What's new

The Jazz have found their magic formula to build.

If the Jazz were properly motivated, they could trade up to #3 in a strong draft this year. They could then do the exact same thing next year. The champion Celtics team is built around two #3 picks in Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. If the Jazz were built around Ace Bailey and Cam Boozer, they might be on their way.

Ferguson, thy symbolic representation that stands in for your likeness now resembles an organism much younger, with more telomere life, less entropy, than the bearded, bewildered looking symbolic representation that used to encumber your profile. Why, dear Sir, the change?
 
If the Jazz were properly motivated, they could trade up to #3 in a strong draft this year. They could then do the exact same thing next year. The champion Celtics team is built around two #3 picks in Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. If the Jazz were built around Ace Bailey and Cam Boozer, they might be on their way.
The Philadelphia 76ers aren't going to give away the No. 3 pick for nothing, so they're going to take something from the Jazz. And that "something" is going to be something big, which is scary.
 
Ferguson, thy symbolic representation that stands in for your likeness now resembles an organism much younger, with more telomere life, less entropy, than the bearded, bewildered looking symbolic representation that used to encumber your profile. Why, dear Sir, the change?

I got tired of Les Grossman. I sought to adopt a new comical avatar.
 
The Philadelphia 76ers aren't going to give away the No. 3 pick for nothing, so they're going to take something from the Jazz. And that "something" is going to be something big, which is scary.

If the Jazz want, they can stay at #5. If they want back-to-back, top-3 picks they'll need to pay for it. Look at what the Cavs paid for one All Star player in Donovan Mitchell: 5 years of draft capital, an All Star-caliber player in Lauri, plus Collin Sexton and Ochai Agbaji.
 
If the Jazz want, they can stay at #5. If they want back-to-back, top-3 picks they'll need to pay for it. Look at what the Cavs paid for one All Star player in Donovan Mitchell: 5 years of draft capital, an All Star-caliber player in Lauri, plus Collin Sexton and Ochai Agbaji.
And where did the Cleveland Cavaliers go? They didn't even make it to the conference finals. They got a proven ace in the league for years in Donovan Mitchell, and they still got to the second round. If Philadelphia said, "I'll give you the third pick and Paul George, and you give me the 21st pick and Walker Kessler and Markkanen," would the Jazz take that? If the Jazz got that third pick, who would they take? Ace Bailey, VJ Edgecomb, or Tre Johnson? Would that be better for the future of the Jazz?
 
And where did the Cleveland Cavaliers go? They didn't even make it to the conference finals. They got a proven ace in the league for years in Donovan Mitchell, and they still got to the second round. If Philadelphia said, "I'll give you the third pick and Paul George, and you give me the 21st pick and Walker Kessler and Markkanen," would the Jazz take that? If the Jazz got that third pick, who would they take? Ace Bailey, VJ Edgecomb, or Tre Johnson? Would that be better for the future of the Jazz?

First of all, the Jazz wouldn't give up all that to move up 2 spots. If the Sixers asked for that, the Jazz would decline. I could see the Jazz going as far as offering #5, #21 and a player swap that saves the Sixers a some money, but this assumes that the Jazz have a strong preference for one of the three players you mentioned. Maybe the Jazz get squeezed for #5 and the '27 Lakers pick if they care enough to.

The point is, if the Jazz want to acquire an All Star-caliber prospect on rookie-scale and 6+ years of team control, it's worth paying a premium for it. This year's draft and the next one have that level of prospect through the top several picks at least.
 
That would be the second tear down over only a three-year time period. You don't think that's a bit excessive? So the thinking seems to be, "The tear down didn't work the first time, so let's tear it down again!"

If that doesn't work after three years, do we tear it down yet again? Another tear down so soon probably means at least another 3-4 years of sucking, so we're looking at 7 years or so of losing before we even compete the for playoffs again. What's the goal after this 7 years of losing?

This illustrates one of my primary critiques of tanking (especially the tear down variety); it's become the knee-jerk cure-all solution for all team building problems. It's lazy, unimaginative, and the product of stultifying group think.

It's as if no NBA front office had any idea how to build a team for the last 80 some odd years. They were all grappling in the dark absent light and knowledge from on high about the one, true team building strategy. But lo, it came to pass that the heavens opened and our minds were enlightened. Thus verily the truth has been revealed beyond a shadow of a doubt: tear it all down.
The fact that they played patty cake with it initially instead of embracing it in the first place means that they haven’t had an identity since before they traded Mitchell and Gobert. I personally HATE that they made the trade with OKC which has had them handcuffed the past 2 seasons plus now the upcoming one.

