesn't work I'll try something else. Hope it works!

https://img839.imageshack.us/img839/1906/jazzstats.jpg
 
Masswelcomemat.jpg
 
If you play your cards right (by not posting again), your post to rep ratio will be bonkers.
 
So it looks like the bench players are more resilient than the starters. I wonder why that would be the case.
 
+/- is dependent on minutes played, so players who have played more minutes are going to potentially have greater (or lower) +/-

You need to use +/- per minute.

You can make the same argument for points scored.

If you want to make it even more accurate, make sure you use the average minutes played at home for the home numbers, and the average road minutes for the road numbers.

Plus, don't use absolute value in your differential calculations, especially since you are taking averages. + and - is very important in the average calculation.

:) Good work.
 
LunaticWolf said:
+/- is dependent on minutes played, so players who have played more minutes are going to potentially have greater (or lower) +/-

You need to use +/- per minute.

You can make the same argument for points scored.

If you want to make it even more accurate, make sure you use the average minutes played at home for the home numbers, and the average road minutes for the road numbers.

Plus, don't use absolute value in your differential calculations, especially since you are taking averages. + and - is very important in the average calculation.

:) Good work.
Click to expand...

I have to agree with you that Kanter is overrated,therefore he is just steeling away minutes from AL...

Al scored 14.1 points on 14.8 shots this month, what does this mean ? AL neeeds MORE
 
Strutter said:
Hey everyone, I've been a lurker for a while but I decided to register an account. I heard something on 1280 the Zone that seemed a bit off to me, so--naturally--on a very busy day I decided to spend 20 min or so on a spreadsheet to crunch the numbers. By the time I called into the Monson show, they were already speaking with Sidney Lowe about the Heat or something so they couldn't take my call. I feel like it would be a shame for no one to see it, so I'm hoping you guys will find it interesting.

Anyway. I hear over and over that "young guys struggle on the road." And while I've always thought it was a bit cliche, I can accept that in general it is probably true. However when Scott said that the young guys were a large part of our road woes, I started to think about it, and from the "eye test" it just seemed like that wasn't the case. So I made the spreadsheet.

I'm going to try and link the file with my imageshack account. If that doesn't work I'll try something else. Hope it works!

https://img839.imageshack.us/img839/1906/jazzstats.jpg
Click to expand...

Nice work. This just shows blaming the youngs is just another excuse for this team. They have lots of them this year, Mo's injury, young players, young coach, free agents, young players, young coach, ......
 
LunaticWolf said:
+/- is dependent on minutes played, so players who have played more minutes are going to potentially have greater (or lower) +/-

You need to use +/- per minute.

You can make the same argument for points scored.

If you want to make it even more accurate, make sure you use the average minutes played at home for the home numbers, and the average road minutes for the road numbers.

Plus, don't use absolute value in your differential calculations, especially since you are taking averages. + and - is very important in the average calculation.

:) Good work.
Click to expand...

Thanks for the tips LunaticWolf. I'm by no means a math or spreadsheet guy (English major). I wasn't really looking to prove that the young guys are betteron the road, I just wanted to show there is little statistical evidence that the young guys are the source of our road issues. I did think about the points issue, but not the +/- issue. Per minute would give me more accurate numbers, but I think it would likely just shrink the gap between the bench and the vets and not reverse anything.

Oh and I didn't want to use absolute value, but I couldn't find a "difference" function.
 
LunaticWolf said:
+/- is dependent on minutes played, so players who have played more minutes are going to potentially have greater (or lower) +/-

You need to use +/- per minute.

You can make the same argument for points scored.

If you want to make it even more accurate, make sure you use the average minutes played at home for the home numbers, and the average road minutes for the road numbers.

Plus, don't use absolute value in your differential calculations, especially since you are taking averages. + and - is very important in the average calculation.

:) Good work.
Click to expand...

Better yet, take what Luni is saying and them find out the +/- for each player based on a 36 minute average. That should make things fair, right?
 
orangello said:
Better yet, take what Luni is saying and them find out the +/- for each player based on a 36 minute average. That should make things fair, right?
Click to expand...

It'd be the same effect. Both are normalized in a ratio - Stat per minute. Whether it's 1 minute or 36 minutes the key is that everyone is normalized to the same amount of minutes played, eliminating that variable.
 
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