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When Does a Player Cease Being a Prospect?

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homeytennis

Well-Known Member
That question has intrigued me this week. The moves this week paints everyone on the Stars outside of the guys with NBA contracts in the non-prospect category. William Howard signing a two way with the Rockets points that up. The Jazz kept Stanton Kidd over him out of training camp and then jettisoned Mr. Kidd. The signing of Rayjohn Tucker ("we beat out six teams for his services") and comparing him to Kevin Murphy, Pierre Jackson, Bryce Cotton, Jack Cooley, Brock Motum, Mo Almond, Bolomboy, Ty Wallace, Nate Wolters, Eric Griffin, Naz, Willie Reed, George King and Tyler Cavanaugh is an intriguing exercise. Also what makes Rayjohn more valuable than a team that has won 14 in a row? More valuable than William Howard? Tucker's and Kevin Murphy's GLeague stats are almost identical except Murph compiled his in 125 games and was a better foul shooter. What makes NWG, Oni, Bradley, and Niang prospects and the above list of players goners? Is it Quin proclaiming it or DL and JZ doing the same? Is there a matrix that starts dinging when a player passes from one side to another?
 
homeytennis said:
That question has intrigued me this week. The moves this week paints everyone on the Stars outside of the guys with NBA contracts in the non-prospect category. William Howard signing a two way with the Rockets points that up. The Jazz kept Stanton Kidd over him out of training camp and then jettisoned Mr. Kidd. The signing of Rayjohn Tucker ("we beat out six teams for his services") and comparing him to Kevin Murphy, Pierre Jackson, Bryce Cotton, Jack Cooley, Brock Motum, Mo Almond, Bolomboy, Ty Wallace, Nate Wolters, Eric Griffin, Naz, Willie Reed, George King and Tyler Cavanaugh is an intriguing exercise. Also what makes Rayjohn more valuable than a team that has won 14 in a row? More valuable than William Howard? Tucker's and Kevin Murphy's GLeague stats are almost identical except Murph compiled his in 125 games and was a better foul shooter. What makes NWG, Oni, Bradley, and Niang prospects and the above list of players goners? Is it Quin proclaiming it or DL and JZ doing the same? Is there a matrix that starts dinging when a player passes from one side to another?
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You just like starting threads don’t you.
 
I'm sure a lot of it is personality and work ethic. You also get to see a player in practice. Chances are if a guy isnt getting better and performing in practice, he isn't going to get better in games. So after you see a certain number of practices and workouts with a player you probably get a feel for their potential and their ability to realize it.
 
I was just wondering if there was a matrix that moved a player from one category or another. For example, why are Trey Burke, Bryce Cotton and Raul Neto on one side of the ledger vs. Conley, NWG, JWF and Oni? It struck me that our bench has been so bad that the five best players off the Stars or the Iowa Wolves could not have played as poorly.
 
homeytennis said:
I was just wondering if there was a matrix that moved a player from one category or another. For example, why are Trey Burke, Bryce Cotton and Raul Neto on one side of the ledger vs. Conley, NWG, JWF and Oni? It struck me that our bench has been so bad that the five best players off the Stars or the Iowa Wolves could not have played as poorly.
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CJ Miles was a prospect full of potential for like 8 years so...
 
I saw a guy named Garrison Mathews dropped 28 on the Heat for the Wizards in a win a couple of nights ago. Undrafted free agent from that basketball power Lipscomb that went to Summer League and impressed enough people that he made the team as a two guard. Those guys are out there.
 
homeytennis said:
I was just wondering if there was a matrix that moved a player from one category or another. For example, why are Trey Burke, Bryce Cotton and Raul Neto on one side of the ledger vs. Conley, NWG, JWF and Oni? It struck me that our bench has been so bad that the five best players off the Stars or the Iowa Wolves could not have played as poorly.
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NBA teams normally have full-sized players at every position, and the defense is tougher. The G-league is basically like Summer League. So players we're developing in the G-league have to be sharp enough at their position and skill set to be able to not get absolutely killed at the NBA level.

By NBA standards, NWG is a non-athlete. He's like that guy Kendall Marshall from UNC a few years back. I don't think NWG really has much of a future in the league. Guys are just going to run by him.

Miye Oni is a limited ball handler and creator on the ball. He hasn't been shooting that well in the G-league either. He's an NBA-caliber athlete and defender though.

JWF has the instincts, the handles, the shot creation and shot making to be a successful bench scorer, imo. He just needs to learn the NBA game and be able to share the ball. His main problem is his size. His limited size means that he probably won't be a switchable defender, but he seems to hold his own more or less in single coverage at the G-league level.

As Cy mentioned, it seems like a player is no longer a prospect when they stop improving, and they either reach or don't reach their potential as an NBA-caliber player.
 
Oni looks like he was sent from central casting to be a basketball player in a movie but right now he can't shoot to save his life. I agree with your take on NWG but then he turns in a game at the GLeague level that makes you go hmmm. JWF and Brantley appear to me to be prospects.
 
I think when the player is signed the team has an idea about a progress window ahead of time. SO basically it's a case-by-case basis and thats why you pay the scouts/training staff/analytics ppl.

really i think thats the important distinction to make is identifying players as projects instead of prospects.

somethign like the infamous frashilla draft analysis "four years away from being four years away", teams project windows/timeframes.

with 1st rd picks the window is often 3 years and then u have further safeguards..

look at Exum, he's really a prime example of how a players window can be altered by injuries...

i'd say also look at Ingles or Bojan on the other end of the spectrum. Pro's shows up in their mid-20's but still need a decent adjustment period to truly hit their stride.
 
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I noticed yesterday Brooklyn waived Henry Ellenson and David Nwaba. Ellenson was a first round pick in 2016 and Nwaba scrapped himself up through the GLeague. I guess the Nets are looking for someone in the 10 day contract range. Ellenson is still only 22 years old.
 
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