What's new

US Economy

Well they do say that money is the root of all evil, so you have a point. But greed is an unavoidible capitalistic evil.

The American Dream is a sham and as much of a pyramid scheme as any of the Utah County MLM companies.

The rich get richer off the backs of those who chase the dream.

Frankly, I don't give a rip what the Bible says, I love life; I love my life, and I hope my children love their lives, and their children, and their children. I understand what that quote is getting at, but really, it's a dumb way of looking at the world.

Unfortunately automation is killing the middle class which makes the seperation of the classes an ever growing chasm. The economy will never be as healthy as it was.

Finding happiness in this life is not the key to a recovering economy anyhow, and imo is not the key to life itself. The Bible teaches to NOT love your life. John 12:25 - "Anyone who loves thier life will lose it, while anyone who hates thier life in this world will keep it for eternal life."

Wow, this is a pretty pessimistic view of things.

Greed is a universal human trait; it doesn't need capitalism to make it come to life. It exists everywhere from the tribal lands of the most backward parts of Afghanistan to Wall St.

You have no idea whatsoever that the economy 'will never be as good as it was.' So, if this nation exists another, say, 1,000 years, it'll never enjoy another period of economic prosperity?

I don't give a rip what the Bible says. I love life, and I hope my children love life, and their children, and their children. While I get what this Bible quote is trying to say, I think it's a pretty non-productive and unfulfilling way to look at and live life. (But then, I don't take my marching orders from Iron age sheep herder cultures in any case.)
 
Forgive me, but isn't it quite common for those, with excess, to devote much of that excess to pursuing dreams?
How many rich people buy jet planes because they've always wanted to fly?
How many rich people put a recording studio in their basement and generate quality music because they finally can afford the tools to do so?
How many rich people retire early to open wineries, write books, go on service trips or missions, travel, etc.?

I would argue that part of the reason people WANT excess is so they can use it to pursue their dreams. It's much easier to try and fail if you have a solid foundation of income than it is to try and fail when all your eggs are in that single basket.

Regardless, I wouldn't say people are working so hard for excess without a purpose. They have something in mind for that money, obviously. You make it sound like "excess" is a bad thing. I don't agree.

I don't see an answer to my question.

Nor did I ever, at any given point, say there should be a hard cap on what any one person makes. Just that happiness with ones self can increase productivity and optimism. Which are both exceedingly good for the economy.

So adding a general better understanding of what happiness is, and at what point you can be happy and content without more money, is good for the economy. And there's a cheap, non-invasive way to do it; instill it into our children. The basics, along with a sense of security, I feel would make a better community as a whole. But that's just a byproduct of the root, which is the understanding that money != happiness.

And then there are those, like me, who along the way find a career that is immensely satisfying, and highly enjoyable. Is what I'm doing now my idealistic dream? No. But it sure makes it possible for me to still participate in dream activities.
For what it's worth dude, we're the same person. First I wanted to be a doctor. Then I realized I cringe when hearing someone cry out in pain. Then I wanted to be a marine biologist, but realized there's no money in that unless you're in the top .2%. Then a cook, but same thing. Then a mortician, because it's a steady business.

On my way to one of these, I paid for myself by working as a phone jockey for a call center. Sharpened my skills, got promotions, jumped to better companies until I landed with the one I'm at now. Got promoted off the HelpDesk and into Medical Records Software analysis. Now, I've come as close to full circle as I can. I manage decision support, which consists of the alerts that come up for a providers when s/he's doing something potentially dangerous for the patient, and managing physician training and understanding of why those alerts exist. There's more to it than that, but knowing I had a hand in caring for the patient, and in some cases preventing death from physician ignorance, is overwhelmingly satsifying.
 
jimmy eat jazz Wow, this is a pretty pessimistic view of things.

Greed is a universal human trait; it doesn't need capitalism to make it come to life. It exists everywhere from the tribal lands of the most backward parts of Afghanistan to Wall St.

Yeah, that's why I said that money is the root of all evil.

