Say Goodbye to Victor Wem if we continue to play this good.
- Thread starter ONE LOVE
- Start date
Umm.. there is definitely a lot of merit to what he is saying.
2013/2014/2015 they ended up with 3 top-5 picks which turned into Oladipo/Gordon/Hezonja.
2017/2018 they ended up with the #6 pick both years which turned into Bamba/Isaac.
Two years in a row they made the playoffs in 2019/2020.
They then traded their best player which ended up being the best move they’ve made in over a decade.
2021 they end up with the #5 and #8 pick.
2022 they end up with the #1 pick.
For 5/6 years they ended up with top-6 picks.
They still weren’t good enough to get any higher than 7th in the conference.
Good drafting is almost more important than getting high picks unless there is a home-run prospect available.
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I mean yeah they do have one of the brightest futures in the league now but it took an entire decade of **** drafting to get there. Context matters. We don’t want to have to go through a decade of suffering to get to where Orlando is now.
We could have the worst record in the league and end up picking 3rd and then what?
To get to that point that means dealing off basically all of our starters including Lauri.
The difference between us and treadmill teams of the past is we have 15 future 1sts that we can use to get essentially the next big star that becomes available every year if we wanted to.
As usual context is lost. They drafted Oladipo and Gordon who were solid picks and Hezonja was a swing and a miss. What you leave out though is after the 2016 season they tried to jump into win now mode for some idiotic reason and traded Oladipo and the pick that was Domatas Sabonis to the thunder for Serge Ibaka who had been regressing the prior couple seasons on both ends of the court. Those type of shortsighted decisions are what turns a 3yr rebuild into a 6yr build. Obviously there are plenty of rebuild failures but most of the time it is because the front office isn't very good. With us I don't believe that is the case but only time will tell. Ainge has hit big on quite a few picks but he has a hell of a lot of stinkers mixed in in that 11-30 range. That is my biggest concern with Ainge. I have a lot of confidence in him when picking in the top 10 but he has loads of bad picks and trades where he moves a late 1st for another pick when there are high quality prospects still on the board.
I mean, there are two paths forward for the team right now.
Either
A) We continue to win, and exceeding the homery-est fans' wildest dreams , we are in serious playoff contention when the trade deadline comes around. At which point Ainge cashes in a bunch of those draft picks for a couple disgruntled stars on underperforming teams and we make a go of it.
B) The bubble pops, and we end up anywhere from awful to playoff bubble range when the trade deadline comes around. At which point, Ainge trades people like Clarkson, Markannen, Conley for more draft assets than he possibly could have gotten for them in the off season, because they've all increased their value by winning unexpectedly, and playoff teams are ready to roll the dice and take a swing at it. We then lose our way into the mid lottery range, still get a Victor ball or two, and get 3 swings in a hugely loaded draft.
Enjoy the ride, whether its real or not, its fun. Whatever happens, we've got way too many assets right now to get stuck in "OK" limbo.
Either
A) We continue to win, and exceeding the homery-est fans' wildest dreams , we are in serious playoff contention when the trade deadline comes around. At which point Ainge cashes in a bunch of those draft picks for a couple disgruntled stars on underperforming teams and we make a go of it.
B) The bubble pops, and we end up anywhere from awful to playoff bubble range when the trade deadline comes around. At which point, Ainge trades people like Clarkson, Markannen, Conley for more draft assets than he possibly could have gotten for them in the off season, because they've all increased their value by winning unexpectedly, and playoff teams are ready to roll the dice and take a swing at it. We then lose our way into the mid lottery range, still get a Victor ball or two, and get 3 swings in a hugely loaded draft.
Enjoy the ride, whether its real or not, its fun. Whatever happens, we've got way too many assets right now to get stuck in "OK" limbo.
Buddy… they weren’t going to win anything with Oladipo/Gordon/Sabonis anyways. Yes, it was a bad move in retrospect but the problem is none of the guys they drafted in the top-6 for 5 years are big difference makers. Oladipo is the only player out of those 5 that made an all-star game. The other guys are nothing but busts or role players.
Where were they headed regardless of that Ibaka deal? They were going nowhere.
Out here son’n MF’rs
Handlogten's Heros
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They had really bad lotto luck… years they moved up were drafts like the oladipo draft. They also waited to cut ties with the Fournier/Vucevic group for too long. They drafted mostly okay relative to who went right after them… but also… they are the example of when tanking or drafting high doesn’t work. Some of their pain was self inflicted… some bad luck but the draft high strategy did not work well for them.
Every path leads to failure and success… but failure is more likely… it’s hard. We might be like what the NY Knicks were two years ago… and it really doesn’t build from there and we will wish we had just tanked harder… I think we have more promise than that either way but that’s where the middle paths can lead.
I think we stay opportunistic. The guys driving our success are Lauri, JC, Vando, Kessler, Sexton Beasley all who can play roles in the future… KO and Mike obviously pitching in a ton too… those guys likely not gonna be around beyond this year. So if you end up winning 40 games it’s not the end of the world long term and maybe we get really lucky with a pick this year. If you have a chance to cash in on Mike or KO or JC then do it… but we aren’t in a position right now just to make a deal to offload talent.
Handlogten's Heros
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The other thing I have thought about.... since we canvassed the league so hard this offseason... we kind of know where everyone is and have our ear to the ground if an amazing opportunity arises. Like when Tyrese Haliburton was traded last year. I wouldn't move Vando/JC unless it was a good deal... I wouldn't move Lauri unless it was an amazing deal... I am fairly sure we will know exactly what those deals are because of how hard we have kicked the tires out there.
