SLC Dunk - Unfinnished Business—Why Lauri Markkanen Should (Probably) Not be Traded

[Daniel West]

Chris Nicoll-USA TODAY Sports

The Big Finn is a critical piece of a future contender.

There’s an old Family Guy episode in which Peter and Lois Griffin are listening to a sales pitch from a seedy timeshare salesman, who has promised them a boat in return for their time. Not fooled by the salesman’s words, Peter says “Well look, slick, we’re not gonna buy your lousy timeshare, alright? Now where’s my boat?”

The salesman acknowledges that Peter may have the boat, but reminds him that he could choose the “Mystery Box” instead. At this, Lois urges Peter to take the boat, to which Peter replies “Not so fast, Lois. A boat’s a boat. But the mystery box could be anything! It could even be a boat! You know how much we’ve wanted one of those!

Predictably, Peter takes the box and he and Lois drive home with three tickets to a comedy club instead of a new boat.

As a neutral observer, it’s easy to conjure up fever dreams of this or that team dealing their best player for two things: Numerous draft picks or another star.

The Jazz Should Not Trade Lauri for Draft Assets​

Chris Nicoll-USA TODAY Sports

If we were to re-do the 2017 NBA draft, there are a few players who a GM would reasonably pick over Lauri (#7 pick) based on team needs: Jayson Tatum, (#3) De’Aaron Fox, (#5) Donovan Mitchell, (#13) and Bam Adebayo (#14).

However, for every Lauri Markkanen, Jayson Tatum, De’Aaron Fox, Donovan Mitchell, and Bam Adebayo there’s a Markelle Fultz, (#1) Lonzo Ball, (#2) Josh Jackson, (#4) and Jonathan Isaac (#6).

The Jazz already have draft capital in spades. Teams accumulate draft capital in hopes that they can draft a player of Markkanen’s caliber. Lauri claims to be comfortable here, which is difficult enough to come by in a star. He’s a seven-footer who can create his own shot from midrange and distance. And, perhaps more importantly, we know who he is and what he can do.

“The mystery player could be anyone. It could even be someone like Lauri Markkanen,” says Armchair GM Peter Griffin. No, rather than trade Lauri for a chance to draft someone who might be as talented as he is, the Jazz should hold onto him

The Jazz should (probably) not trade Lauri for another player​

John Jones-USA TODAY Sports

It’s popular in some Jazz circles to suggest trading Lauri for another star, such as Luka Doncic or even the aging Kevin Durant. The problem here is that, as much as I’ve maligned mystery boxes, teams not named the Los Angeles Lakers do need at least a couple of them to hit if they are to contend. Any viable trade partner is going to require not only the boat, but a couple of premium mystery boxes as well.

Would you trade a boat and a some mystery boxes (which could also be boats) for one slightly nicer boat? Likely not. In order to build properly, the Jazz need to be extremely judicious in which picks they trade and for whom. A team with Lauri as the #1 option is unlikely to win the NBA championship. But a team with him as the #2 option could be extremely dangerous. The best hope of finding that player is probably the draft.

So, who should they move and when? That deserves a post of its own, but for now suffice it to say that, no matter what machinations Danny Ainge is entertaining, vanishingly few of them should include trading our all-star.

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