SLC Dunk - 2024 NBA Draft player profile: Carlton Carrington

[Adam Bushman]

Carlton Carrington advances the ball for Pitt against North Carolina in the ACC Tournament | Photo by Greg Fiume/Getty Images

The Utah Jazz missed on lottery night, sliding from a projected position of #8 down to #10 as the Atlanta Hawks and Houston Rockets jumped up the board. Though this draft class doesn’t promise the high ceiling talent franchises would like to see, there’s a dearth of rotational talent; fitting that mold, we’re looking at Carlton Carrington.

Carlton Carrington is currently mocked by trusted industry sources as high as #20 (The Athletic) and as low as #39 (Sports Illustrated). His average ranking is #27.

Let’s dig in and make our own conclusion.

Photo by Justin Berl/Getty Images
“Bub” Carrington takes a Florida State defender off the dribble

Stats and Measurables​

Carlton “Bub” Carrington is a 18 year old freshman from the University of Pittsburgh. He stands at nearly 6’4” without shoes and boasts a 6’8” wingspan. He weighs 195 lbs, putting his BMI at 23.9.

Carrington projects as a combo guard on offense and defense. With decent size and some room to fill out, he’s likely to hold his own against most opposing guard line combinations. He started 33 games alongside senior guard Blake Hinson and was a positive contributor on and off ball.

Carlton was a productive freshman, averaging a per game stat line of 13.8 pts, 5.2 rbs, 4.1 ast, 0.6 stl, 0.2 blk, and 1.9 tov on 53% true shooting in 33.2 minutes.

While that stat line appears unimpressive, consider the following limitations: 1) the measures aren’t volume adjusted, 2) they show no comparison to others, and 3) they are all results focused. We’ll get into better numbers later.

Situation​

Carrington hails from Baltimore, Maryland, attending St. Frances Academy for his high school campaign. A skilled player, no doubt, who demonstrated an array of offensive skills (ball handling, shooting, driving, passing) and some defensive interest.

Despite not being ranked in ESPN’s Top 100 recruits in the 2023 class, he received a handful of D1 offers from Rutgers, DePaul, Loyola Maryland, LSU, among others. He committed to Pitt, ready to play in the ACC.

Carlton stepped into an intriguing Pitt roster. Three senior guards from the previous year exited the program, leaving opportunity for rotational minutes around program staple Blake Hinson. Right away, however, “Bub” was a key cog in the starting lineup.

In Carrington’s first game in D1 play he notched an 18 point, 12 rebound, 10 assist triple double on 75% true shooting (2 turnovers and 1 personal foul). He continued to play big minutes and start every game for the Panthers.

Carrington wasn’t always the featured scorer. In fact, over 1⁄3 of Pitt’s games “Bub” had fewer than 12 true shooting attempts. But he routinely impacted the game, both looking at the box score and watching film.

• Only four (4) games saw more turnovers than assists (never a margin greater than -2)
• Only two (2) games where his personal fouls exceeded is rebounding, steal, and block activity
• Nearly 3⁄4 of all Pitt’s games Carrington found himself at the FT line

We see varying offensive profiles throughout his game log. Against Boston College he nailed 7 threes, a good proportion of which coming off-the-dribble. Against Purdue Fort Wayne, arguably his worst showing, he went 0-7 from 3 but found a groove at the rim and in the midrange to salvage a bad night. Against Louisville Blake Hinson was red hot, so Carrington shot just 7 times, nabbed 6 boards and dished out 8 assists.

Strengths​

“Bub” appeared to really succeed in a combo guard role. He adeptly switched back and forth between on and off ball responsibilities. He created a lot of his own shots: 75% of his made FGs came unassisted. That’s in the 75%tile among guards D1 guards who played 100+ minutes.

Carlton is also a good shooter. Most process metrics indicate a little above average, but the previous note about shot difficulty and self-creation indicate they were difficult. You watch his film and there’s obvious talent in the midrange, catch and shoot, pull-up, etc.

86% of Carrington’s shots were jumpers. His 0.98 PPA was in the 66%tile. He can certainly pick his spots a bit more and take the easy opportunities more frequently, but he demonstrates the aptitude for smooth scoring.

