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Sophomore PRABS for Kessler and Ochai

HermanG

HermanG

Well-Known Member
So I did a small excel excercise based on last year trying to estimate Kessler and Ochai PRABS going into next season. I took the games where they played most minutes (Ochai anything over 15, Kessler anything over 25), and used those as the base. That ended up with Ochai averaging 25,5 minutes which looks too high, but Kessler ended up at 30,3 which to me feels spot on.

While most of it is just pure averages from last year, I want to note I added 15% more points and 5% more to other stats, which are improvements I just arbitrary chose based on them being better integrated to the offense from day 1 and also both being more experienced now and likely improving their consistency.

So the number crunch projected them to produce these types of statlines in the 2023-24 season.

MinutesPointsReboundsAssistsStealsBlocks
Kessler
30,3​
15,1​
12,1​
1,4​
0,5​
3,4​
Ochai
25,5​
12,0​
2,7​
1,5​
0,4​
0,4​

So if they ended up producing those types of numbers, would you be happy with that? Does anyone else have their own projections they wanna throw out?

Personally, I would be really happy with Kessler producing that statline and a bit underwhelmed with Ochai (12 points is nice, but the other stats really arent for 25 mpg). I think Ochai has a higher ceiling than that, but then again he likely wont average 25 minutes per game with the backcourt situation we have right now, unless we go tank mode again and he gets lots of those 30+ minutes games.
 
SoberasHotRod said:
Do you know what % increase is normal for Sophomores?
Click to expand...
No. I tried googling it a bit to get a reference number but nothing reliable looking popped up. So i felt 5% was fair, and the extra 10% for scoring justified by the fact that they werent really incorporated to the offense much (especially Kessler, considering his minutes).

I also went to look for some references for current centers, but the minutes some of them gained 1st and 2nd year were very sporadic so I didnt think they made good comps. Gobert who is a solid comp as a defensive drop big had over 30% increase in per 36 points from his rookie year (8.6 to 11.4), then 3rd year he went backwards a bit (to 10.5) but got another 30%+ bump in his 4th year (to 14.9).
 
Adding to my previous response @SoberasHotRod, Goberts points per 36 went like this.

Year 1: 8.6
Year 2: 11.4 (32.5% increase)
Year 3: 10.4 (8.8% decrease)
Year 4: 14.9 (43.3% increase)
Year 5: 15.0 (0.6% increase)

So the average YOY increase based on rookie year stats was actually 14.9% [calculated by (15.0-8.6) : 8.6 : 5}. So at least for Gobert the average increase was pretty much what I guessed it could be for Kessler and Ochai, albeit as you can see it varied quite a bit per year.
 
Hmm. Prabs they will, prabs they won't.
 
Kessler will almost certainly take somewhat of a hit on rebounding this season playing next to Collins. Maybe not in counting stats, but probably in advanced metrics
 
As a starter Walker averages 12-10-3 on 28 mpg.

I think he probably does like 13-10-3 this year. 14 if he isn't awful at FT shooting again.

I don't really see his blocks going up too much. People tested him a lot more than your average shot blocker of his quality because he looks like a goofy white stuff, but I think he will have more respect this season.
 
I still want to know where those 30mpg will come from. It's tough to play Walker with Collins since both want to stay in the middle, and Collins will absolutely get huge minutes for this team (unfortunately).
 
Tremendous Upside said:
I still want to know where those 30mpg will come from. It's tough to play Walker with Collins since both want to stay in the middle, and Collins will absolutely get huge minutes for this team (unfortunately).
Click to expand...
Hardy said two days ago that they have spacing concepts they intend to run with those two, but didn't elaborate. Just said they will look different than what we are used to with the team.

However that was the first thing he said as an aswer to the question about new looks and roles that we are gonna see, so I'd assume thats plan A and a big focus in TC.
 
If Kessler gets around 30 minutes a game then I think 13pts, 11rbs and 2.5blks, 60%fg, 60%ft is a pretty reasonable expectation. With Ochai I think he is around 26 minutes a game and gives us 8pts, 3.5rbs and 1 steal, 44% fg and 40%3pt.
 
