It was posted to Facebook, but will need a translation:
There are quite a few summaries, but I could not access the full article either….
The over 2,000-word report said that Russia's forces have 'no options to victory, only defeat' as they continue to meet strong Ukrainian resistance.
www.dailymail.co.uk
Edit: I was able to translate all of the statement, but having great difficulty pasting it here.
OK, this is the translation I got:
18+ One of the insiders from the special services of the Russian Federation, I will publish without edits and censorship, because it's hell: "I'll be honest: I almost haven't slept all these days, almost all the time at work, it floats a little in my head like in a fog. And from overwork, sometimes I already catch a state, as if it's not all real.
Honestly, Pandora's box is open - a real global horror will begin by summer - global hunger is inevitable (Russia and Ukraine were the main suppliers of grain in the world, this year the harvest will be less, and logistical problems will bring the catastrophe to its peak).
I can't tell you what you were guided by at the top when deciding on the operation, but now all the dogs are methodically lowered on us (the Service). We are scolded for analytics - it's very good for my profile, so I'll explain what's wrong.
Recently, we have been increasingly clamped to adjust reports to the requirements of management - I somehow touched upon this topic. All these political consultants, politicians and their retinue, influence teams - all this created chaos. Strong.
Most importantly, no one knew that there would be such a war, it was hidden from everyone. And here's an example: you are asked (conditionally) to calculate the possibility of human rights protection in different conditions, including a meteor shower attack on prisons. You specify about meteorites, you are told - it's true, reinsurance for calculations, nothing like that will happen. You understand that the report will be only for a tick, but you need to write in a victorious style so that there are no questions, they say, why you have so many problems, did you really work badly. In general, there is a report that when a meteorite falls, we have everything to eliminate the consequences, we are great, everything is fine. And concentrate on tasks that are real - we already don't have enough strength. And then suddenly they really throw meteorites and expect that everything will be according to your analytics, which was written from ********.
That's why we have a total **** - I don't even want to pick up another word. There is no defense against sanctions for the same reason: well, it is quite possible that Nabiullina will be sewed negligence (rather, to the switchmen from her team), but what are they to blame for? No one knew that there would be such a war, so no one was preparing for such sanctions. This is the flip side of secrecy: since no one was told, who could calculate what no one told about?
Kadyrov flies off the coils. Also, the conflict almost began with us: perhaps even the Ukrainians threw in the deza that it was us who handed over the routes of the Kadyrov special forces in the first days of the operation. They were covered there on the march in the most terrible way, they have not yet started fighting, and they were simply torn apart in some places. And let's go: it was the FSB that leaked the routes to Ukrainians. I do not have such information, I will leave 1-2% for reliability (it is impossible to exclude it either).
The Blitz crig failed. It is simply impossible to complete the task now: if Zelensky and the authorities were captured in the first 1-3 days, all key buildings in Kiev were seized, they would be allowed to read out the order for surrender - yes, the resistance would have been set to minimum values. Theoretically. But what's next? Even with this ideal option, there was an unsolvable problem: with whom to negotiate? If you demolish Zelensky, it's good, with whom to sign the agreements? If with Zelensky, then after his demolition by us, these papers cost nothing. OPZH refused to cooperate: Medvedchuk is a coward, escaped. There is a second leader there - Boyko, but he refuses to work with us - they won't even understand his own. They wanted to return Tsarev, so even ours, pro-Russians, tuned against us against him. Shall I return Yanukovych? And how? If we say that it is impossible to occupy, then any of our authorities there will be interrupted in 10 minutes as we leave. To occupy? And where will we get so many people? Commandant's offices, military police, counterintelligence, security - even with minimal resistance from locals, we need 500 thousand or more people. Not counting the supply system. And there is a rule that by overlapping the quantity of poor quality of control, you only spoil everything. And this, I repeat, would be with an ideal option that doesn't exist.
And what now? We cannot announce mobilization for two reasons:
1) Large-scale mobilization will undermine the situation within the country: political, economic, social.