I think team-building has 3 phases - asset accumulation, asset consolidation and roster maintenance. Jazz should’ve been ready to move out of asset accumulation and into consolidation this offseason. . . except they lose their most valuable asset by doing that during two years of top-heavy drafts AND they haven’t been able to acquire another star level player to team up with Lauri since the initial tear-down phase. Tearing things down now allows them to keep their most valuable asset (2026 top 8 pick) and resets the timeline. Ideally, they would’ve identified and acquired a guy to fit with Lauri, but they haven’t done that. It feels like resetting the timeline and going back into asset accumulation mode is the best plan for the next two years while they try to identify a franchise player (or players to build around) and they can easily move into consolidation mode in 2027 after they’ve made two top 5 picks.
 
There isn't pressure from the fans though really. The Jazz sell out their home games no matter who they put out on the floor.
There’s probably only one surefire way to **** with the fan support that the Jazz have enjoyed for decades and it begins with ownership adopting the mentality that fans will put up with anything.

By the middle of last season I had the sad realization that being a Jazz fan hasn’t been fun pretty much since Ryan Smith took over. To be fair, the Rudy-Donovan relationship was already headed for disaster but I’m still waiting for a genuine highlight or high point of the Smith ownership era and thus far all we’ve got is: Rudy and Donovan die, a horribly botched rebrand, and fumbling through a clumsy and perpetual rebuild. Hell, since purchasing the Jazz he’s done a better job of rebuilding BYU basketball.

There’s obviously a ton of posters in here that get excited by talking about asset acquisition, 2031 mock drafts, and what this team could become in theory but I’m having a miserable time, which has led me to tune out. I wonder if more and more Jazz fans will start feeling the same way?
 
Do we want the Jazz to win a championship or to be playoff regulars? I think the Jazz are already at a point where it’s hard to compete for a championship. The Jazz could have challenged for a championship with a Collier-AJ-Cooper-Markkanen-Kessler lineup if they got both Cooper and AJ (or a similar prospect). But that’s impossible now. If the Jazz get the No. 5 pick in 2026, we’ll have completely abandoned their championship hopes and hope they make the playoffs more often. Long tanking isn’t the answer. Even the Philadelphia 76ers have had little success with long, orthodox tanking. The Jazz's tanking should last at least until the 2025-26 season, and then they should hope that the current prospects develop well.
It doesn't matter what we want, but what team ownership and the league wants. And what team ownership wants is to be fiscally solvent, and what the team ownership and the league want is to make as much money as possible. And the Jazz hit on that formula long ago, which is to tap into the cultish nature of the dominant social construct in the state, i.e. the mormons, and get the team a cult following, so the money flows, such as it is, regardless of the level of "success" the team reaches, at least from a fan perspective. So until fans stop coming to games, and the money starts to ebb, the team (and league in respect to the Jazz organization) will continue in the same vein: moderate success that keeps butts in the seats. They don't care about swinging for the fences, and the league doesn't care about providing the Jazz a path to better outcomes, as long as the money keep coming in, and it does so they don't.
 
Do we want the Jazz to win a championship or to be playoff regulars? I think the Jazz are already at a point where it’s hard to compete for a championship. The Jazz could have challenged for a championship with a Collier-AJ-Cooper-Markkanen-Kessler lineup if they got both Cooper and AJ (or a similar prospect). But that’s impossible now. If the Jazz get the No. 5 pick in 2026, we’ll have completely abandoned their championship hopes and hope they make the playoffs more often. Long tanking isn’t the answer. Even the Philadelphia 76ers have had little success with long, orthodox tanking. The Jazz's tanking should last at least until the 2025-26 season, and then they should hope that the current prospects develop well.
Who's the AJ you're talking about?
 
There’s probably only one surefire way to **** with the fan support that the Jazz have enjoyed for decades and it begins with ownership adopting the mentality that fans will put up with anything.

By the middle of last season I had the sad realization that being a Jazz fan hasn’t been fun pretty much since Ryan Smith took over. To be fair, the Rudy-Donovan relationship was already headed for disaster but I’m still waiting for a genuine highlight or high point of the Smith ownership era and thus far all we’ve got is: Rudy and Donovan die, a horribly botched rebrand, and fumbling through a clumsy and perpetual rebuild. Hell, since purchasing the Jazz he’s done a better job of rebuilding BYU basketball.

