SLC Dunk - 2024 NBA Draft player profile: Johnny Furphy

[Adam Bushman]

Johnny Furphy signals to a teammates after a made bucket against the Samford Bulldogs | Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images

Johnny Furphy’s combination of “can do a bit of everything” with size, functional athleticism, and youth may be very desirable to teams

The Conference Finals have begun and respective fan bases can smell the Finals and envision a Larry O’Brien trophy coming their way. It’s truly a special time for those franchises.

Meanwhile, the other 26 teams throughout the associate are either redirecting attention to the draft or have been doing so for weeks now. The Utah Jazz fall in the latter category; they’ve been hyper-focused for nearly two months, participating in the draft lottery (falling to 10th overall) and the NBA combine.

It’s now prospect workout season as the NBA draft is just over a month away. In that spirit, let’s take a look at a fascinating prospect from Australia via Kansas: Johnny Furphy.

Johnny is currently being mocked across industry boards around the 26th pick, but as high as #21 by CBS Sports and as low as #34 by The Ringer. This draft range aligns nicely with Utah’s late selections at #29 (via the Oklahoma City Thunder) and #32 (via the Washington Wizards).

Let’s take a comprehensive look at Furphy’s game!

Photo by Jay Biggerstaff/Getty Images
Johnny Furphy defends an opposing Baylor player late in the season

Stats and Measurables​

Johnny Furphy is a 19 year old freshman from the University of Kansas. He stands at 6’ 7.5” without shoes and possesses a 6’ 8” wingspan, 1 of only 3 players this draft class with a reported “length” measurement of sub 1 inch. He weighs 189 lbs, putting his BMI at 21.0.

I’d estimate Furphy is best suited as a wing on both offense and defense. By “wing”, I generally mean the frame of a forward but the skills of a guard and no expectation to be the lead ball handler. His size and play style should suit this positioning in the NBA.

Johnny saw an evolving role during his time as Kansas, ultimately rounding out a solid enough freshman season, averaging a per game stat line of 9.0 pts, 4.9 rbs, 1.0 ast, 0.9 stl, 0.3 blk, and 0.8 tov on 61% true shooting in 24.1 minutes.

Despite no gaudy numbers, it’s worth remember the limitations of traditional stat lines for prospects: 1) the measures aren’t volume adjusted, 2) they show no comparison to others, and 3) they are all results focused. We’ll get into better numbers later.

Situation​

Furphy is from Melbourne, Australia, where he attended the Basketball Australia Centre for Excellence. Little detail is published and accessible on his play during secondary school and the Australia-U20 Championships, but KU Athletics shared some summaries on their page. The raw numbers are devoid of sufficient detail and represent far too few games to be helpful.

Interestingly, a “Johnny Furphy” YouTube channel featured some highlights during this period of his basketball career and some from the 2023 NBA Academy Games.

Furphy went unranked in ESPN’s Top 100 recruits in the 2023 class. He did receive offers from Charleston, Providence, Marquette, and Ole Miss before committing to Kansas in August of last year.

Johnny landed at Kanses with the promise of a supplementary bench role. 3 of the previous year’s 5 starters returned, translating to Furphy playing an average of just 13 mins per game over the first 14.

But as Kevin McCullar Jr. fell injured and Elmarko Jackson’s production waned, Furphy found himself injected as a consistent starter over the final 2⁄3 of the season.

As we’d expect, all the counting numbers naturally went up as a starter, but not every area was truly positive production on a per minute basis. He shot less, scored less, was less efficient, and took fewer 3s.

However, he got to the line a lot more, increased his rebounding, assists, defensive activity (BLK + STL), and took better care of the ball. This could be a fair microcosm for what his NBA career might look like early.

Johnny is an intriguing player, aided by a complex draft with greater variance than is traditionally seen. Let’s dive into some of the specific strengths, weaknesses, and unknowns.

Strengths​

What immediately leaps off the tape from his secondary school and collegiate careers are his natural feel for the game. He just seems to know how to move as a basketball player. I’ve rated his feel for the game as pretty high.

That feel shows up in a few areas, such as movement. Johnny cuts opportunistically and does a good job of moving on the weakside as a shooter for optimal passing windows and to complicate a rotating closeout.

He’s also an adept passer. He doesn’t let the ball stick and makes very quick decisions. His passes are the obvious play but aren’t by any means simple. He’ll dump to the big over the defense, dart a pass to a cutter, and hit teammates in the open floor. His 1.2 assists per 30 mins puts him in the 70%tile among forwards and his rate of passes nudges that up into the 80%tile.

Johnny’s best strength, however, is finishing at the rim. He’s very talented, scoring in the 98%tile on dunks and layups among forwards. He was asked to be a spacer, resulting in most of his attempts being jumpers. But when he head to the rim he converted...a lot! This seems like his natural game extending back to the NBA Academy and beyond.