2) Our logistics is overstressed today. Let's drive a multiply larger contingent, and what do we get? Ukraine is a hefty country. And now the level of hatred for us is off the charts. Our roads simply will not pull such supply caravans by capacity - everything will stall. And we can't pull it out managerially - because it's chaos.
And we have these two reasons at the same time, although even one is enough to break everything.
By losses: I don't know how many of them. Nobody knows. The first two days there was still control, now no one knows what's going on there. Large units can be lost from communication. They can be found, or they can dissolve because of being attacked. And there even commanders may not know how many they run somewhere nearby, how many died, how many are in captivity. The dead are definitely counting thousands. Maybe 10 thousand, maybe 5, or maybe only 2. Even the headquarters doesn't know that for sure. But it should be closer to 10. And we don't count the LDPR corps now - it has its own accounting.
Now, even if you kill Zelensky, take him prisoner, nothing will change. There's Chechnya in terms of hatred for us. And now even those who were loyal to us are against it. Because we planned upstairs, because we were told that there would be no such option unless we were attacked. Because they explained that it is necessary to create the most reliable threat in order to negotiate peacefully on the right terms. Because we initially prepared protests within Ukraine against Zelensky. Excluding our direct entry. Invasions, if it's easier.
Further civilian losses will go exponentially - and resistance to us will also only increase. Infantry has already tried to enter the cities - out of twenty landing groups, only one had a conditional success. Remember the assault on Mosul - it's the rule, that's how all countries had, nothing new.
To keep it under siege? According to the experience of military conflicts in the same Europe in recent decades (Serbia here is the largest testing ground of experience), cities may be under siege for years, and even function. Humanitarian convoys from Europe there are a matter of time.
We have a conditional deadline until June. Conditional - because in June we have no economy left, nothing remains. By and large, a fracture in one direction will begin next week, simply because the situation cannot be in such overstrain. There are no analysts - you can't calculate the chaos, no one can say anything for sure. Act intuitively, and even on emotions - but it's not poker for you. The stakes will increase, in the hope that suddenly some option will shoot. The trouble is that we can also calculate now and lose everything in one turn.
By and large, the country has no way out. There's just no option for a possible victory, and defeat is everything, we've come at all. 100% repeated the beginning of the last century, when they decided to kick weak Japan and get a quick victory, then it turned out that there was trouble and trouble with the army. then they started the war until the victorious end, then they began to take the Bolsheviks for "re-education" into the army - they were marginals, uninteresting to anyone in the And then the unknown Bolsheviks really picked up anti-war slogans and such a thing happened to them...
Of the advantages: we did everything so that even a hint of mass sending of "penalties" to the front line did not pass. Send convicts and "socially unreliable", political (so that water is not calamutized within the country) - the morale of the army will simply go into the red. And the enemy is motivated, monstrously motivated. He can fight, there are enough middle-level commanders there. There are weapons. They have support. We will simply set a precedent for human losses in the world. And that's it.
What we are most afraid of: at the top they act according to the rule of overlapping the old problem with a new problem. In many ways, for this reason, the Donbass of 2014 began - it was necessary to divert the attention of Westerners from the topic of the Russian spring in Crimea, so the Donbass crisis seemed to attract all attention and become the subject of bargaining. But even bigger problems began there. Then they decided to push Erdogan on 4 pipes of the South Stream and entered Syria - this is after Suleimani gave deliberately false introductions to solve his problems. As a result, it was not possible to close the issue with Crimea, there are also problems with Donbass, the South Stream shrinked to 2 pipes, and Syria hung with another smut (let's go out - Assad will be demolished, which will make us idiots, but it is difficult and useless to sit).
I don't know who invented the "Ukrainian blitz crig." If we were given real introductions, we would at least indicate that the original plan is controversial, that a lot needs to be double-checked. A lot. Now we've climbed into **** somewhere around our neck. And it's not clear what to do. "Denazification" and "demilitarization" are not analytical categories, because they do not have clearly formed parameters by which you can determine the level of completion or non-fulfillment of the task.
