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TMZ reports that Kobe Bryant passed away.

You clearly no clue about what it takes to make it to that level. My kid is 11 years old. He's in 5th grade. He has private coaching two weekday mornings per week before going to elementary school, has two hours every day after school during weekdays with his club team, and competes on roughly half of all weekends year round. He's in fifth grade and he'll top 500 hours of professionally coached practice this year in his main sport, and he's been working at his main sport for years already.

To get to the NBA or equivalent requires in the neighborhood of 10,000 hours of coached practice. It is built from years of mornings and nights and weekends and traveling and sacrifice and frustration and pushing limits. Losers are losers because they're lazy. Losers only delude themselves into thinking their losing is due to luck so they can stand looking at themselves in the mirror.
Whoosh

Yes of the .001% of the population born with the potential to play pro sports only the .001% of them have the combination of luck and hard work to actually make it there.

There was no amount of hard work my 5'8" short armed self could have done to make it into the NBA.
 
You clearly no clue about what it takes to make it to that level. My kid is 11 years old. He's in 5th grade. He has private coaching two weekday mornings per week before going to elementary school, has two hours every day after school during weekdays with his club team, and competes on roughly half of all weekends year round. He's in fifth grade and he'll top 500 hours of professionally coached practice this year in his main sport, and he's been working at his main sport for years already.

To get to the NBA or equivalent requires in the neighborhood of 10,000 hours of coached practice. It is built from years of mornings and nights and weekends and traveling and sacrifice and frustration and pushing limits. Losers are losers because they're lazy. Losers only delude themselves into thinking their losing is due to luck so they can stand looking at themselves in the mirror.

I could've put 50000 hours in and it wouldn't have made me play in the NBA. The hours your kid puts in have no bearing on whether he makes it or not. Genome does.

Is it basketball we're talking about?

Well, let's start. First, you need to be born in a specific country. India has 15% of the world's population and is yet to produce an NBA player. I'm not going to do the exact math here, but if feels like more than half the world's population is automatically excluded. You gotta be born in the USA or one of a handful European countries, or you have to move to these places before you're 15 or so. Does your kid satisfy this requirement? It's because of luck.

I can't recall the last time a player under 6 feet was drafted in the first round. The average NBA player is 6'6. The average American male is about 5'10 and the average male globally is shorter than even that. You have to be that height without incurring other issues that come with it. You can't just be 7 feet tall because of some pituitary tumor, and your frame has to be able to support your weight and height. Most 6'6 people aren't all that coordinated, so you have to win another lottery to be coordinated like a 6 footer. Remember that for the first 50 years of its existence, basketball was not a tall man's game. For a reason.

You talk about professionally coached practice. That costs money. Unless your kid was a child movie star, they don't have their own money at 11. Certainly not that kind. Are they lucky enough to have parents who do? That's another layer of fortune you have to add here.

Come the **** on. I know you're a right winger who is still somehow on this 16th century Calvinist kick of success-comes-from-hard-work and failure-comes-from-lack thereof(or a moral flaw in general), but I know even you're not this naive. We're not quite at that point yet, but science will improve over the next 50 years to the point where you'll be able to look at every newborn in the country and decide immediately with great confidence which one of them has any chance in hell making it to the NBA.

Zion Williamson's contract is non-guaranteed because he just can't stay away from sugary soda and big-bootied pornstars but hey, he's clearly worked harder than me at being a basketball player. And I, clearly, have failed at becoming an NBA player or a professional footballer or the greatest guitar player of all time because I'm a loser and I'm lazy. Despite putting in probably 10000 hours into each one of those between the ages of 10 and 30, at the expense of things like laying big-bootied pornstars.
 
Zion Williamson's contract is non-guaranteed because he just can't stay away from sugary soda and big-bootied pornstars but hey, he's clearly worked harder than me at being a basketball player. And I, clearly, have failed at becoming an NBA player or a professional footballer or the greatest guitar player of all time because I'm a loser and I'm lazy. Despite putting in probably 10000 hours into each one of those between the ages of 10 and 30, at the expense of things like laying big-bootied pornstars.
Did Zion win the genetic lottery? Sure. He also worked hard to get to this level of play. Sometimes players get the first big contract and let themselves go.

Muggsy Bogues was 5'3", drafted 12th overall and had a 14-season career in the NBA.
Bogues was an incredible athlete, and born with that potential. Thousands of people who follow your kid's schedule never make it to the NBA.

You're both being exceptionally dense.
 
Did Zion win the genetic lottery? Sure. He also worked hard to get to this level of play. Sometimes players get the first big contract and let themselves go.


Bogues was an incredible athlete, and born with that potential. Thousands of people who follow your kid's schedule never make it to the NBA.