You have no idea whatsoever that the economy 'will never be as good as it was.' So, if this nation exists another, say, 1,000 years, it'll never enjoy another period of economic prosperity?

Okay...the economy AS WE KNOW IT, will never be as healthy as it has been. Unless some cold fusion pipe dream revolutionizes this countrie's this economy, it is doomed. That's not pessimism, that's reality. Middle class jobs will continue to be eliminated and replaced by temp and part time workers with no benifits. If you see a reversal in this encompassing trend, please contribute.

I don't give a rip what the Bible says. I love life, and I hope my children love life, and their children, and their children. While I get what this Bible quote is trying to say, I think it's a pretty non-productive and unfulfilling way to look at and live life. (But then, I don't take my marching orders from Iron age sheep herder cultures in any case.)

It's your choice to not give a rip about the Bible, but what do you think the economic future holds for your kids and thier kids?
 
I don't see an answer to my question.

Probably because I wasn't sure how your question applied to the argument. Let me try again.

And you don't think starting with something small, inexpensive, and low cost like putting happiness over the need for excess, can have an effect on the economy long term?

Honestly? Since we're headed down the social argument path and not the economic path, I'm going to say that your question is not logical, and here's why.

I believe that the opportunity is there for people to pursue things that will bring them the most happiness. I believe that if there's anyplace where being temporarily set back or financially dormant (due to trying hard to achieve ones dreams) is something that can be recovered from, it's here. I don't think that all of these "unhappy" people are not pursuing their dreams and aspirations because of a lack of opportunity.

People choose to be where they are. They either choose it because they actively pursued the path they're on, or they passively avoided the discomfort and risk from pursuing another path.

But regardless... I'm just not sure I agree with your premise. I tried to say that in my response. Let me see if I can explain it another way.

I don't believe people just simply work for "excess". I believe they ARE pursuing happiness as they see it by doing so. I think that there are some limited cases where people are doing it simply to increase the score (read: net worth), yes. But I think the vast majority of the time, people are working their butts off, trying to generate excess so they can use that excess to pursue the very dreams that you believe they're abandoning by working hard to get excess.

So in my mind, your question is circular.

Regarding your vision of the entire world being able to only do those things that will bring them the most joy and happiness... I still say that would be extremely damaging to the economy at this stage of our societal development. Maybe later on, that would be cool, especially if we're able to increase automation to the point where all want and hunger is eliminated from the world, and people have no concerns about the lower levels of Maslow's heirarchy of needs. But right now, vacating people that see themselves as "unhappy" or "unfulfilled" from millions of jobs that are basically the backbone of our economy would have a devastating affect. And it would be a temporary affect... because after all of these people get frustrated with pursuing those dreams and not having it pan out financially enough to sustain themselves (again, supply and demand - an overabundance of supply creates a relative lack of demand, and a lack of opportunity for people to actually be able to subsist on an income derived from that activity), they would find themselves migrating back to those very jobs they vacated - because demand would then have increased for people to fill those essential roles, and those roles would allow them to subsist and meet those basic needs according to Maslow's heirarchy.

I'll say it again. I think you're argument is noble. But it's also incredibly overly-idealistic, and doesn't take into account the way the world works. There is no economic structure on the planet that would allow all people to do what it is you're espousing all at once. And I honestly don't see what the problem is. If people wanted to pursue their dreams hard enough, they would. If there's anyplace that can be done it's here. The problem is a lot less one of opportunity and more one of the basic need of human beings to avoid pain and seek pleasure or comfort. While pursuing those dreams may bring many some pleasure or comfort, it's not enough to override the pleasure or comfort derived from continuing on their current path of work.

Nor did I ever, at any given point, say there should be a hard cap on what any one person makes. Just that happiness with ones self can increase productivity and optimism. Which are both exceedingly good for the economy.

Agreed.