Now it remains to wait for some f******adviser to convince the top to start a conflict with Europe demanding to reduce some sanctions. Either reduce, or war. What if they refuse? Now I do not rule out that then we will get involved in a real international conflict, like Hitler in 1939. And then our Z will be equalized with a swastika.
Is there a possibility of a local nuclear strike? Yes. Not for military purposes (it won't give anything - it's a weapon of breaking through defense), but in order to intimidate others. At the same time, the ground is being prepared to turn everything to Ukraine - Naryshkin and his SVR are now digging the ground to prove that they secretly created nuclear weapons there. ****, they are now pounding by what we have long studied and disassembled: it is impossible to draw evidence on the knee here, and the presence of specialists and uranium (Ukraine is full of depleted isotope 238) is about nothing. There's such a production cycle that you can't do it imperceptibly. You can't even make a "dirty" bomb unnoticed, and the fact that their old nuclear power plants can produce weapons-grade plutonium (stations such as EW-1000 give it in minimal quantities as a "by-product" of the reaction) - so there the Americans introduced such control with the connection of the IAEA, that sucking the topic is stupid.
Do you know what will start in a week? Well, even in two. We will be so covered now that we will start to miss the hungry 90s. While the auction was closing, Nabiullina seems to be taking normal steps - but it's all like plugging a hole in the dam with her finger. It will still break through, and even stronger. Nothing will be solved in 3, 5, or 10 days.
Kadyrov beats his hoof for a reason - they have their own adventures there. He created the image of the most influential and invincible. And if it falls once, it will be demolished by their own. He will no longer be the owner of the winning tape.
Let's go. Syria. "The guys will hold out, everything will end in Ukraine - and there in Syria we will strengthen everything in positions again." And now at any time they can wait for the contingent to deplete resources - and such heat will go... Turkey blocks the straits - carrying supplies there by planes is like heating a stove with money.
Note - all this happens at the same time, we don't even have time to put everything together. We have a position like Germany in the 43-44th. At the start right away. Sometimes I'm already lost from this overwork, sometimes it seems that everything happened and it was a dream that everything was like before.
By the way, it will be worse in prisons. Now the nuts will start tightening so that they reach a bloody mother-in-law. Everywhere. To be honest, purely technically, this remains the only chance to keep the situation - we are already in total mobilization mode. But you can't be in this mode for a long time, and we have ambiguity with deadlines and will only get worse so far. Management always strays from mobilization. And imagine: you can run a hundred meters in a jerk, and it's bad to go to the marathon distance and give a breakthrough with all your strength. So we rushed with the Ukrainian question like a hundred meters, and fit into the marathon on rough terrain.
And I told you very, very briefly about what was happening.
From the cynical, I will only add that I do not believe that BB Putin will press the red button to destroy the whole world.
First of all, more than one person makes a decision there, at least someone will jump off. And there are a lot of people there - there is no "single red button."
Secondly, there are some doubts that everything is functioning successfully there. Experience shows that the higher transparency and control, the easier it is to identify shortcomings. And where it is not clear who controls and how, but always bravura reports - everything is always wrong there. I'm not sure if the red button system is functioning according to the stated data. In addition, the plutonium charge should be changed every 10 years.
Thirdly, and this is the most disgusting and sad, personally I do not believe in the willingness to sacrifice a person who is neither members of the Federation Council, but does not allow his closest representatives and ministers close to him. Because of fear of coronavirus or attack, it doesn't matter. If you are afraid to let the most trusted in, how will you decide to destroy yourself and your loved ones inclusive?
If anything, ask, but I may not answer for several days. We're in emergency mode, and there are more and more tasks.
In general, our reports are cheerful, but everything flies to pi_du."
Never before has this source of Gulagu.net swear, wrote briefly and to the point. But now even he...