Carrington is a very adept rebounder for a guard. His 4.7 rebounds per 30 minutes was in the 77%tile among guards. Watching film, it almost seems like the ball just arrives to him and he needn’t try very much. Perhaps some indications he could be even better.

We also cannot overlook Carlton’s passing. 24% assist rate when he’s sharing the rock with a senior guard who’s the incumbent team leader is impressive. He also kept the turnovers down, just 13% of his possessions.

The big excitement on his passing is how he generated those assists. The film showed a lot of pick and rolls where he hit the rolling big with bounce, dump down, and lob passes. He hit the weakside corners, flipped passes back to the popping pick setter, etc.

Weaknesses​

Carrington doesn’t possess many weaknesses in the sense of his game being compromised in one area compared to peers of recent drafts.

But one area that stands out as lacking is his defensive activity. Don’t get me wrong, he positions himself well on-ball and tries very hard. What I mean by activity is mucking up the opposing offense with disruptive plays.

Photo by Joe Sargent/Getty Images
Carlton Carrington defends opposing Louisville guard Mike James

He averaged just 0.72 steals + blocks per 30 minutes while having 2.2 personal fouls. That’s a -1.4 difference. Compared to other D1 guards from last year, that’s the 31%tile.

Carlton also doesn’t stand out for his off-ball movement on offense. The film I watched didn’t feature any cuts or him setting screens away from the ball. Part of this could be explained by Blake Hinson, someone who tended to operate 1-on-1 and hit an open spot-up shooter if the opportunity arose. Still, Carrington could unlock some nice stuff with greater off-ball activity.

Unknowns​

Athleticism is a bit of an unknown for Carlton. Or better said, how he’ll function in a far more athletic environment. The measures taken at the combine (lane agility, 3⁄4 court sprint, vertical leap, etc.) were all about average compared to other guards.

Some numerical indicators, like dunk and layup attempts, aren’t very helpful since Carrington rarely got to the rim. Some may put that in the weakness category, but he got to the free throw line a fair among and he has so much jump shot talent you kinda get it. When he was at the rim, his 1.09 PPA was in the 54%tile.

Again, an unknown.

Personality​

To get a feel for Carlton’s personality, consider watching these interviews where he talks about basketball, mental health, and other items important to him. Some highlights include a partnership with a mental health organization, likening his game to Dejounte Murray and Devin Booker, and more.

Conclusion​

Carlton “Bub” Carrington is an extremely well-rounded guard with few weaknesses and a smooth, comprehensive offensive game. By all accounts, he’s a serious individual with a great support system, solid character, and has demonstrated interest self-improvement.

Were things to go right in his NBA career, I would project a CJ McCollum type career. In an average scenario, I envision a career like Ayo Dosunmu or Immanuel Quickley. Were things to go wrong, I still think he’s a rotation player like Nickeil Alexander-Walker or De’Anthony Melton.

The differentiating skills for “Bub” will be growing his defensive abilities and successfully scoring in unassisted, self-generated scenarios at the next level.

Photo by Justin K. Aller/Getty Images
Carlton Carrington fades away from the Notre Dame defense.

Ultimately with every player, it’s not “if” you would or should draft them, but “when”. The idea is to intersect risk and reward to generate the highest value proposition. Given the Jazz have 3 picks and multiple avenues for changing draft position, we can analyze a lot of scenarios.

Utah should consider Carrington with their #10 pick. It’s not the best value play, since he could be available far later, but the first 9 picks could fall a certain way as to make sense here. Additionally, the poor draft quality may incentivize probability of value, not maximizing value.

The Jazz have a lot of ammo to move up should they initially pass on Carrington, though, as mentioned, some mocks and big boards indicate he’d be very much available later on. Based on the assessment today, Carrington is well worth an investment significantly earlier than the late 1st round.

The big wrinkle facing the team is the dearth of guards already on the roster. Veterans Jordan Clarkson and Kris Dunn are set to be back, with sophomores Keyonte George and Brice Sensabaugh. Carrington is a nice fit with any and all of these, but would be pressed for playing time without a shakeup.

Where would you take Carlton Carrington in the upcoming 2024 NBA Draft?

Full story from SLC Dunk...