You're both being exceptionally dense.
Hard work is not enough. Natural talent is not enough. Luck is not enough. You need a combination of all 3 of those (plus other elements, which can, in large part, be distilled into the Luck category) in order to have success at the level of a LeBron, or Paul McCartney, or Steven King, or whoever you want to talk about in that stratosphere. And if it's the business world specifically, you can probably remove the natural talent part of that equation.
 
LOL, sure you did.

Ok, let's do the math. I'm 40. I picked up guitar when I was 12. I still play at least half an hour a day. Probably more like an hour. I'm noodling on it right now as I type this. I did this much more in high school and university. Probably 2-3 hours a day. When my little sister and I would watch reruns of the Simpsons or Fresh Prince, I would run over to my room to play guitar every commercial break. It use to vex my mother greatly. There are more than 7000 days in 20 years.

Did I mention that before I picked up the guitar, I was in music school for 3-4 years? Not private lessons, a legitimate European-style music academy I attended parallel to my elementary school. Theory, piano and choir. About 5 hours a week altogether. It ended when the war started because both my teachers left town as they were of the wrong ethnicity and didn't feel like waiting around to find out just how badly their lives would be in danger.

I grew up and lived until I was 14 in a war-torn place in Europe. My city was only really shelled at the beginning and the end of a 4-year war. Between that time, it was okay. The war was going on 30 miles away, but we no longer had air raid sirens like at the start. We all lived in small apartments you usually had 3 generations living under the same roof in. 500 square feet place was a big deal. Your dad was a director of a state company, perhaps. Mine was a high school teacher. He also went off to war and wouldn't come back permanently for 3 years. My mother was 31 and worried sick. Her nerves never really recovered. She sat around in the afternoons just dreading the ringing of the phone because, you know, it might not be a great phone call. It was a depressing atmosphere. Small apartment and a sense of impending doom.

School isn't a fancy daycare in Europe. It's not a place to keep you while your parents are at work. In grade 4, I had school for 3.5 hours a day. In grade 8, it was still only 5. I'd be home at 1pm. My school was a 3 minute walk from our apartment. You'd spend the next 8-9 hours outside, playing sports. What else would you do? There were power shortages on account of war, and even when there weren't, you had state TV in all its two-channel glory. There's a war going on, so guess what occupies most of the day's programming. Guess what you also don't care to watch when you're a kid?

In the summer, there was no school. I'd be outside from the time I got up and had a snack until it was time to go to bed. I had a 10:30 curfew when I was 10. Seems ludicrous now. Again, our parents had other worries. Your mum would call you from the window to come for dinner and you'd do your best to inhale it and run outside. As you got older, you'd manage to convince her to just tie a string around a plastic bag and lower a sandwich in it from your 3rd floor window. So as to not waste time. The kids who were lucky enough to live in a main-floor apartment just had the food passed through the window.

I moved to Canada at 14. I was the weird foreign kid at my public school. I'd have probably been better off at the Jewish day school, but that thing cost as much a University in annual tuition. No matter anyway, it'd only have been for a year. There's no Jewish high school in the city. I didn't have a lot of friends and my parents had no money for any extracurriculars. The friends I had were football and basketball mad like me. We'd come home from school and kick the ball around behind our apartment building. Or we'd go to my sister's elementary and shoot hoops. I was going to be the first person to play in both the NBA and the Premier League. Like Bo Jackson. Score goals for Liverpool and dish out dimes for the Jazz.

The winter is long and brutal in Calgary. Again, there was no money for a YMCA membership or any other membership that would have allowed me to practice indoors. My friend's dad was the super of our building and I would borrow a snow shovel from him and take it to the playground and clear just enough around the hoop to be able to rebound my own misses. I'd come home and if my parents and sister had gone out, I had to sit in the little atrium of the apartment building because my hands would be too cold and frozen and I didn't have the strength to turn the key to get in. I'd put my hands on the heater and then sit on them until the strength returned.

Did I mention that I gave no crap about school or grades whatsoever? I did maybe 10 hours worth of homework from grade 6 to grade 12. I'm an English teacher and I love telling my students how I had a grade of 14% in grade 10 English. Yeah, I had 5-6 hours after school every day to do things I loved. Shocking, I know! Where are the parents in all this? At war or working 3 jobs each. Take your pick. My dad used to get up at 3:30 to deliver papers, come back and nap, then go to college because his masters degree from Europe was worthless here. Then he'd come back, make us food and go deliver pizza from 4pm to 8pm. This is 21st century we're talking about, and he'd make 2 bucks plus tip per delivery.

So again, get the **** out of here with your WASP privilege and your kids whose dad pays(!) for them to play sports. No, I didn't fail to become the next John Stockton or Robbie Fowler or Jimmy Page because I'm a lazy loser. I failed because I wasn't lucky enough to be blessed by genetics. Or to a smaller degree, because my daddy didn't pay for me to get professional coaching. Whatever the **** that means. I thought professional coaches coached professional athletes.
 