There’s obviously a ton of posters in here that get excited by talking about asset acquisition, 2031 mock drafts, and what this team could become in theory but I’m having a miserable time, which has led me to tune out. I wonder if more and more Jazz fans will start feeling the same way?
But ownership has had that attitude for decades. This is why they never made any striking moves really during any era of Jazz basketball. They have been content to let things ride as long as they could say they were banking on "off-season growth" and hand pads and gaining 15 lbs of muscle to reach the next level, they had no need to try any kind of swing for the fences move that might poke the fan-base in the eye. Some fans want the homestar runner type move, but most just want to have a fun night out and say they are Jazz fans and feel like they are part of a secondary cult in addition to their primary cult. The same fans that will tell people they don't do any shopping or spend any money on Sundays, until a vendor at work offers box seats to a meaningless mid-season Sunday game at the Delta Center, which they attend enthusiastically, stating well, THEY didn't spend the money, the vendor did, and just buying popcorn and a soda doesn't really count, right? This is why they have no impetus to push for anything big to get the franchise in a position to win it all, since it is all so safe and secure and profitable as it stands. Add into this the fact that the league benefits a ton more with a Dallas/Spurs/Sixers top 3 draft positions than they do a Jazz/Charlotte/Washington trio, and we will never get the top picks necessary to build from the draft for real. So the fan base is content having their Sunday night game for "free" and believing their fervent prayers were answered when we happen to hit on a mid- or late-first-round draft pick who bucks the trend, ala Mitchell and Gobert, which is likely to happen often enough to keep the spending fan-base in tow.
 
But ownership has had that attitude for decades. This is why they never made any striking moves really during any era of Jazz basketball. They have been content to let things ride as long as they could say they were banking on "off-season growth" and hand pads and gaining 15 lbs of muscle to reach the next level, they had no need to try any kind of swing for the fences move that might poke the fan-base in the eye. Some fans want the homestar runner type move, but most just want to have a fun night out and say they are Jazz fans and feel like they are part of a secondary cult in addition to their primary cult. The same fans that will tell people they don't do any shopping or spend any money on Sundays, until a vendor at work offers box seats to a meaningless mid-season Sunday game at the Delta Center, which they attend enthusiastically, stating well, THEY didn't spend the money, the vendor did, and just buying popcorn and a soda doesn't really count, right? This is why they have no impetus to push for anything big to get the franchise in a position to win it all, since it is all so safe and secure and profitable as it stands. Add into this the fact that the league benefits a ton more with a Dallas/Spurs/Sixers top 3 draft positions than they do a Jazz/Charlotte/Washington trio, and we will never get the top picks necessary to build from the draft for real. So the fan base is content having their Sunday night game for "free" and believing their fervent prayers were answered when we happen to hit on a mid- or late-first-round draft pick who bucks the trend, ala Mitchell and Gobert, which is likely to happen often enough to keep the spending fan-base in tow.
Sadly, I can’t argue with any of this.
 
The fact that they played patty cake with it initially instead of embracing it in the first place means that they haven’t had an identity since before they traded Mitchell and Gobert. I personally HATE that they made the trade with OKC which has had them handcuffed the past 2 seasons plus now the upcoming one.

I think team-building has 3 phases - asset accumulation, asset consolidation and roster maintenance. Jazz should’ve been ready to move out of asset accumulation and into consolidation this offseason. . . except they lose their most valuable asset by doing that during two years of top-heavy drafts AND they haven’t been able to acquire another star level player to team up with Lauri since the initial tear-down phase. Tearing things down now allows them to keep their most valuable asset (2026 top 8 pick) and resets the timeline. Ideally, they would’ve identified and acquired a guy to fit with Lauri, but they haven’t done that. It feels like resetting the timeline and going back into asset accumulation mode is the best plan for the next two years while they try to identify a franchise player (or players to build around) and they can easily move into consolidation mode in 2027 after they’ve made two top 5 picks.
You realize that this quite feasibly means an indeterminate period of multiple years of non-competitive, non-playoff basketball? As I previously indicated, it's not unlikely that this stretches to 7 years (more or less) all told. You're willing to endure that for WHAT, precisely? What's the payoff you would expect for such an extended period of misery? An NBA title? Consistent deep playoff runs (i.e., minimum consistent second round, but as we're seeing with Cleveland, it's unlikely that would be considered acceptable). (NBA title and consistent deep playoff runs are the expectations explicitly cited by the Jazz FO.) For how many years? At least 7 (or the equivalent of the tank), right? What's the likelihood of seven sustained years of deep playoff runs? The Jazz have never managed that since the Stockton-Malone days. What are the odds that failure to deliver 7 consecutive years of deep playoff runs (which is the more likely scenario) will lead to renewed calls to "tear it down?"