Weaknesses​

For being 6’ 7.5” tall, demonstrating instincts in the paint as a finisher, and having an obviously high feel of the game, he’s a surprising average rebounder. His 6.1 rebs per 30 mins put him in the 48%tile among forwards.

Optimists would argue he was used as a secondary guard and asked to space the floor, translating to few opportunities relative to other teammates. Such analysis makes sense, if you think he’s a guard. He’d have been in the 93%tile compared to other guards.

Pessimists, however, would say he’s leaving some to be desired. If he’s to succeed at the NBA level with bigger, faster, and stronger opposition, he should have been more active on the glass. Johnny himself may tend to agree with this latter perspective, as it was one of the primary areas of focus he has for himself (see interview below).

Johnny also didn’t self-create much at Kansas. In fact, that was generous; his rate of unassisted FGM was in the 4%tile among forwards (even worse when comparing to guards); in other words, he only made 16 shots that were unassisted.

His tape from the NBA Academy and secondary school, however, show him creating a lot on drives to the rim and being very successful thanks to his frame, handle, and finishing talent.

I would hedge against him ever developing a self-created jump shot but I have some hope he could create off the dribble, especially when attacking closeouts.

Unknowns​

Some may disagree, but my evaluation is that his shooting is an unknown. To be clear, not a weakness but not a strength, either. All of his jump shots I’ve observed have been catch and shoot. None off the dribble and few, if any, while moving. Additionally, the volume is low compared to other catch and shoot specialists we’ve seen.

The numbers are fine: 77% on free throws, 35% from 3 at KU. Those numbers are fairly similar pre-Kansas. The process stats appear even better: 60%tile in FTrate and 90%tile in 3PArate among forwards. Even better, his points per attempt on jump shots was 0.97, good for the 73%tile.

Additionally, comparing his form from the early tape to the highlights at Kansas show some improvement: quicker windup, less horizontal movement, and better base. He’s certainly worked on it and has remained viable at high levels.

In short, under the right circumstances, he can hit shots. I’m concerned he may not get enough volume of those right conditions to be anything better than an average shooter all the way around.

Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images
Johnny Furphy takes the ball hard to the rack against Kansas State

Another unknown is his athleticism. He’s clearly coordinated and fluid, but he appears to lack the raw traits that would translate to tremendous physical feats at the NBA level. On one hand he finishes exceptionally well at the rim; on the other hand his combine numbers in strength and agility have him consistently in the bottom 1⁄3 among forwards.

There’s definitely some defensive instincts, especially at his size against secondary guards or non-bruising forwards. But I saw a lack of processing speed and he relied heavily on recovery defense off-ball. He did seem to try hard.

He’s strong with the ball in his hand and drove to the hoop a ton pre-Kansas. How often can he do that, or will be allowed to do, in the NBA? It remains to be seen.

Personality​

Most publicized articles, videos, etc., on Johnny Furphy indicate a motivated, hard-working, self-aware individual. It strikes me as impressive his answers are often unconventional (not the boilerplate responses we’ve become accustomed to from athletes).

Take a look at this early career interview back in his Basketball Centre for Excellence days. Listen for his description of family, upbringing, style of play, aspirations, etc.

Conclusion​

Johnny Furphy is a fascinating prospect in this upcoming draft. His combination of “can do a bit of everything” with size, functional athleticism, and youth will be attractive. Against the backdrop of this year’s playoffs, the archetype of a “connector” may be very desirable to teams.

Exact NBA comps are tough with Johnny Furphy. I do think were things to go right in his NBA career, I would project him as a starter. In an average scenario, I envision a career like Kyle Anderson, one of your more important guys off the bench. Were things to go wrong, he’s likely a deep bench player.

The differentiating skills for Furphy will be 1) his ability to a defensive asset on the perimeter, 2) hit a high volume of 3s on good efficiency, and 3) operate with the ball in his hands.

Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images
Johnny Furphy pump fakes on the perimeter.

Ultimately with every player, it’s not “if” you would or should draft them, but “when”. The idea is to intersect risk and reward to generate the highest value proposition. Given the Jazz have 3 picks and multiple avenues for changing draft position, we can analyze a lot of scenarios.

With the current information, Furphy would be a reach with their #10 pick. It’s preferrable to either consider players with tremendously high floors or ceilings with an early first. Furphy doesn’t fit in either category.

However, he could be one of the best value plays at #29 or #32. As mentioned previously, I believe Furphy will impress and creep up draft boards as his current talent and potential align with what teams are seeing work in the playoffs. He could be gone by then.

Where would you take Johnny Furphy in the upcoming 2024 NBA Draft?

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