So adding a general better understanding of what happiness is, and at what point you can be happy and content without more money, is good for the economy. And there's a cheap, non-invasive way to do it; instill it into our children. The basics, along with a sense of security, I feel would make a better community as a whole. But that's just a byproduct of the root, which is the understanding that money != happiness.

I'm mostly OK with this. I guess where we differ is our polarized beliefs on the effect it can have on the economy. I think this happens much, much more than you're recognizing, especially in this day and age of "enablement". More kids are pursuing their dreams now than they ever have. And I believe more adults are doing so as well, even if doing so on a somewhat delayed schedule.


For what it's worth dude, we're the same person. First I wanted to be a doctor. Then I realized I cringe when hearing someone cry out in pain. Then I wanted to be a marine biologist, but realized there's no money in that unless you're in the top .2%. Then a cook, but same thing. Then a mortician, because it's a steady business.

On my way to one of these, I paid for myself by working as a phone jockey for a call center. Sharpened my skills, got promotions, jumped to better companies until I landed with the one I'm at now. Got promoted off the HelpDesk and into Medical Records Software analysis. Now, I've come as close to full circle as I can. I manage decision support, which consists of the alerts that come up for a providers when s/he's doing something potentially dangerous for the patient, and managing physician training and understanding of why those alerts exist. There's more to it than that, but knowing I had a hand in caring for the patient, and in some cases preventing death from physician ignorance, is overwhelmingly satsifying.

How interesting! People's stories about how they got to where they are can be so fascinating. That's cool that you got to where you were still involved in the medical field and making a difference. Kudos.
 
. Unfortunately automation is killing the middle class which makes the seperation of the classes an ever growing chasm. The economy will never be as healthy as it was.

No it's not.

Look at what "automation" and "technology" has done to Europe. While our middle-class has been destroyed the middle classes in Western Europe has actually increased. If automation really killed the middle class than advanced economies world side would be seeing a decline of their middle-classes. That just isn't the case.

The destruction of our middle-class has a number of factors. Automation is not one of them.
 
No it's not.

Look at what "automation" and "technology" has done to Europe. While our middle-class has been destroyed the middle classes in Western Europe has actually increased. If automation really killed the middle class than advanced economies world side would be seeing a decline of their middle-classes. That just isn't the case.

The destruction of our middle-class has a number of factors. Automation is not one of them.

Link?
 
Even the most optimistic economists are predicting massive job insecurity like we've never experienced going forward. Their outcomes just boil down to productivity increases adding growth(that's the good part I guess), income inequality continues to extend(the amount of people living in hardcore slums in the world such as Dharavi are expected to double in a few decades to 2 billion or so), globalization ramps up Mach-a-million more, people constantly entering and leaving the workforce to go train and re-train at schools, stress and anxiety pressures mount to levels we've never seen - that's literally their best case scenario in all the books that I've read. Madness is their best case scenario. So yeah, being healthy in every aspect of life could be paramount. I don't think humans are tooled all that well for excessive change so that should be fun to watch play out.

I think the reality is that *gasp* universal higher education has to be coming down the pike if we are really going all in with this "knowledge" based economic proposition and people are going to have to keep going back to school multiple times throughout their lives to pick up new skills to maintain a decent livelihood. But that's probably going to be a reality post bond market bubble blowup....so we'll worry about that in time. We'll have some fiscal cleaning up to do before then.
 
Even the most optimistic economists are predicting massive job insecurity like we've never experienced going forward. Their outcomes just boil down to productivity increases adding growth(that's the good part I guess), income inequality continues to extend(the amount of people living in hardcore slums in the world such as Dharavi are expected to double in a few decades to 2 billion or so), globalization ramps up Mach-a-million more, people constantly entering and leaving the workforce to go train and re-train at schools, stress and anxiety pressures mount to levels we've never seen - that's literally their best case scenario in all the books that I've read. Madness is their best case scenario. So yeah, being healthy in every aspect of life could be paramount. I don't think humans are tooled all that well for excessive change so that should be fun to watch play out.

