Ukraine/Russia and Farming Subsidies

[leftyjace]

So… I have done no research and I’m typing this off of the top of my head just because the thought occurred to me.

I know there are large “tracts of land!” in the United States where farmers are incentivized through subsidies to NOT grow anything. I also know that many seem to be concerned about Russian grain no longer being on the market due to Putin’s War.

Is it safe to say that, we, the United States, have the arable land and infrastructure in place this growing season to simply pick up and supply the world with grain where Russia cannot?

 

[gandalfe]

My thoughts based on a 2 minute Google search:

The USDA basically rents land to leave it fallow for environmental reasons. While reducing that amount might be a possibility, it wouldn't be quick in any sense - the gov't has leases, so the land needs to be left for X amount of time - be it a few more months, or years, I don't know the terms of the deals. Also, even once the land is officially arable again, it takes time to grow anything, time during which the farmers who have been getting rent payments won't be getting anything.

The amount that the USDA pays farmers was also just raised last year, in an attempt to increase the amount of land preserved, so they would need to lower it again to get those lands off the program, to make it so that it makes more sense for farmers to actually farm the land.

 

[leftyjace]

So we have the land, but not necessarily the infrastructure nor the legal infrastructure that would allow planting for this years growing season. Got it.

 

[gandalfe]

So we have the land, but not necessarily the infrastructure nor the legal infrastructure that would allow planting for this years growing season. Got it.

We're coming up on planting season for lots of things right now, I think (not a farmer). So I don't know if there would even be time to convert for this season. So, we wait and see what it's like in a couple of months. And I think that most of the damage Putin is doing in Ukraine is in urban areas, not farmland, so they might still be able to get the harvest out.

 

[leftyjace]

We're coming up on planting season for lots of things right now, I think (not a farmer). So I don't know if there would even be time to convert for this season. So, we wait and see what it's like in a couple of months. And I think that most of the damage Putin is doing in Ukraine is in urban areas, not farmland, so they might still be able to get the harvest out.

My thinking is that many countries are banning energy imports from Russia. It may not be a far stretch to have them ban grain imports as well. I was theorizing from the perspective of a reduction in supply.