I did some thinking and research on the topic of "which high level players could be available" before or during the 2025 offseason, focusing on the teams and ignoring the FA markets that seem to be pretty dead with the current CBA. I tried to account for teams likely plans and their own draft picks status to determine who could blow it up. Of course there is no way to accurately predict stuff like this, but there are plenty of teams who have very little motivation to pivot in the next 16 or so months. The conclusion is that there are not many teams who are likely to do it, and quite a lot of teams who are almost guaranteed to not do it. My team by team assessment is at the end of the post.
Add to that the fact that there will be teams that are needy who wont get their guy this offseason as the markets are already dry from top tier talent. According to one report, 20+ teams called to inquire about Lauri. That gives a nice picture about how many teams are either buyers or at least considering to be buyers.
So by my analysis and assessment, it feels like the markets in 2025 may end up being even crazier. There are few teams who can provide the starving buyers some relief if things dont go their way in 2024-25 season, but no matter who falls down the standings there will still be way way too many hungry mouths to feed.
That leads to two conclusions:
- The era of "big game hunting" is likely over. This is literally like one of the worst times in the history of the league to be chasing big names.
- Lauri will likely get traded. Everyone knows DA will deal anyone for the right offer, and sooner or later desperation is gonna make someone stupid.
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Here is my more detailed team by team analysis:
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In Atlantic division Celtics, Knicks and Sixers will be in win-now mode regardless. For the other teams:
- Nets: Sellers but dont have star level parts unless someone pops (not sure if they would trade, if someone did)
- Raptors: Likely gonna show they have some high level pieces, but they are so young they are all likely untouchable
In Central division Bucks, Pacers and Cavs are either totally committed to win now, or at least very committed to building up. The others:
- Bulls: Have pieces but no one seems to want them. And if some of their guys pop, they wont trade them but ride them into the sunset.
- Pistons: Have some more or less theoretical pieces, but are desperate to get them working themselves. Could also reboot the rebuild f they get another stinker season.
In the Southeast things are a bit more murky:
- Hawks: Have parts, but dont own their draft, so likely not gonna blow it up unless they strike a deal with the Spurs and get their picks back. Could happen if they have a bad season.
- Hornets: Same boat as Raptors
- Heat: Does not own their 2025 and 2027 picks, and blowing it up isnt in their DNA.
- Magic: Young team on the build up, not gonna trade away high level pieces
- Wizards: Dont really have many high level pieces, but could trade guys like Kuzma and Poole if either or both have a good season in 2024-25
In the Northwest Nuggets, Wolves and Thunder are 100% committed.
- Blazers are probably sellers despite their recent moves, but its highly unlikely they would give up any budding stars... and certainly not proven ones.
- Jazz: we all know the drill here
In Pacific division, Clippers and Suns are completely committed to winning while Kings, Warriors and Lakers are all unlikely to blow it up for different reasons. Warriors feel like the most likely team to pivot. If Kings have a bad season they will most likely just be more desperate next offseason.
In Southwest division Mavericks are 100% committed to win-now
- Grizzlies should be in it to win it but the roller coaster they have been on has been wild, and I dont want to predict anything related to them
- Spurs and Rockets are not gonna trade away high level pieces (unless they get high level pieces back)
- Pelicans could be a wild card seller emerging if they endure a very bad season
Add to that the fact that there will be teams that are needy who wont get their guy this offseason as the markets are already dry from top tier talent. According to one report, 20+ teams called to inquire about Lauri. That gives a nice picture about how many teams are either buyers or at least considering to be buyers.
So by my analysis and assessment, it feels like the markets in 2025 may end up being even crazier. There are few teams who can provide the starving buyers some relief if things dont go their way in 2024-25 season, but no matter who falls down the standings there will still be way way too many hungry mouths to feed.
That leads to two conclusions:
- The era of "big game hunting" is likely over. This is literally like one of the worst times in the history of the league to be chasing big names.
- Lauri will likely get traded. Everyone knows DA will deal anyone for the right offer, and sooner or later desperation is gonna make someone stupid.
====================================================
Here is my more detailed team by team analysis:
====================================================
In Atlantic division Celtics, Knicks and Sixers will be in win-now mode regardless. For the other teams:
- Nets: Sellers but dont have star level parts unless someone pops (not sure if they would trade, if someone did)
- Raptors: Likely gonna show they have some high level pieces, but they are so young they are all likely untouchable
In Central division Bucks, Pacers and Cavs are either totally committed to win now, or at least very committed to building up. The others:
- Bulls: Have pieces but no one seems to want them. And if some of their guys pop, they wont trade them but ride them into the sunset.
- Pistons: Have some more or less theoretical pieces, but are desperate to get them working themselves. Could also reboot the rebuild f they get another stinker season.
In the Southeast things are a bit more murky:
- Hawks: Have parts, but dont own their draft, so likely not gonna blow it up unless they strike a deal with the Spurs and get their picks back. Could happen if they have a bad season.
- Hornets: Same boat as Raptors
- Heat: Does not own their 2025 and 2027 picks, and blowing it up isnt in their DNA.
- Magic: Young team on the build up, not gonna trade away high level pieces
- Wizards: Dont really have many high level pieces, but could trade guys like Kuzma and Poole if either or both have a good season in 2024-25
In the Northwest Nuggets, Wolves and Thunder are 100% committed.
- Blazers are probably sellers despite their recent moves, but its highly unlikely they would give up any budding stars... and certainly not proven ones.
- Jazz: we all know the drill here
In Pacific division, Clippers and Suns are completely committed to winning while Kings, Warriors and Lakers are all unlikely to blow it up for different reasons. Warriors feel like the most likely team to pivot. If Kings have a bad season they will most likely just be more desperate next offseason.
In Southwest division Mavericks are 100% committed to win-now
- Grizzlies should be in it to win it but the roller coaster they have been on has been wild, and I dont want to predict anything related to them
- Spurs and Rockets are not gonna trade away high level pieces (unless they get high level pieces back)
- Pelicans could be a wild card seller emerging if they endure a very bad season