It also assumes the Jazz beat the odds in the lottery, both by "winning" the lottery and that the guy they pick turns out to be THE guy. The only thing that's close to a certainty in this strategy you've laid out is the extended years of misery. Everything else is a gamble, hinging to a large degree on, literally, winning the lottery.

So, I'm curious, what's the limit you're willing to accept in terms of years of losing and what's minimum payoff you'd expect to make it worthwhile? What's the likelihood of achieving this minimum payoff?

As an aside, whatever emotional satisfaction winning a title brings is very fleeting. I'd guess that were the Jazz ever to win a title, the venn diagram of the championship or bust crowd and those who grumble and bitch and issue demands to fire so-and-so, trade so-and-so, or tear it down the very second things go even the slightest bit sidewise post championship is a nearly perfect circle. All those years of grief, anxiety, anger, outrage, impatience to win a title and the elation, emotional high, and satisfaction it brings will turn sour in a nano-second. Was it really worth it?
 
You realize that this quite feasibly means an indeterminate period of multiple years of non-competitive, non-playoff basketball? As I previously indicated, it's not unlikely that this stretches to 7 years (more or less) all told. You're willing to endure that for WHAT, precisely? What's the payoff you would expect for such an extended period of misery? An NBA title? Consistent deep playoff runs (i.e., minimum consistent second round, but as we're seeing with Cleveland, it's unlikely that would be considered acceptable). (NBA title and consistent deep playoff runs are the expectations explicitly cited by the Jazz FO.) For how many years? At least 7 (or the equivalent of the tank), right? What's the likelihood of seven sustained years of deep playoff runs? The Jazz have never managed that since the Stockton-Malone days. What are the odds that failure to deliver 7 consecutive years of deep playoff runs (which is the more likely scenario) will lead to renewed calls to "tear it down?"

It also assumes the Jazz beat the odds in the lottery, both by "winning" the lottery and that the guy they pick turns out to be THE guy. The only thing that's close to a certainty in this strategy you've laid out is the extended years of misery. Everything else is a gamble, hinging to a large degree on, literally, winning the lottery.

So, I'm curious, what's the limit you're willing to accept in terms of years of losing and what's minimum payoff you'd expect to make it worthwhile? What's the likelihood of achieving this minimum payoff?

As an aside, whatever emotional satisfaction winning a title brings is very fleeting. I'd guess that were the Jazz ever to win a title, the venn diagram of the championship or bust crowd and those who grumble and bitch and issue demands to fire so-and-so, trade so-and-so, or tear it down the very second things go even the slightest bit sidewise post championship is a nearly perfect circle. All those years of grief, anxiety, anger, outrage, impatience to win a title and the elation, emotional high, and satisfaction it brings will turn sour in a nano-second. Was it really worth it?
I’d never suggest that my method is perfect, only just one way of doing things. I honestly don’t think the Jazz are even that terrible right now. If they weren’t deliberately trying to lose, I think they could easily flip their position and at least make the play-in round.

They chose a stupid route for the past three seasons and have little to show for it. I don’t think it would take 7 years to claw back out of mediocrity and at least contend for the playoffs. IF they hit on their picks (one or more) then they should be that much further along.

They SHOULD have been in a position to trade out their expiring contracts and future picks for a disgruntled star or promising young player, but that window just never opened. My suggestion pushes it out 2 more years. Tank this season, get your pick and then start churning the roster and adding vets to support your young guys. . . or take a shot on getting 1 or 2 stars from teams that need to cut costs when you have new expiring contracts and (hopefully) some promising young players.
 
I’d never suggest that my method is perfect, only just one way of doing things. I honestly don’t think the Jazz are even that terrible right now. If they weren’t deliberately trying to lose, I think they could easily flip their position and at least make the play-in round.

They chose a stupid route for the past three seasons and have little to show for it. I don’t think it would take 7 years to claw back out of mediocrity and at least contend for the playoffs. IF they hit on their picks (one or more) then they should be that much further along.