HermanG said:
So I did a small excel excercise based on last year trying to estimate Kessler and Ochai PRABS going into next season. I took the games where they played most minutes (Ochai anything over 15, Kessler anything over 25), and used those as the base. That ended up with Ochai averaging 25,5 minutes which looks too high, but Kessler ended up at 30,3 which to me feels spot on.

While most of it is just pure averages from last year, I want to note I added 15% more points and 5% more to other stats, which are improvements I just arbitrary chose based on them being better integrated to the offense from day 1 and also both being more experienced now and likely improving their consistency.

So the number crunch projected them to produce these types of statlines in the 2023-24 season.

MinutesPointsReboundsAssistsStealsBlocks
Kessler
30,3​
15,1​
12,1​
1,4​
0,5​
3,4​
Ochai
25,5​
12,0​
2,7​
1,5​
0,4​
0,4​

So if they ended up producing those types of numbers, would you be happy with that? Does anyone else have their own projections they wanna throw out?

Personally, I would be really happy with Kessler producing that statline and a bit underwhelmed with Ochai (12 points is nice, but the other stats really arent for 25 mpg). I think Ochai has a higher ceiling than that, but then again he likely wont average 25 minutes per game with the backcourt situation we have right now, unless we go tank mode again and he gets lots of those 30+ minutes games.
Click to expand...

I think kessler will be right around those numbers. 15, 12 and three blocks is about right imo. Prime Gobert type numbers.

Ochai needs to improve a lot from how he played last season. Kessler was already awesome last year. Ochai wasnt really (wish he would have been playing from day 1 during a tank season but whatever)


Sent from my iPad using JazzFanz mobile app
 
sip said:
If Kessler gets around 30 minutes a game then I think 13pts, 11rbs and 2.5blks, 60%fg, 60%ft is a pretty reasonable expectation. With Ochai I think he is around 26 minutes a game and gives us 8pts, 3.5rbs and 1 steal, 44% fg and 40%3pt.
Click to expand...

Yep.


Sent from my iPad using JazzFanz mobile app
 
I personally attribute a lot of Gobert and Kessler's play to Alex Jensen. He is no longer here. That could contribute to a sophomore slump for Kessler. I dont hope for it, but Jensen did a masterful job with both of our centers and the voices on the bench just changed big time.

Ochai looked terrible in summer league. We were asking him to do new things and he struggled big time. If he can't do those new things, others will be asked to and given those minutes.

Sophomore slumps are common. I smell periods of slumpage brewing.
 
The Jazz Wonderbra said:
I personally attribute a lot of Gobert and Kessler's play to Alex Jensen. He is no longer here. That could contribute to a sophomore slump for Kessler. I dont hope for it, but Jensen did a masterful job with both of our centers and the voices on the bench just changed big time.

Ochai looked terrible in summer league. We were asking him to do new things and he struggled big time. If he can't do those new things, others will be asked to and given those minutes.

Sophomore slumps are common. I smell periods of slumpage brewing.
Click to expand...
Ochai wasn't terrible in the summer league at the things he will be asked to do in the nba. He is almost strictly a 3 and D guy that will provide very little shot creation for himself or other players. That is fine though because every coach loves having a quality 3 and d guy.
 
The Jazz Wonderbra said:
I personally attribute a lot of Gobert and Kessler's play to Alex Jensen. He is no longer here. That could contribute to a sophomore slump for Kessler. I dont hope for it, but Jensen did a masterful job with both of our centers and the voices on the bench just changed big time.

Ochai looked terrible in summer league. We were asking him to do new things and he struggled big time. If he can't do those new things, others will be asked to and given those minutes.

Sophomore slumps are common. I smell periods of slumpage brewing.
Click to expand...

I don't think Ochai looked terrible, but there were some positive and negatives. On the positive side he rebounded the ball much better than what we saw last year. He was also fouling a lot, which if you look at the positive means he was being more aggressive on defense. Probably the biggest negative is that he wasn't consistently hitting open 3's like he needs to. Everything else was him just experimenting.

It's been discussed before, so I won't go too far with this, but the Sophomore slump is real in that players who exceed expectations in their rookie year often fall short of expectations in their sophomore year, but the key word here is expectations. For the most part Sophomores who had great rookie years like Kessler make small improvements, the problem is that fans expect big improvements and so they don't meet expectations which is viewed as a slump.
 
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