I think the reality is that *gasp* universal higher education has to be coming down the pike if we are really going all in with this "knowledge" based economic proposition and people are going to have to keep going back to school multiple times throughout their lives to pick up new skills to maintain a decent livelihood. But that's probably going to be a reality post bond market bubble blowup....so we'll worry about that in time. We'll have some fiscal cleaning up to do before then.

Fun??? Lol. We have different definitions.

There will be increased suffering around the globe and increased government control as we lose our sovereignty. Moore's law. Increased global hacking of national and company secrets, with theft personal identification at almost an exponential rate.

Good times!
 
Even the most optimistic economists are predicting massive job insecurity like we've never experienced going forward. Their outcomes just boil down to productivity increases adding growth(that's the good part I guess), income inequality continues to extend(the amount of people living in hardcore slums in the world such as Dharavi are expected to double in a few decades to 2 billion or so), globalization ramps up Mach-a-million more, people constantly entering and leaving the workforce to go train and re-train at schools, stress and anxiety pressures mount to levels we've never seen - that's literally their best case scenario in all the books that I've read.

Which books?
 

https://davidcard.berkeley.edu/papers/skill-tech-change.pdf

The recent rise in wage inequality is usually attributed to skill-biased
technical change (SBTC), associated with new computer technologies.
We review the evidence for this hypothesis, focusing on the implications of SBTC for overall wage inequality and for changes in wage
differentials between groups. A key problem for the SBTC hypothesis
is that wage inequality stabilized in the 1990s despite continuing advances in computer technology; SBTC also fails to explain the evolution of other dimensions of wage inequality, including the gender

and racial wage gaps and the age gradient in the return to education.

and

While none of the available indicators of technological change is ideal,
all of the indicators suggest that IT-related technological change has been
going on since at least the 1970s and has continued throughout the 1980s
and 1990s. Moreover, there is some evidence (based on the size of the IT
sector, the pace of innovations associated with the Internet, and aggregate
productivity growth) that the rate of technological change accelerated in
the 1990s, relative to the 1980s. As we discuss later, this argument is
potentially important, since most of the rise in wage inequality over the
past 2 decades was concentrated in the period from 1980 to 1986
.

This might be more clearer:

https://www.nytexaminer.com/2013/01/an-inequality-debate-heats-up/

In fact—and now look back at the other lines in the figure above—according to Larry’s data, the low wage share of jobs has been pretty constant, maybe drifting up a bit, while the 50/10 wage ratio jumped sharply in the 1980s and stabilized, and high-wages (not shown) just keep climbing, breaking away from the pack. Meanwhile, mid-level jobs have been drifting down steadily for decades.

So, Autor’s SBTC explanation looks limited at best (more detailed work by Mishel et al find little support for it at all). Which raises a few important questions: First, if it’s not SBTC, then what is driving wage inequality, and second, does it really matter who’s right?

and

The change came around 1978, Mishel said, when politicians from both parties began to think of America as a nation of consumers, not of workers. President Jimmy Carter deregulated the airline, trucking and railroad industries in order to help lower consumer prices. Congress chose to ignore organized labor’s call for laws strengthening union protections. Ever since, Mishel said, each administration and Congress have made choices — expanding trade, deregulating finance and weakening welfare [and ignoring the minimum wage and the absence of full employment!!—JB] — that helped the rich and hurt everyone else. Inequality didn’t just happen, Mishel argued. The government created it.

The nail in the coffin is that since the 1970s, Europe's has become more egalitarian and wealth distributed (more) evenly while we have moved in the opposite direction. If technology has an adverse effect upon the middle-class then why hasn't Europe trended in the same way we have? Why hasn't the technology there killed jobs and redistributed wealth as it has here?
 
Good post, thriller.

A couple things. First, I have a hard time taking any economist who thinks theres growing gender inequality serious, unless they're talking about women getting richer than men.

since most of the rise in wage inequality over the
past 2 decades was concentrated in the period from 1980 to 1986.