They SHOULD have been in a position to trade out their expiring contracts and future picks for a disgruntled star or promising young player, but that window just never opened. My suggestion pushes it out 2 more years. Tank this season, get your pick and then start churning the roster and adding vets to support your young guys. . . or take a shot on getting 1 or 2 stars from teams that need to cut costs when you have new expiring contracts and (hopefully) some promising young players.
Well said.
 
But ownership has had that attitude for decades. This is why they never made any striking moves really during any era of Jazz basketball. They have been content to let things ride as long as they could say they were banking on "off-season growth" and hand pads and gaining 15 lbs of muscle to reach the next level, they had no need to try any kind of swing for the fences move that might poke the fan-base in the eye. Some fans want the homestar runner type move, but most just want to have a fun night out and say they are Jazz fans and feel like they are part of a secondary cult in addition to their primary cult. The same fans that will tell people they don't do any shopping or spend any money on Sundays, until a vendor at work offers box seats to a meaningless mid-season Sunday game at the Delta Center, which they attend enthusiastically, stating well, THEY didn't spend the money, the vendor did, and just buying popcorn and a soda doesn't really count, right? This is why they have no impetus to push for anything big to get the franchise in a position to win it all, since it is all so safe and secure and profitable as it stands. Add into this the fact that the league benefits a ton more with a Dallas/Spurs/Sixers top 3 draft positions than they do a Jazz/Charlotte/Washington trio, and we will never get the top picks necessary to build from the draft for real. So the fan base is content having their Sunday night game for "free" and believing their fervent prayers were answered when we happen to hit on a mid- or late-first-round draft pick who bucks the trend, ala Mitchell and Gobert, which is likely to happen often enough to keep the spending fan-base in tow.
I'd argue instead that most fans want to watch competitive, meaningful basketball over an 82 games season with hope of making a deep post-season run. Basketball is an entertainment product, and people who consume it want to be entertained. It's true that the Jazz continue to sell out games, but for those of us buying tickets on the secondary market, the tickets in the last few years have generally sold at a significant discount over previous years. I went to several games last year with decent upper bowl seats (Row 7 and below) for as little as $15. There's no way in hell I would have paid the $40+ I paid in previous years for the same seats. I assume my experience was generalized among the secondary ticket market leading me to conclude that the sold out arena pro-tankers like to cite is a bit of a mirage. I imagine that TV and streaming ratings were down last year, though that's to be confirmed.

In any case, I'm guessing that championship or bust fans (i.e., those willing to endure 5-7 years of misery for a moderately elevated, though still small, chance of winning a title) comprise a relatively small slice of the fanbase, although 100% of the FO. I further suspect that I'm part of a large majority of Jazz fans that prioritize the entertainment aspect of fandom over any kind of title-winning obsession. We'd all like to win a title, but if we don't, we were entertained and life goes on.
 
I'd argue instead that most fans want to watch competitive, meaningful basketball over an 82 games season with hope of making a deep post-season run. Basketball is an entertainment product, and people who consume it want to be entertained. It's true that the Jazz continue to sell out games, but for those of us buying tickets on the secondary market, the tickets in the last few years have generally sold at a significant discount over previous years. I went to several games last year with decent upper bowl seats (Row 7 and below) for as little as $15. There's no way in hell I would have paid the $40+ I paid in previous years for the same seats. I assume my experience was generalized among the secondary ticket market leading me to conclude that the sold out arena pro-tankers like to cite is a bit of a mirage. I imagine that TV and streaming ratings were down last year, though that's to be confirmed.

In any case, I'm guessing that championship or bust fans (i.e., those willing to endure 5-7 years of misery for a moderately elevated, though still small, chance of winning a title) comprise a relatively small slice of the fanbase, although 100% of the FO and perhaps the majority of posters on online fan forums. I further suspect that I'm part of a large majority of Jazz fans that prioritize the entertainment aspect of fandom over any kind of title-winning obsession. We'd all like to win a title, but if we don't, we were entertained and life goes on.
 
yep i have no interest in watching Collins, Sexton and Clarkson. At all I'm happy to watch young talented dudes struggle learning

I think some of them stays if they can't sell Lauri with the price Danny hopes for. They can't be trading all the other vets while keeping Lauri, bc it most probably means there's only a low change of his value going up on becoming season vs. increased chance of the value of that asset getting worse again... If he's there with rookie deal guys only.
 
Back
Top