What's the saying? In the short run it's all about luck. In the long run there's no such thing as luck.
 
Did Zion win the genetic lottery? Sure. He also worked hard to get to this level of play. Sometimes players get the first big contract and let themselves go.

Ok, let's do this again. If a player is born with all the talent Zion has(which isn't just more than 99.999999% of the society, but 99% of the NBA), and he even remotely bothers to play basketball as a kid, even if he hates it as much as Greg Ostertag, what is the likelihood of him never making a dime off basketball? Ignoring other stuff like injuries, if he just goes with the flow, how likely is it that Zion never gets past high school basketball?
 
Thousands of people who follow your kid's schedule never make it to the NBA.
That is absolutely true. My kid won't make it to the NBA. My kid doesn't play basketball, but I get your point. Success at the highest levels is not assured even with a ton of work. Genetics play a role but that my kid being ideally built to be elite in his main sport isn't luck. I knew his body type and picked his sport with that in mind. Living in an area where year-round club sport is possible also isn't luck. I chose where we live. That I can afford the $20k per year in coaching, travel, equipment, tournament fees, etc., isn't luck either. There is a ton of planning and execution that has gone in to every aspect. He works hard. I work hard. My wife works hard. JimLes's attitude that all you need is a level of effort no greater than installing a computer fan one morning along with fate to chose that life for you is stupid.
 
That is absolutely true. My kid won't make it to the NBA. My kid doesn't play basketball, but I get your point. Success at the highest levels is not assured even with a ton of work. Genetics play a role but that my kid being ideally built to be elite in his main sport isn't luck. I knew his body type and picked his sport with that in mind. Living in an area where year-round club sport is possible also isn't luck. I chose where we live. That I can afford the $20k per year in coaching, travel, equipment, tournament fees, etc., isn't luck either. There is a ton of planning and execution that has gone in to every aspect. He works hard. I work hard. My wife works hard. JimLes's attitude that all you need is a level of effort no greater than installing a computer fan one morning along with fate to chose that life for you is stupid.
It isn't luck for you that you can afford the coaching but it is for your kid.
 
That is absolutely true. My kid won't make it to the NBA. My kid doesn't play basketball, but I get your point. Success at the highest levels is not assured even with a ton of work. Genetics play a role but that my kid being ideally built to be elite in his main sport isn't luck. I knew his body type and picked his sport with that in mind. Living in an area where year-round club sport is possible also isn't luck. I chose where we live. That I can afford the $20k per year in coaching, travel, equipment, tournament fees, etc., isn't luck either. There is a ton of planning and execution that has gone in to every aspect. He works hard. I work hard. My wife works hard. JimLes's attitude that all you need is a level of effort no greater than installing a computer fan one morning along with fate to chose that life for you is stupid.
You and JimLes are both right. Why is it one or the other?

You are right in that we do need to work extremely hard, and smart and use our resources for a very long time to have a chance at the highest levels. Work hard to be ready for the opportunity.

That’s where JimLes’s point comes in though. You could plan better, have more talent, work harder, and still not quite make it. Giannis’s brothers worked hard too, and wouldn’t have made the cut if they weren’t lucky enough to be his brothers. Tbh there are politics and who knows who at all levels of competitive sports. I see it in Utah competitive soccer too at the youth levels. It’s not just work hard. It’s also, work the system, schmooze, get lucky with timing talk to the right people, get in a good group, etc.

If you don’t work hard you won’t be ready to capitalize on whatever opportunity comes your way, if it does. But it takes a fair share of “luck”, or things breaking your way to even have a door open up in the first place.

There are some unlucky life situations no amount of additional luck or hard work can compensate for. Very few shorter than 6’ people can stick in the NBA. Hard work can only improve athleticism so much. People’s life situation is just luck too. Most people don’t have a family/money situation to start a kids career when they are 5.

There are also gifted individuals that find their sport late, but are so athletic and talented they can’t be kept from the highest levels. They don’t fit this 10,000 hours idea at all. Lucky.

Hard work can’t turn you into a LeBron. My internal debate is if it can turn you into a Messi. I still say no, but I’m less confident in my answer. Messi is so skilled, and talented. Can it be learned? 85% no

This convo is a convoluted mess that is a mix between both hard work and luck in life, or whatever you want to call it.
 
Tbh there are politics and who knows who at all levels of competitive sports. I see it in Utah competitive soccer too at the youth levels. It’s not just work hard. It’s also, work the system, schmooze, get lucky with timing talk to the right people, get in a good group, etc.
Competitive soccer in Utah is the same world, but you reeled off a list of things that aren’t chance. Schmoozing and working the system are things you proactively do. The timing in talking to the right people usually comes down to identifying the right people and putting yourself into a position to talk to them. Getting in with a good group is also something you proactively work towards.