The very same years Ronald Reagan raised social security on the middle class six times but not on the rich, then spent that and more into the pockets of the rich. Social security is the biggest wealth transfer scheme ever, but voters are too dumb to understand that money is fungible, so we vote benefits into our pockets while protecting the pockets of the rich where the money ultimately ends up.

Ending the growing inequality is as easy as removing the 15.3% welfare burden from the middle class. 15.3% is a ****ing big chunk of change to freely give to the wealthy.
 
The Thriller said:
The nail in the coffin is that since the 1970s, Europe's has become more egalitarian and wealth distributed (more) evenly while we have moved in the opposite direction. If technology has an adverse effect upon the middle-class then why hasn't Europe trended in the same way we have? Why hasn't the technology there killed jobs and redistributed wealth as it has here?

This is the piece I was curious about - that which says Europe's middle class has actually increased. Do you have anything for substantiation?
 
Soooo many indicators show our economy is on the rise. I even read an article today that it's ready to take off. So why does it still feel like it's crappy? Why does it still feel like we're in a recession?...


It's been touched on to some extent in previous posts, but not explicitly - - to a certain degree, how it feels now depends on what you're using as your baseline. If the past 25 years is your baseline, then it's now wonder that things are as crappy as they seem to you. But if the 1990's and 2000's were actually periods of extra-ordinary growth and expansion, then what's happening now is just regressing back to the mean.
 
https://davidcard.berkeley.edu/papers/skill-tech-change.pdf

and

This might be more clearer:
https://www.nytexaminer.com/2013/01/an-inequality-debate-heats-up/

and

The nail in the coffin is that since the 1970s, Europe's has become more egalitarian and wealth distributed (more) evenly while we have moved in the opposite direction. If technology has an adverse effect upon the middle-class then why hasn't Europe trended in the same way we have? Why hasn't the technology there killed jobs and redistributed wealth as it has here?

(sorry, too lazy to try to multi-quote)

interesting also, that the time frame mentioned in the articles Thriller quotes is the time frame that saw large numbers of women enter the workforce, and while the gender gap in wages has been slowly narrowing over the past 30 years, it does still exist.

So, technological change meant new jobs, many of which were filled by women entering the workforce for the first time. Family incomes rose because there were now two wage earners - not because they had to (which is more the case today) but because they could and it would enable the family to live a better life style. So that created increases in consumption, which in turn led to even more job creation. And eventually it got to a point where to afford what were deemed the necessities, it became imperative for families to have two wage earners.
 
(sorry, too lazy to try to multi-quote)

interesting also, that the time frame mentioned in the articles Thriller quotes is the time frame that saw large numbers of women enter the workforce, and while the gender gap in wages has been slowly narrowing over the past 30 years, it does still exist.

So, technological change meant new jobs, many of which were filled by women entering the workforce for the first time. Family incomes rose because there were now two wage earners - not because they had to (which is more the case today) but because they could and it would enable the family to live a better life style. So that created increases in consumption, which in turn led to even more job creation. And eventually it got to a point where to afford what were deemed the necessities, it became imperative for families to have two wage earners.

Can finally rep this. Moe is wise beyond her years.

Labor participation rate is THE headwind to our economy IMO. It had to peak at some point, and combined with tech taking the Lewis Turning Point good less skilled but high paying jobs will be the leading factor contributing to our European "decline".

I still don't doubt the drive for a richer life though, and see Americans working longer to compensate (for healthcare keeping us alive and kickin for so damn long). I know plenty people "working retired", and enjoying it!

It's all about the micro... we will adjust, bitching and moaning the whole way of course.
 
My perspective.
The economy was never better than it was from 2009 to 2011. Prices were low. If you wanted a job and actually would work, you had one. Everyone who thinks a healthy economy is when speculation and over consumption drive up the price of everything to the point that one has to live at their workplace in order stay afloat needs to reexamine their priorities. Prior to 2009 I felt like a slave and now I'm beginning to hear the slave master calling my name again. The "economy" isn't what it's cracked up to be.
 
Back
Top