Like I wouldn't move Lauri... but if the Heat came to us and were offering the pick package they were going to give for Don... like you have to have a meeting right? We will know what deals are out there and DA will pull the trigger on any good/great opportunity.
Like I wouldn't move Lauri... but if the Heat came to us and were offering the pick package they were going to give for Don... like you have to have a meeting right? We will know what deals are out there and DA will pull the trigger on any good/great opportunity.
JimLes
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The problem is that people very much overestimate potential and assets. Or rather, they just assume the best case scenario. The gap one has to cross between potential and realization is so much bigger than people give it credit for.
Orlando have some talent, but who knows how that will all pan out. Injuries, development issues, personalities, salary cap, just plain luck. It all has to go exactly the way they hope for them to be contenders 5-6 years down the road.
I would disagree with "one of the brightest futures in the league." Any team with an All-NBA player under the age of let's say 27 has a brighter future than them. Phoenix, Dallas, Atlanta, Memphis, Boston, Atlanta. Throw in Milwaukee and Denver in there, their dudes are about to turn 28.
These teams have their studs. Fewer things have to go right for them in order to contend. We all know what the league is like in 2022. If you have a superstar, it's much easier to get other stars. Never mind how many pick you've got, what your cap situation is like, or how many young talents. Stars have a way of ending up where they wanna be.
Orlando have some talent, but who knows how that will all pan out. Injuries, development issues, personalities, salary cap, just plain luck. It all has to go exactly the way they hope for them to be contenders 5-6 years down the road.
I would disagree with "one of the brightest futures in the league." Any team with an All-NBA player under the age of let's say 27 has a brighter future than them. Phoenix, Dallas, Atlanta, Memphis, Boston, Atlanta. Throw in Milwaukee and Denver in there, their dudes are about to turn 28.
These teams have their studs. Fewer things have to go right for them in order to contend. We all know what the league is like in 2022. If you have a superstar, it's much easier to get other stars. Never mind how many pick you've got, what your cap situation is like, or how many young talents. Stars have a way of ending up where they wanna be.
David Hume
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Sung to the tune of American Pie by Don McLean:
We were singing, bye, bye, Victor Wemby,
Drove my Chevy to Jazz Heavy, but the Heavyweights were high
And good old boys (like Danny Ainge) we’re drinking whisky and rye
Singing “this will be the day that I die”
This will be the day that I die
We were singing, bye, bye, Victor Wemby,
Drove my Chevy to Jazz Heavy, but the Heavyweights were high
And good old boys (like Danny Ainge) we’re drinking whisky and rye
Singing “this will be the day that I die”
This will be the day that I die
fishonjazz
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Incorrect. I remember the grizzlies sitting marc gasol for the entire 4th quarter while he was destroying us. They didn't even trade him.
I think we could try to pick 3rd while still having Lauri, vando, kessler, ochai, clarkson, KO, etc.
Look, im all about the playoffs at this point but there is a danger of us not being that good and ending with the 11th pick and delaying how quickly we rebuild.
Eddie Zero
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stop it lol
that should be sung to the three little birds
" DOn't worry about no rings, every tanking org, is going to fall to 5 or 8"
No, it is correct. We are not going to sit guys like Lauri to lose games. We are not going to be anywhere near the worst record in the league either.
HeatCheck
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Lauri has only averaged playing in 56 games his first 5 seasons of his career. Definitely not wishing any injuries but there has been a pattern with him missing games.
This team isn't going to be bottom 5 bad but they could definitely be bottom 10 bad with a few 'unlucky' breaks.
fishonjazz
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Agreed. Just saying there things we COULD do but wont do.
I mean lets say we simply lose the close games we have won this year (overtimes and such).
We would be developing our guys and seeing what they can do while simultaneously getting a much better pick. We could easily be 3-6 right now and really the only difference would be that we likely get a better player out of the draft and have a better team next year.
Instead we will have a better team this year with likely no actual reward for it and then will likely have a worse player added to the team next season.
Having said all that i have alread said **** the tank and want the playoffs…… understanding that there is a good chance that wins this season make us worse next season.
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Lauri has done a great job without being the focus of the offense. I'd like to see the ball in his hands more usage for Lauri and JC a bit less. He needs to learn to be more savvy about getting to the line as well. As it stands, with the ASG in Utah, barring injury, I'd have to think he is a lock for the ASG.
HermanG
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I think the concept of tanking is absurd sportswise. It can make sense marketingwise. There are so many things that can derail a single players career, from injuries to adapting to NBA to mental toughness to lack of motivation after their bank account hits 8 figures. International players are especially risky.
Its easy to see theoretical value, but browsing the list of last 20 #1 picks does not support the notion of "whatever means necessary to get a 14% chance to land one of them".
International #1s in the past 20 years:
2018 Ayton
2016 Simmons
2015 KAT
2014 Wiggins
2013 Bennett
2006 Bargani
2005 Bogut
Even if we make a team of all those guys, it would likely be worse than what we are atm.
Its easy to see theoretical value, but browsing the list of last 20 #1 picks does not support the notion of "whatever means necessary to get a 14% chance to land one of them".
International #1s in the past 20 years:
2018 Ayton
2016 Simmons
2015 KAT
2014 Wiggins
2013 Bennett
2006 Bargani
2005 Bogut
Even if we make a team of all those guys, it would likely be worse than what we are atm.