JimLes is making excuses. He attributes not being Jimmy Page due to not being lucky with genetics. Unlucky JimLes attended a European music academy for 3-4 years, had a father live through three years of being a soldier in war and moved their family from a poor Balkan town to wealthy Canada when he was in Middle School. From there, JimLes put in his usual 14% effort, noodled on the guitar, and blamed it on luck that no one showed up to his house to award him with fame and fortune.

Meanwhile in England young Jimmy Page was pestering everyone he could pester to play on records as a session musician. Page’s parents weren’t rich or connected. It was Jimmy’s dogged persistence that resulted in his playing with dozens of bands until he finally fell in with the Yard Birds. When that band broke up, Jimmy Page worked hard to find the closest thing he could to a clone of Roger Daltrey and he proactively built Led Zeppelin. It wasn’t only playing the guitar Jimmy Page worked hard at. It was working the system, schmoozing, positioning himself to talk to the right people, getting in a good group, etc. No one went to unknown Jimmy Page’s house to award him fame and fortune.

Show me someone who says success is nothing but luck and I’ll show you someone who puts in 14% effort.

ps JimLes = Jimmy Page + Les Paul?
 
Hard work can’t turn you into a LeBron. My internal debate is if it can turn you into a Messi. I still say no, but I’m less confident in my answer. Messi is so skilled, and talented. Can it be learned? 85% no

Messi is five-foot-seven with a low centre of gravity. His dribbling wizardry is almost exclusively restricted to people under 6 feet. You're unlikely to be Messi at 6 foot 3. He is also naturally left footed in a right footed world.
 
Competitive soccer in Utah is the same world, but you reeled off a list of things that aren’t chance. Schmoozing and working the system are things you proactively do. The timing in talking to the right people usually comes down to identifying the right people and putting yourself into a position to talk to them. Getting in with a good group is also something you proactively work towards.

JimLes is making excuses. He attributes not being Jimmy Page due to not being lucky with genetics. Unlucky JimLes attended a European music academy for 3-4 years, had a father live through three years of being a soldier in war and moved their family from a poor Balkan town to wealthy Canada when he was in Middle School. From there, JimLes put in his usual 14% effort, noodled on the guitar, and blamed it on luck that no one showed up to his house to award him with fame and fortune.

Meanwhile in England young Jimmy Page was pestering everyone he could pester to play on records as a session musician. Page’s parents weren’t rich or connected. It was Jimmy’s dogged persistence that resulted in his playing with dozens of bands until he finally fell in with the Yard Birds. When that band broke up, Jimmy Page worked hard to find the closest thing he could to a clone of Roger Daltrey and he proactively built Led Zeppelin. It wasn’t only playing the guitar Jimmy Page worked hard at. It was working the system, schmoozing, positioning himself to talk to the right people, getting in a good group, etc. No one went to unknown Jimmy Page’s house to award him fame and fortune.

Show me someone who says success is nothing but luck and I’ll show you someone who puts in 14% effort.

ps JimLes = Jimmy Page + Les Paul?
You read him wrong. Did he ever say “just” luck.

Also schmoozing, working the system, and all that aren’t all work and workable too. Plenty of people try it but get in the wrong group that doesn’t work out. Bad luck, hard work. Some people schmooze people but those people fall out of power. Bad luck, time to schmooze someone else? Sure you have to identify the right people, but you also have to have the opportunity. Not everyone gets the opportunity and hard/smart work doesn’t get it for you all the time. It can help you capitalize, but plenty of people work hard and smart and fail at their dream, and that’s fine. I hope they learned a ton about themselves in the journey and see it as a success in another way.

It’s not just work.

You are working hard to paint JimLes as lazy. I don’t know him but I’ll say I don’t agree with that take and say you misunderstand the essence of what he’s saying.

You don’t know JimLes. You don’t know Jimmy Page. Maybe someone did go to his house to award him fame and he said no, I want no luck… I want to work hard for this. Please don’t introduce me to people. Next time, tell it that way.
 
From there, JimLes put in his usual 14% effort, noodled on the guitar, and blamed it on luck that no one showed up to his house to award him with fame and fortune.

Hey, that's unfair. I also troweled through boxes of old blues records like Jimmy Page, looking for riffs to steal and dead black men to rob of their intellectual rights. You know how much time, money and effort that took?

P.S. The secret is to take the riffs and licks and play them backwards. That way no one can tell.
 
Messi is five-foot-seven with a low centre of gravity. His dribbling wizardry is almost exclusively restricted to people under 6 feet. You're unlikely to be Messi at 6 foot 3. He is also naturally left footed in a right footed world.
There are so many more Messi wannabe’s than LeBron wannabe’s but none can replicate it. The height, yea. The skill, no. The guy is a wizard. Even at 5’7, try to be Messi. Impossible.
 
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